National Championship Odds: Alabama Now the Odds-On Favorite

Sep 17, 2018 4:58 PM EDT
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Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (4) reacts after a game against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

  • Oddsmakers have adjusted their National Championship odds following Week 3.
  • Alabama is now listed as an odds-on favorite.
  • Auburn and Wisconsin both saw their odds significantly decrease.

Two top-10 teams lost in Week 3, which — as you’d probably guess — has had quite an effect on some college football futures. In Westgate’s latest odds update, both Auburn and Wisconsin are listed significantly lower than they were one week ago.

As expected, Alabama is the favorite once again, but its odds look a little different this week. The Tide are now at minus-money, meaning they’re implied to have a greater than 50% chance of winning the championship this season.

Table defaults to preseason odds. Click on a date to sort.

Here are the biggest winners and losers following Week 3:

Winners

Alabama: +140 to -125 (41.67% to 55.56% implied probability)

Week 3 @ Ole Miss: Won 62-7

It took only three weeks for the Tide to become odds-on favorites to win this year’s national championship. On top of their 55-point victory at Ole Miss on Saturday, their odds probably also benefited from Auburn’s loss to LSU.

Ohio State: +600 to +450 (14.29% to 18.18% implied probability)

Week 3 vs. TCU: Won 40-28

By beating a 15th-ranked TCU team in what was essentially a road game, the Buckeyes have inched into a near tie for the second-most likely team to win the title this season.

Iowa: +10000 to +5000 (0.99% to 1.96% implied probability)

Week 3 vs. Northern Iowa: Won 38-14

Considering Iowa was a 19.5-point favorite, this wasn’t exactly the most impressive Hawkeyes victory. But, with Wisconsin losing to BYU, the door has been opened for another Big Ten West team to try to run the table and earn a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Losers

Auburn: +1000 to +4000 (9.09% to 2.44% implied probability)

Week 3 vs. LSU: Lost 22-21

This probably doesn’t come as much of a surprise, but no team saw a bigger drop in title odds following Week 3 than Auburn. After losing the Tiger Bowl as a 10.5-point favorite, Auburn will probably need to win out — on a schedule that still includes road games at both Georgia and Alabama — to make the playoff.

Wisconsin: +2000 to +5000 (4.76% to 1.96% implied probability)

Week 3 vs. BYU: Lost 24-21

The only other top-10 team to lose on Saturday, Wisconsin watched its odds fall to +5000 this week. A one-loss season was already going to be a tall order for the Badgers as they travel to both Michigan and Penn State this year.

Now they’ll likely have to win both to even have a shot at a playoff berth.

Boise State: +8000 to +100000 (1.23% to 0.10% implied probability)

Week 3 @ Oklahoma State: Lost 44-21

Unfortunately for any Group of Five team, it’s going to take an undefeated season to have a shot at the playoff, and that possibility was thrown out of the window for Boise State on Saturday.

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