NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Blues vs Flames (Tuesday, January 23)
Scott Rovak/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Faulk #72 of the St. Louis Blue
Blues vs. Flames Odds
| Blues Odds | +134 |
| Flames Odds | -162 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +110 / -134 |
Here's everything you need to know about the St. Louis Blues vs. Calgary Flames on Tuesday, Jan. 23 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Two squads on the edge of the Western Conference playoff picture take to the ice for a pivotal showdown on Tuesday night.
The Calgary Flames welcome the St. Louis Blues to the Scotiabank Saddledome in what should be a tightly contested affair.
Although they've lost two in a row, the Flames have been burning bright lately. Calgary is 7-4-0 over its last 11games to make up ground in the wild-card race. Heading into Tuesday night's action, the Flames sit just four points back of the Nashville Predators for the final postseason berth.
Still, the Blues are close behind. The 2019 Stanley Cup Champions are just five points back of the eighth seed – albeit with two games in hand over their hosts.
As is the case in today's NHL, that means that this game could result in a four-point swing, tipping the balances in the Blues' favor as we race toward the All-Star break.
St. Louis is not an offensively gifted team. And they never really have been.
During their recent run to the title, the Blues' success was premised on stout defensive structure and an opportunistic offense. Although some personnel have changed over the years, the principle remains the same: limit chances against, and take advantage of special teams' scoring to stay competitive.
That remains evident in their current metrics.
The Blues have a high-danger chance-phobic offense. They've attempted the seventh-fewest scoring opportunities and the fifth-fewest high-danger chances, contributing to the fifth-lowest expected goals-for in the league.
Those shortcomings have been even more evident over their recent sample. St. Louis has been held to seven or fewer high-danger chances in five straight with an abysmal average of 6.0. Likewise, scoring chances are hovering around 17.2 over the same five-game sample.
Nevertheless, St. Louis is a respectable 2-2-1 over that stretch despite running a gauntlet of top Eastern Conference teams. Over that stretch, nine of their 15 goals have come via special teams while Blues goaltenders have combined for an above-average 90.8% save percentage.
Whether or not the Blues make the playoffs remains to be seen. But one thing becomes increasingly clearer as the season progresses: St. Louis will leave and die by its systems.
For now, those metrics point toward more low-scoring games on the horizon.
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After a blistering stretch in which they won 10 of 14 games, real life is starting to set in for the Flames again.
The truth Flames fans don't want to hear is that the team was never as good as their record implied. Calgary continues to produce sub-optimal metrics, and it was just a matter of time before their puck luck ran out.
Based on their current performances, we're expecting that spiral to continue against the Blues tonight.
Since the calendars flipped to 2024, Calgary has been one of the worst analytics teams in the NHL. In 10 games, the Flames have compiled the fourth-worst expected goals-for rating, getting out-played in all but one of those contests.
As expected, their wins have come at an unsustainable price. The team's PDO has inflated to an untenable 1.037, the sixth-highest across that span. Moreover, they're substantially overachieving relative to expected with their actual goals-for rating of 56.8% nearly 14.0% higher than their expected benchmark of 42.9%.
Both offensive and defensive metrics have corroded, leaving the Flames with no sanctuary to seek refuge in. Calgary has been limited to eight or fewer quality chances in four of their last five, getting out-chanced in every one of those contests. Opponents have skating freely in the Flames' defensive zone, averaging 10.6 high-danger chances over the five-game sample.
Calgary is not nearly as good as they've shown, and a two-game losing skid could be the start of a much longer trend.
Blues vs. Flames
Betting Pick & Prediction
Neither team excels analytically, but the Blues have had more success with their model than the Flames have with theirs. Simply, Calgary is consistently outplayed and has outlasted its metrics.
That's going to catch up with the Flames over their coming games.
We've got two plays loaded in this matchup tonight.
First, neither team has a noteworthy offense. Both teams rate as some of the worst in the league offensively, implying Tuesday's battle will be a low-scoring one.
Secondly, the Flames are regression candidates, and their ineffective play will come back to haunt them.
As such, we're playing the Under 6.5 at -134 or better and the Blues at anything higher than +130. As of this writing, Caesars has the best price at +143.
Picks: Under 6.5 (-134 at FanDuel) | St. Louis Blues (+143 at Caesars)
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