NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Hurricanes vs Rangers (Sunday, May 5)
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Hurricanes vs. Rangers Odds
| Hurricanes Odds | -115 |
| Rangers Odds | -105 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 (+100 / -120) |
Here's everything you need to know about the Hurricanes vs. Rangers Game 1 odds for Sunday, May 4 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Rangers are priced as underdogs to win the series, despite winning the Presidents Trophy and sweeping the Capitals in the first round. New York was also an underdog when these teams met two years ago for many of the same reasons but proved doubters wrong with a series win in seven games.
The Hurricanes will look to prove that they're a better team than the one that the Rangers eliminated in a seven-game series two years ago. Carolina's strong even-strength process has been consistent year after year under coach Rod Brind'Amour, at times making it feel like it has been unlucky to not produce meaningful playoff runs.
The inability to create the quality of chances that lead to actual goals has been a flaw in recent playoff exits, though. Last year's sweep at the hands of the Panthers was evidence of that, even though the games looked extremely close.
The Hurricanes' overall even-strength process arguably looked more middling than usual in the first round against the Islanders. Carolina scored 3.80 goals per game while generating 3.54 expected goals. The Canes offense looks far more potent this season than in recent years. Jake Guentzel adds some serious scoring punch, and Seth Jarvis has taken significant steps forward.
The Hurricanes finished the regular season with the league's second-best power play at 26.9% and the best penalty kill in the league at 86.4%.
They'll be without Brett Pesce for the early part of this series, which does hurt their defensive upside at even strength.
Frederik Andersen is expected to start in goal for the Hurricanes. He put up +2.3 GSAx and a .912 save percentage in five appearances against the Islanders.
Peter Laviolette's Rangers are +135 underdogs to win this series, making them the largest underdog that a Presidents Trophy-winning team has been in recent memory. It is widely expected that the Hurricanes will own more of the play at even strength. New York's job will be to make sure that doesn't turn into goals for Carolina.
Laviolette will look to prevent Carolina's time of possession from turning into into the type of chances that Igor Shesterkin cannot handle. Pressured shots from the outside aren't going to go in, and neither will those that Shesterkin can square up on.
The offensive play of the Rangers' current roster has consistently been underrated from an analytical standpoint. New York does a great job creating chances with east-west movement for goaltenders, which has led to plenty of actual goals despite a modest amount of actual chances on net.
The special teams battle will be huge in this series. The Hurricanes were the team that actually ranked marginally higher in both special teams categories. Still, many observers would lean toward the Rangers winning the special teams battle. Part of the reason why: Shesterkin might drastically outperform Andersen in terms of 5-on-4 save percentage.
Shesterkin played to a +4.4 GSAx and a .931 save percentage in the first round. Chances are that he will outperform Andersen, and the series will likely come down to just how well he plays.
Hurricanes vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Rangers faithful have passionately argued their disagreement toward the betting prices on this series. How can the Presidents Trophy-winning team be an underdog to anybody, let alone after a convincing 4-0 sweep in the first round?
Well, the gap in regular-season points between these teams is accounted for by their records in shootouts. On top of that, the Hurricanes were forced to play five different goaltenders and got just 18 games from Andersen during the regular season. The Hurricanes also had a +63 goal differential to the Rangers' +54.
Even if you're a non-believer in analytics, those factors should help make a clear case towards the thought that the Hurricanes are stronger than the 111 points they won during the regular season would suggest.
The Hurricanes hold one of the deepest offensive cores in the league which has allowed them to dominate even strength play this season. That is the greatest reason that they're considered to have a very good chance in this series. The Canes also have excellent special teams, and it is not a lock that New York will own an edge in that regard.
My belief really isn't that the Rangers are "frauds," but that the Hurricanes enter the series looking like a slightly more well-rounded team. I'm going to start by betting a half-unit on the Hurricanes to win Game 1 at -115, putting my faith into the idea that the Hurricanes get a result by driving the majority of the play.
There's also value in backing Martin Necas to record over 2.5 shots on goal. He should be able to take advantage of favorable matchups in this game and enter after somewhat of a quiet series against the Islanders in terms of shots on goal. Look for him to bounce back in this series in terms of shot production, though, and this price is better than we saw last series.
Picks
Carolina Hurricanes Moneyline -115 (bet365, Play to -115)
Martin Necas Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -110 (DraftKings, Play to -115)
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