Welcome to Week 9.
I have two spots circled for the Noon slate, including an ACC matchup against an overvalued Mustangs squad and an SEC spot between two winless conference squads.
Read on for my Week 9 NCAAF Picks, and check out the whole piece here.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Wake Forest +3.5 |
  | 12:45 p.m. | Arkansas +1.5 |
Wake Forest +3.5 vs. SMU
12 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
Until last week (a road upset over a banged-up Clemson team playing with its backup quarterback), SMU had been extremely disappointing, failing to exceed oddsmakers' expectations in all but one game.
That one cover came against lowly Stanford in a game where the Mustangs pulled away late to get outside the number.
However, they outgained Stanford by only 16 yards in a game in which the Tree had 10 penalties and a -2 turnover margin. Stanford also failed to score twice inside the SMU 5, with one of those possessions ending in a 96-yard pick-six.
Even the week prior, against a Syracuse team also playing with a backup quarterback, the Orange actually finished with a 389-370 net yardage advantage. Still, they couldn't overcome a -2 turnover margin and a 2-for-5 performance on fourth-down attempts.
My primary point here is that SMU is not the same caliber of team as last year's playoff bunch.
This week, the Mustangs find themselves in a brutal situational spot, having to travel back out east for a second straight road game (with a noon ET kick) following the emotional upset of Clemson to exact ACC Championship revenge with a match against ACC favorite Miami on deck.
Meanwhile, Wake Forest is coming off a bye, which should enable the Demon Deacons to get much healthier after dealing with a slew of injuries before their two-week break.
I also value bye weeks more highly for teams such as Wake that experienced mass roster and staff turnover in the offseason. Keep in mind that after its first bye week earlier in the season, Wake Forest lost in overtime on a failed two-point attempt against undefeated Georgia Tech. Tech, meanwhile, needed a last-second field goal to force overtime.
The Wake offense continues to blossom under Jake Dickert, who should benefit from installing even more new looks with a brand-new team.
Additionally, the Demon Deacon defense might be one of the most underrated units in the country.
Not enough people are talking about the job the new defensive coordinator, Scottie Hazelton, is doing on that side of the ball. Wake has seemingly nailed most of its transfer portal additions.
Across similar strengths of schedule, Wake Forest actually has a +1.3 net yards per play margin compared to SMU's +0.8.
The defense also ranks in the top-20 nationally in yards per play and Pass Success Rate allowed, which are key against SMU's pass-heavy offense.
The Wake defense also ranks in the top 10 in pressure rate, which could spell trouble for Kevin Jennings, who has seen his turnover-worthy play rate spike immensely when under pressure over the past two seasons.
Additionally, the SMU offense is built on getting chunk yards after the catch (top-15 in the country in YAC average), but that might prove more difficult against a Wake Forest defense that ranks sixth in that department.
I'm assuming we see quarterback Robby Ashford back under center. Still, there's a chance Deshawn Purdie gets some looks after the uber-talented transfer looked spectacular in a surprise start for a banged-up Ashford before the bye week.
If it is Ashford, we'll have to avoid a couple of boneheaded throws, but he has at least excelled at avoiding sacks (just one taken over his past 33 pressures), which is key against an SMU defense that hunts sacks as well as any defense in the country.
There will be opportunities to attack this SMU coverage group.
After accounting for the spot, I like anything over a field goal with the Deacs, who should also benefit from a fully healthy Demond Claiborne in the backfield. Let's hope he doesn't blow too many assignments in pass protection, where he really struggles.
Pick: Wake Forest +3.5 or Better
Arkansas +1.5 vs. Auburn
12:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
From a pure numbers perspective, I don't see much value in this line, as I only project the Hogs as slight favorites.
However, I love the spot in a battle of two clones who remain winless in SEC play after a number of close calls across two of the top-five most difficult schedules in the country to date.
For what it's worth, Arkansas has played a marginally tougher schedule and has a slightly higher yards-per-play margin (+0.7 to +0.3).
After four straight heartbreaking losses to ranked opponents, I'm not sure how Auburn gets off the mat for an early kick on the road against 2-4 Arkansas.
The vibes couldn't be lower after watching the sidelines at the end of the loss to Missouri. It seems as if the Tigers are waiting for bad things to happen, and who could really blame the kids after such a tragic streak?
They now won't even come close to reaching any of their high preseason expectations for a team many considered a legit sleeper in the SEC. Head coach Hugh Freeze may have lost the locker room, and I'm not sure he'll be able to rally the troops.
In fairness, Arkansas has also been extremely unfortunate in close games against ranked foes.
However, unlike Auburn, it recently fired its head coach, giving the reins to Bobby Petrino, who has seemingly said all of the right things to keep his team motivated.
People I trust close to the program (including my podcast co-host Collin Wilson) are adamant that this team still cares and will continue to fight. That matters against a potentially deflated opponent that may or may not get off the metaphorical bus.
Arkansas has a top-five offense nationally by almost any metric in large part due to Petrino's play-calling and the electric Taylen Green, who might be the nation's most underrated quarterback. If he played for a better team, he'd find himself right in the thick of the Heisman conversation.
I do worry a bit about some potential turnover regression, but his mobility will come in handy against the elite Auburn front.
He can buy time to take advantage of a vulnerable Auburn secondary that ranks outside the top 90 nationally in yards after catch and Pass Success Rate allowed.
On the other side of the ball, Auburn's offense is a complete mess, ranking 112th nationally in yards per play.
While it will undoubtedly have success on the ground against an Arkansas defense that rates horribly in every aspect (130th in yards per play allowed), I'm still not sure the Tigers can ultimately keep up.
The difference in quarterback play in this matchup is as drastic as you'll see in any SEC game all season, regardless of whether Auburn sticks with Jackson Arnold (who has been nearly unplayable) or goes with Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels, who Freeze said will split reps with Arnold this week.
The spread isn't egregious by any stretch. However, I have much more confidence in Arkansas showing up at home under Petrino.
Plus, the Hogs will have a significant special teams edge. Per SP+, Arkansas ranks 11th nationally in that department, while Auburn ranks 121st. That could play a major role in a close game, which is all these two snakebit teams seem to play.
On the injury front, Arkansas won't have Cam Ball up front along the defensive line due to injury, but should get back Danny Saili to help mitigate that loss.
More importantly, Auburn lost star center Connor Lew (who will play at the next level) to a season-ending injury last week. True freshman Kail Ellis (one of only two players in all of college football who will play the entire season at 17 years old) took his place last week (40 snaps) and really struggled.
Auburn might go back to the kid or possibly shift starting right tackle Mason Murphy inside. Either way, that's not ideal, especially with a potentially new starting quarterback on the road.
Woo Pig.
Pick: Arkansas -1 or Better
