NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Blues vs Blue Jackets (Friday, December 8)
Via Ben Jackson/Getty Images. Pictured: Boone Jenner #38 of the Columbus Blue Jackets celebrates with goaltender Elvis Merzlikins #90 of the Columbus Blue Jackets after defeating the Chicago Blackhawks 7-3 in a game at Nationwide Arena on November 22, 2023 in Columbus, Ohio.
Blues vs Blue Jackets Odds
| Blues Odds | -144 |
| Blue Jackets Odds | +120 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -124 / -102 |
It might be only December, but a win now is worth just as much as it is in March and April.
That's the mentality the St. Louis Blues will need to adopt if they hope to keep pace with the Western Conference teams ahead of them.
The Blues have fluctuated in and out of the playoffs through the early part of the season, getting surpassed by the Nashville Predators on Thursday night.
Now, St. Louis is tasked with getting past a feisty Columbus Blue Jackets squad to kick off the weekend. The Jackets have dropped three in a row coming into this inter-conference showdown, albeit with improved offensive production.
That should help them keep things close against a Blues squad that doesn't prioritize defensive zone coverage.
Here's a look at the Blues vs Blue Jackets odds and my betting pick for Friday, December 8.
It seems like eons ago, but the Blues are just a few years removed from winning their first Stanley Cup in franchise history.
Sadly, their brand of hockey is just as unsustainable now as it was then. St. Louis has struck a delicate balance between production and output, consistently putting them on the edge of regression. Although they've enjoyed some success this season, they don't have the underlying metrics supporting sustained wins.
The Blues rely heavily on special teams scoring and goaltending to keep them competitive.
At 5-on-5, St. Louis has compiled the third-worst expected goals-for rating, posting a dismal 44.0%. Further, they've overachieved relative to that benchmark, posting an actual rating of 48.2%.
The difference between those metrics is concerning. That implies the Blues are consistently outplayed, relying on timely scoring and above-average goaltending to stay competitive.
Unsustainability concerns are also reflected in the team's PDO, with shooting and save percentages combining to go north of 1.000 at 5-on-5 and across all strengths.
These issues are even more pronounced over St. Louis' recent sample. Over their last five games, the Blues expected goals-for rating is an egregious 38.0%. Ineffective defensive play appears to be the biggest issue impacting their metrics, as the Blues have given up an average of 12.0 high-danger chances per game while getting out-chanced in all but one of those outings.
The Blues don't have the structure to offset their impending regression.
Analytically, the Jackets rate very similarly to the Blues.
Columbus sits fourth-last in expected goals-for rating, albeit with nearly a 2.0% cushion over their counterparts on Friday night. The Blue Jackets have established a mark of 46.0% to start the season, with fewer five fewer wins and six fewer points.
The other factor worth considering is that Columbus sits on the opposite end of the progression-regression spectrum. Columbus' actual goals-for rating is below expected, implying the team is due for some puck luck over their coming games.
We could already be seeing those metrics starting to balance out. Granted, the Blue Jackets haven't won a game since Dec. 1, but they are starting to get their analytics in order.
As a team, Columbus has attempted 11 or more high-danger chances in three straight, out-chancing their opponents in two of three. Moreover, the value of those metrics skyrockets when adjusted for opponent.
That modest three-game stretch came against the Boston Bruins, Los Angeles Kings and New York Islanders, all of whom occupy a playoff spot.
We haven't seen an increase in scoring despite the improved production. As such, that would suggest that the Blue Jackets are due for amplified scoring, as output balances with underlying metrics over the coming games. As a team, Columbus has a forgettable 8.0% shooting percentage at 5-on-5 over its last three, below its regular season average of 9.3%.
More opportunities will eventually lead to more scoring, and there's a good chance that comes on Friday night.
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Blues vs. Blue Jackets
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's imperative to approach the Blue Jackets' and Friday's showdown with the Blues cautiously.
St. Louis enters the battle as short road favorites, but at least some of their success is contraindicated in their season-long metrics. Moreover, over the last couple of weeks, we've seen a deteriorating side, hinting towards an extended correction phase while the Blues figure things out.
Plus-money on the home side isn't worth passing up in this scenario. Scoring will start to jump to reflect the Jackets' improved production metrics, and the Blues aren't the type of team to limit anybody. Consequently, don't be surprised if we see a surge in Jackets' scoring starting Friday night.
This line is moving in favor of the Blue Jackets, but we'd still play this side up to a pick'em.
Pick: Blue Jackets ML (+120)
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