NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Lightning vs Oilers (Thursday, December 14)
Jonathan Kozub/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Leon Draisaitl #29 and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins #93 of the Edmonton Oilers
Lightning vs. Oilers Odds
| Lightning Odds | +132 |
| Oilers Odds | -160 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -118 / -104 |
It's incredible what an eight-game winning streak can do to turn around a season.
Just a few weeks ago, the Edmonton Oilers were down and out, with rumors swirling of their impending roster implosion.
Eight straight wins later, Edmonton is riding high and fighting its way back into the Western Conference playoff picture.
The same can't be said for the team they are facing on Thursday night.
The Tampa Bay Lightning had to get through the early part of the campaign without their Vezina-winning goaltender, Andrei Vasilevskiy. However, Vasilevskiy's return hasn't been the magical solution Tampa Bay hoped it would be.
The Bolts are 4-6-0 since their star netminder returned to the crease. Moreover, at his best, Vasilevskiy's performances just mask the symptoms that plague the Lightning and their underwhelming metrics.
The Bolts still get a lot of respect in the betting market, but most of that is undeserved.
Let's look at the Lightning vs. Oilers odds for Thursday, Dec. 14, with my prediction and betting pick.
You'd assume from the Lightning's recent track record that they are fundamentally sound analytically, but that isn't the case.
Tampa Bay is currently operating with a 49.7% expected goals-for rating, putting the Bolts in the bottom half of the league. Although they've outplayed their last two opponents on the road, their game scores look less impressive when adjusted for opponent.
The Seattle Kraken and Vancouver Canucks were both outplayed on home ice, but neither team has been an analytics darling.
Seattle has been the better of the two, but they are still skating around with the 15th-rated expected goals-for percentage. The Canucks have been worse, getting outplayed on a nightly basis and sitting 19th in the same category.
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Although the Lightning have gotten the best of both of those opponents, they've put forth some lackluster efforts since embarking on their road trip. Tampa Bay has been held to a combined 25 high-danger chances over their previous three contests. Those metrics won't hold up against a potent Oilers side, especially after we factor in the goaltending issues.
In an attempt to salvage the Lightning's season, it appears that Vasilevskiy rushed himself back following surgery.
At the end of September, it was confirmed that the stalwart had offseason surgery and was expected to miss the first two months of the season. Then, Vasilevskiy returned between the pipes on Nov. 24, slightly ahead of schedule, but his efforts have been sub-optimal. The Russian has a disappointing 89.4% save percentage and a 2.74 goals against average.
Things look even worse from an advanced metrics perspective; Vasilevskiy has -1.8 goals saved above average and just three quality starts since returning.
Too many factors are working against the Lightning to take them seriously in this one.
After a tumultuous start to the season, the Oilers have finally settled into their surroundings.
As if eight straight wins weren't enough, Edmonton also has the metrics to validate ongoing success. They currently have the best expected goals-for rating in the league, but even that status doesn't do the Oilers justice.
Let's dig into what their on-ice product has looked like lately.
Edmonton has outplayed its opponents in nine straight games, seemingly getting better each time out. The Oilers have eclipsed a 60.0% expected goals-for game score in six of their last seven, with a cumulative 61.8% rating.
The only time over that seven-game sample the Oilers fell below 60.0%, they posted a 59.6% mark against the perennial powerhouse Carolina Hurricanes.
"Assertively" is the only word to describe Edmonton's play at both ends of the ice. Over that same stretch, Oilers skaters are averaging 13.4 high-danger and 26.7 scoring chances per game. Conversely, opponents are mustering just 7.7 and 20.0 opportunities, respectively, falling below eight high-danger chances in all but two of those outings.
There's little hope the Lightning can reverse course on their recent downturn against an infallible Oilers team.
Lightning vs. Oilers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Oilers are the superior team in virtually every facet of the game right now, and they should have no problem getting past the Bolts.
The Lightning's offense is faltering, and goaltending hasn't been the difference the team needs it to be to stay competitive.
Edmonton's goaltending still doesn't fall into the elite side of the spectrum, but it's inconsequential with the way this team is operating upfront.
All things considered, we're taking a stance on the home side, backing Edmonton on the moneyline up to -170.
Pick: Oilers (-160 at FanDuel)
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