The Baltimore Orioles host the New York Mets on July 8, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Mets head to the road to face an Orioles team who just swept the Braves. New York enters as -125 road favorites.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mets vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Mets vs Orioles Prediction
- Mets vs Orioles pick: Mets ML (Play to -150)
My Mets vs Orioles best bet is Mets moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Orioles Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9.5 -119 / -105 | -126 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 9.5 -119 / -105 | +105 |
Mets vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Clay Holmes (NYM) | Stat | RHP Brandon Young (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | W-L | 0-3 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 2.99/4.18 | ERA /xERA | 7.02/4.78 |
| 4.37/4.12 | FIP / xFIP | 4.83/4.59 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.98 |
| 1.9 | K-BB% | 1.4 |
| 53.4% | GB% | 49.1% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 100 | Location+ | 105 |
Sean Paul’s Mets vs Orioles Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
Things haven’t gone the Orioles' way often this year, as they sit in last place in a stacked AL East race.
The main issue is pitching, and it’s pretty concerning that Brandon Young continues drawing starts with such mediocre results. He's started four games for Baltimore and pitched to a 7.08 ERA in 16 2/3 innings.
While Young's 4.83 xERA and 4.78 FIP suggest positive regression, I'm not convinced it makes a difference.
Regular traffic on the bases has been a theme in Young's four outings. In each start, he allowed at least six baserunners and sports a 5.08 BB/9.
If you're on the opposite side of me here, I'll give you a reason to feel better about Young. He has a wholly unsustainable .392 BABIP.
When the ball is in play, terribly unlucky things are happening for Young, and that'll level out. I just don't think it matters if he continues walking that many batters, though.
From June 15 to now, the Orioles have a 103 wRC+, which ranks 14th in the MLB. They also rank ninth with 29 home runs, while walking just 7.4% of the time and punching out over 24% of the time.
The power-hitting approach won't work in this matchup, so it'll be interesting to see if Baltimore adjusts.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The Mets just finished a series in which it snagged two out of three games from their rivals, the New York Yankees.
Will they have a similar fate against another AL East foe?
The Mets sure have an eye for finding cheaper starting pitching options in free agency and turning them into studs. Last year, it was Sean Manaea and this year, it's Clay Holmes, who's made a smooth transition from reliever to starter.
On the surface, Holmes is due for some regression. He has a 2.99 ERA with a 4.18 xERA and 4.37 FIP. Holmes is dealing with what all ground-ball-heavy starters do: The underlying numbers tend to overstate the regression's impact.
He's stranding 83% of baserunners, which is a crazy number, while striking out just 7.33 per nine and walking 3.76 per nine. The constant tightrope act from Holmes leads to shorter outings, but he typically leaves with the game in reach for the Mets' offense.
And that's really all you can ask for if you're betting on or rooting for the Mets.
Offensively, New York endured a rough stretch during their June swoon, posting a 96 wRC+ since June 15. If you mess with the numbers a bit and move the date to June 25, a smaller sample, the Mets rank seventh with a 113 wRC+.
I think the more recent stretch is more likely to be where the Mets' offense sits for the rest of the season.
The one missing link is Francisco Lindor. He has an 82 wRC+ in those 10 games, and New York's offense doesn't begin cooking until the captain starts hitting.
Patience is pivotal against a pitcher like Young, and the Mets have to work at-bats. They have the 27th-worst walk rate in MLB over their past 10 games, so that has to improve.
Lastly, the Mets' injured bullpen is thankful for the day off. It's a much-needed day off, as Holmes typically ensures the Mets' bullpen has to record at least 12 outs. He hasn't finished six full innings in his last four outings and has done so in seven of his 17 starts.
The bridge to star closer Edwin Diaz might be unbalanced, but hopefully, the Mets build enough of a lead to make that a moot point.
Mets vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
I love the number we're getting with the Mets here. I expected them to be bigger than -125 favorites, even on the road.
The Orioles lost three out of Young's four outings, and he didn't give them much of a chance in them.
I feel like this game goes the same way.
Back the road team.
Pick: Mets ML (Play to -150)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I like Mets moneyline here.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm staying away from run-line bets.
Over/Under
I'm also not betting on game totals for tonight.
