College Football Odds, Prediction for Miami vs Boston College: Canes to Cruise
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 03: Xavier Restrepo #7 and Key’Shawn Smith #5 of the Miami Hurricanes take the field prior to the game against the Bethune Cookman Wildcats at Hard Rock Stadium on September 03, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida.
Miami vs Boston College Odds
Let's take a look at the college football odds for Miami vs. Boston College and make a prediction for Friday's college football game.
The fan bases of these two Miami and Boston College likely feel very different about how their respective teams’ seasons have unfolded.
But at the end of the day, both the Hurricanes and Eagles are sitting at 6-5 heading into the season's last weekend.
Motivation is always questioned at this time of the year, especially for underperforming teams.
Still, there is a glaring difference in the strengths and weaknesses of the two, which should be made clear when these ACC opponents meet on Friday.
Miami started this season with high expectations that it (again) failed to live up to.
After starting 4-0, the Hurricanes fell apart epically against Georgia Tech before dropping four of their next six games.
The Hurricanes are now sitting at 6-5 in what will be another disappointing year, placing Mario Cristobal back in the same position as many of his predecessors.
Miami’s offense ranks 58th in Success Rate and 57th in Finishing Drives. They are the 33rd most Explosive offense in the country, with most of that coming through the passing game.
Through the air, the Hurricanes rank 50th in Success Rate and 34th in PPA. Miami passes the ball at the 44th-highest rate in the country (51%). After getting benched, Tyler Van Dyke is back as Miami’s starting quarterback following the injury to Emory Williams two weeks ago.
Defensively, the Hurricanes have been excellent on a down-to-down basis but poor at preventing opponents from Finsishing Drives. Miami is 28th in Success Rate allowed but 84th in Explosiveness allowed and 115th in Finishing Drives allowed.
Much of this success comes from the stout Hurricane rushing defense.
The unit is 16th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 12th in Rush PPA allowed. The passing defense isn’t great, ranking 49th in Pass Success Rate allowed, but they struggle with allowing explosive plays through the air, ranking 75th in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
Despite having the same record as Miami coming into this game, the attitude of the Boston College faithful is drastically different.
This Eagles team had a preseason win total of 5.5, which they surpassed to become bowl-eligible with a win over Syracuse at the start of November.
Over the past two weekends, things haven’t been as good for BC, with the Eagles dropping their last two games against Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh.
It hasn't been a miracle season for the Eagles, but they've shown encouraging improvement after starting the year with a loss to Northern Illinois and a far-too-close victory over FCS Holy Cross.
Boston College’s running game has powered almost all of their offensive success this season. The Eagles rank 70th in Success Rate and 69th in Finishing Drives on the ground. The Eagles rush at the 16th-highest rate in the country and do it quite well, posting the 22nd-best PPA, 28th-best Explosiveness and 39th-best Success Rate.
Passing-wise, Boston College ranks just 107th in Success Rate and 87th in PPA. However, they have occasionally made explosive plays in the passing game, ranking 53rd in Pass Explosiveness.
Defensively, the Boston College secondary has been a train wreck. BC ranks 117th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 126th in Pass PPA allowed.
The rushing defense has been passable, ranking 61st in Success Rate allowed, but the pass defense drags down the unit.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami and Boston College match up statistically:
Miami Offense vs. Boston College Defense
Boston College Offense vs. Miami Defense
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The most significant mismatch in this game is the Miami rushing defense against Boston College’s rushing offense. The Eagles want to run the ball often, but I don't see them succeeding against The U's stout front seven.
Thomas Castellanos and the Eagles’ passing game aren't consistent or efficient enough. Therefore, I don't think BC moves the ball well on Friday.
Additionally, while Van Dyke has struggled at times this year, Miami's offense has still been good enough most weeks.
I believe that Van Dyke will put together a showcase game through the air against a weak Boston College secondary in what might be his last game in Hurricane uniform.
Pick: Miami -8.5
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