NCAAF Odds, Picks for Louisiana Tech vs Nebraska

Nebraska (1-2) will be looking to get back to .500 this weekend when it hosts the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-2).

Both teams are looking at the possibility of playing without their starting quarterbacks, but the effect will be much more pronounced on one side.

Let’s take a look at my preview for Louisiana Tech vs. Nebraska and my best bet for this game.

In Week 3, quarterback Hank Bachmeier left the game with a shoulder injury in the second half. Jack Turner is the backup, and he played well in relief, going 8-of-12 passing for 140 yards and one touchdown.

However, the defense didn't hold up, as Louisiana Tech fell to North Texas, 40-37.

Sonny Cumbie didn’t give much indication as to the status of Bachmeier earlier this week:

"We are still trying to determine the extent of the injury and we will know more as the week goes in terms of his availability and ability to throw the football and how effective he can be with that shoulder injury."

The Bulldogs’ offense has been explosive this year, but not particularly good overall. The unit ranks 102nd in Success Rate and 98th in Finishing Drives, but is 22nd in Explosiveness.

Louisiana Tech, overall, has a pretty balanced approach in terms of play-calling, but the rushing game has been slightly better this year, ranking 84th in Success Rate compared to 108th in the passing attack.

Defensively, Louisiana Tech ranks 74th in Defensive Success Rate and 101st in Finishing Drives. The Bulldogs' pass defense has been great this year, coming in at 26th in the country in Success Rate and 30th in PPA. The run defense ranks just 99th in Success Rate and 107th in PPA.

The Cornhuskers lean heavily towards the run — especially with their quarterback issues — so Louisiana Tech may be in for a tough day defensively.

The Cornhuskers have a quarterback injury of their own that they're dealing with.

Jeff Sims has an ankle injury and is listed as questionable. Matt Rhule hasn't given any indication of who the starting quarterback may be on Saturday, but he did have good things to say about backup Heinrich Haarberg.

Rhule did say that Sims took about 50% of the team’s snaps in practice earlier this week.

The quarterback injury may not be the worst thing for the Cornhuskers. This season, Haarberg has outplayed Sims so far, putting up 0.21 EPA per drop back compared to -0.39 for Sims.

This has been heavily influenced by the amount of turnovers Sims has committed, as well as the five sacks he's taken. Haarberg just needs to run the offense without making these mistakes to effectively replace Sims.

The season got off to a rough start for the Cornhuskers, but they were able to rebound with their first win of the season last weekend against Northern Illinois.

Nebraska ranks 65th in Offensive Success Rate this season and 34th in Finishing Drives. The Huskers run at the eighth-highest rate in the country and rank 44th in Rushing Success Rate and 49th in Rushing PPA.

This will be a huge mismatch against Louisiana Tech’s defense, which hasn't been able to stop the run whatsoever.

Nebraska’s defense has certainly stepped up this year. It ranks fourth in Rushing Success Rate and 54th in Passing Success Rate.

Since Louisiana Tech ranks 121st in PFF rushing grade, I think that Nebraska will be able to stifle the Bulldogs on offense if they're not able to throw the ball.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisiana Tech and Nebraska match up statistically:

Louisiana Tech Offense vs. Nebraska Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	87	4
Line Yards	106	69
Pass Success	106	29
Havoc	111	66
Finishing Drives	104	54
Quality Drives	53	76

Nebraska Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	47	99
Line Yards	30	100
Pass Success	105	24
Havoc	104	88
Finishing Drives	36	102
Quality Drives	94	95

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	32	29
PFF Coverage	6	51
Special Teams SP+	84	96
Middle 8	35	61
Seconds per Play	27.0 (70)	30.6 (120)
Rush Rate	53.2% (60)	65.2% (8)

There’s a strong possibility that we see a backup quarterback on both sides in this matchup.

However, I think this matters much more for Louisiana Tech than it does for Nebraska.

Nebraska’s defense has hands down been the best unit this season among those taking the field in Lincoln.

I believe that the Cornhuskers’ defense will hold up against Louisiana Tech’s offense, while being able to run the ball effectively to victory.

I like taking Nebraska to win big here, as it'll cover the spread and stifle the Bulldogs’ offense.