NCAAF Odds, Picks for Missouri vs Kentucky: SEC Preview
Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Brady Cook (Missouri)
Missouri vs Kentucky Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
The Missouri Tigers will travel to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday night.
This SEC East battle will go a long way toward determining who finishes second in the division, assuming Georgia continues to dominate.
After a tough home loss last weekend, Missouri will be looking to get back on track. However, Kentucky is also coming off of a loss and has one of the better defenses the Tigers have faced this season.
That being said, Kentucky does have a weakness on defense, and I think Missouri is the right team to take advantage of it. So, let’s take a look at my best bet for Missouri vs. Kentucky on Saturday, Oct. 14.
Mizzou has been a great story this season as it made its way to 5-0 before falling short against LSU last weekend. The Tigers were unable to slow down LSU’s great offense, but Missouri’s offense showed it was also capable of scoring in bunches.
This week, the Tigers will face a much stronger Kentucky defense. Even still, Missouri's offense has been solid this year and could put up another strong performance.
Mizzou ranks 23rd in the country in Offensive Success Rate, 38th in Finishing Drives and 57th in explosiveness. That's largely the result of a strong passing attack, which has been led by Brady Cook and Luther Burden III.
Cook is averaging 0.33 EPA per dropback this season and has thrown 13 touchdowns with just two interceptions.
Burden, his top target, already has 54 catches for 793 yards on the year and ranks second and first across all of the FBS in those categories, respectively.
The Tigers own the 13th-best Passing Success Rate and the 19th-best Passing PPA in the country. Their rushing game has been effective on a down-to-down basis as it sits 46th in Success Rate, but it isn't explosive by any means. In fact, Missouri ranks 121st in rushing explosiveness and 88th in Rushing PPA Allowed.
Defense was the strength of this team last year, and that looked to be the case again until LSU dismantled the Tigers. Missouri ranks 29th in Success Rate but is 112th in explosiveness allowed and 122nd in Finishing Drives.
Most of LSU’s success came through the air, which has been a common theme among Missouri's opponents this season.
Mizzou ranks 11th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, but it'ss 72nd against the pass. Kentucky has thrown the ball often this year but hasn’t done it particularly well. So, this matchup likely suits Mizzou’s defensive style.
Kentucky also started 5-0 but was railroaded by Georgia last week in a game that was never close.
Devin Leary, the experienced transfer quarterback, provided hope when he arrived in Lexington this year. However, he's yet to deliver the results Kentucky fans were hoping for. Kentucky ranks 88th in Passing Success Rate and, as a whole, the Wildcats offense ranks 92nd.
The one place Kentucky has succeeded this year has been in explosive plays. The Wildcats lead the country in rushing explosiveness and sit 27th in passing explosiveness to rank third overall.
Defensively, Kentucky hasn’t been as strong as many believe, ranking 74th in Success Rate on the year. Its rushing defense has been good, sitting 35th in Success Rate and 30th in PPA Allowed, but the passing defense has been an issue.
The Wildcats' rank of 110th in Passing Success Rate Allowed will be an issue against a Missouri offense that passes the ball often and has had a lot of success doing so this year, so keep an eye on this potential mismatch.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Missouri and Kentucky match up statistically:
Missouri Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 103 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 13 | 51 | |
| Havoc | 68 | 68 | |
| Finishing Drives | 38 | 58 | |
| Quality Drives | 57 | 63 |
Kentucky Offense vs. Missouri Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 70 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 105 | 12 | |
| Pass Success | 90 | 95 | |
| Havoc | 62 | 54 | |
| Finishing Drives | 36 | 122 | |
| Quality Drives | 75 | 83 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 34 | 93 |
| PFF Coverage | 77 | 57 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 96 | 16 |
| Middle 8 | 16 | 101 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.7 (64) | 29.9 (114) |
| Rush Rate | 51.4% (85) | 48.0% (100) |
Missouri vs Kentucky
Betting Pick & Prediction
If I’m relying on one of these quarterbacks to get the job done, it’s not Leary based on what we've seen this year.
Kentucky's offense has struggled, and I believe Mizzou’s defense is strong enough against the run that it'll force the Cats into a lot of long passing down situations to make life difficult on Leary.
On the other side, Kentucky’s defensive struggles against the pass will provide Cook an opportunity to exploit. I think Missouri's offense will find success through the air.
I like backing the Tigers to cover and pick up a big road win.
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