Back in May, hedge fund manager Michael Burry (yes, the investor Christian Bale played in The Big Short) posted on X that the combined public debuts of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could raise as much capital as the roughly 300 tech companies that went public during the 2000 dot-com boom. He attached a chart from that era showing the rise and the crash that followed, and the point was hard to miss: massive capital raises don't always end the way everyone hopes.
Two months later, one of those three names has already tested his theory.
On Kalshi, where traders track which companies will officially confirm an IPO this year, that leaves a narrower, more interesting question: which of the remaining hopefuls can actually close the deal before December, and which ones are more likely to spill into 2027?
Two Names That Already Answered the Question
SpaceX isn't the only one whose outcome barely needs a market anymore. The rocket company priced its Nasdaq debut on June 12 at roughly $1.75 trillion, and shares have traded above the offer price ever since.
Jersey Mike's is right behind it. The sandwich chain took a majority stake in back in 2024 filed its IPO publicly on July 2 and opened its roadshow on July 20.
Anthropic Is Setting the Pace
That leaves Anthropic, OpenAI, and Discord to fight over the rest of the year: and right now, Kalshi traders give Anthropic the best shot, with its contract sitting at 72%, up two points recently. The company has earned that lead:
- It confidentially filed an S-1 with the SEC on June 1, right after closing a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation.
- Its underwriters, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, began scheduling meetings with prospective investors in mid-July, a step that typically arrives a few weeks ahead of a public roadshow.
- Reports point to a possible Nasdaq listing as early as October, built around a reported $47 billion annualized revenue run rate.
Anthropic looks like the frontrunner, but it isn't at the finish line. Investor meetings still have to turn into a roadshow, a roadshow into pricing, and pricing into an actual first day of trading: and none of that happens in a matter of days.
OpenAI Bought Itself More Time
OpenAI's contract sits at a modest uptick after weeks of sliding.
For a while, the company looked like it was racing Anthropic to the public markets on a similar fourth-quarter timeline. That changed in late June, when the New York Times reported that OpenAI is now leaning toward 2027, with CFO Sarah Friar reportedly telling colleagues she'd rather get the company's massive compute commitments and public-company reporting systems in order first.
Discord Keeps Missing Its Own Deadlines
Discord's number has drifted down a point as the company works through its second missed target of the year. It filed confidentially back in January aiming for a March debut, but a SEC review backlog tied to last year's government shutdown pushed that into the back half of 2026.
A fall listing is still plausible on paper, but between the valuation reset and a timeline that keeps slipping, traders aren't in a hurry to bid the odds back up.
So where does that leave us?
Anthropic has real momentum and a plausible shot at closing before the year ends; OpenAI and Discord look more like stories that carry into 2027. None of them is likely to make it official in the next few weeks. But with roughly five months left on the board, and one of the three already moving through roadshow prep, "unlikely soon" and "unlikely this year" aren't quite the same thing.
