NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Avalanche vs Oilers (Saturday, March 16)

Saturday, March 17

10 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Avalanche Odds	+115
Oilers Odds	-135
Over / Under	6.5 -150o / +125u

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Here's everything you need to know about the Colorado Avalanche vs. Edmonton Oilers on Saturday, March 16 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.

This. Is. It.

Two Western Conference heavyweights and Stanley Cup frontrunners take to the ice at Rogers Arena as the Edmonton Oilers host the Colorado Avalanche.

Neither team is looking toward the postseason yet, fully intent on making a run at their respective division titles. The Oilers are nine points back of the Vancouver Canucks in the Pacific Division, albeit with three games in hand. Colorado is even closer, tied with the Winnipeg Jets in the Central Division, but with one more game played than their Canadian counterparts.

That raises the stakes in this juggernaut battle. Neither team can concede ground, but as we'll see, one team has a significant advantage on Saturday night.

Colorado is riding an avalanche of momentum into this one. Winners of five in a row, the 'Avs have reserved their best hockey for the end of the year. More importantly, they've upped their analytics game lately, tilting the ice in their favor and validating their current success.

The Avalanche are delivering these exceptional results thanks to improved play on both ends of the ice. Nathan MacKinnon is leading the offensive charge, helping to team exceed 10 high-danger chances in three of their past four. Similarly, scoring chances are on the rise, with the 'Avs eclipsing 27 in all but one of their last four. But those numbers don't do the 'Avs justice. In total, Colorado is averaging 12.0 high-danger and 30.0 scoring opportunities across that four-game sample.

We also have to give the Avalanche credit for their defensive zone play. Over that same span, only one team has exceeded eight high-danger chances and no one has surpassed 23 scoring opportunities. Consequently, opponents are down to 7.8 high-danger and 17.8 scoring chances over Colorado's previous.

As expected, resounding play has shifted Colorado's expected goals-for rating onto the elite end of the spectrum. The Avalanche have a 57.6% rating over their modest sample, outplaying their opponents in three of four. There's no stopping that momentum in Edmonton.

The Oilers have been the pre-eminent analytics team throughout this season. With less than 20 games left in the regular season, Edmonton ranks first in expected goals-for rating, posting a 57.1% benchmark at 5-on-5. Their dominance is also reflected in their scoring and high-danger chance ratings, sitting second and first, respectively. However, we've seen those metrics deteriorate more recently, putting them at a disadvantage against the 'Avs.

Their results might not reflect this, but the Oilers are in the midst of one of the worst stretches of the season. Edmonton has been outplayed in three of its past five. Sadly, the teams they've outplayed over that stretch are the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets and Buffalo Sabres. Otherwise, the Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins and Boston Bruins have all bested the Oilers, despite taking losses in all three contests.

As expected, this has elevated the Oilers' PDO beyond sustainable levels, putting them on a collision course with regression. Edmonton's combined shooting and save percentages are up to 1.04 over its previous six, implying a correction phase is imminent. In conjunction with ineffective play, the Oilers are poised for a letdown at home against the Avalanche.

Analytically, these teams are speeding in opposite directions. The 'Avs have improved their efforts more recently, delivering top-end performances against tough competition. Conversely, the Oilers are barely scraping by a handful of non-playoff teams.

We would expect the betting market to be more aligned with the 'Avs in this one, which hasn't been the case. Nevertheless, we're making a principled stand on backing the Avalanche as underserving underdogs versus the Oilers. We're playing Colorado at +110 or better, but there's better value than that out there. We could also this line continue to shift in Edmonton's favor, leaving an edge in waiting closer to puck drop.

Pick: Avalanche ML (+115 via PointsBet)