The Nobel Prizes began announcing their winners this week across different categories, though particular attention is being placed on the Peace Prize, which will be revealed on October 10. While the award always draws global interest, this year’s announcement is especially anticipated due to the nomination of U.S. President Donald Trump.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the winner in a live broadcast starting at 5 a.m. ET. Although the number of nominees is never officially confirmed, this year’s unofficial count lists 244 individuals and 94 organizations under consideration.
For those interested in wagering on the Nobel Prize, one operator now makes it possible to make real money on the outcome in all 50 states. That operator is Kalshi, which blends traditional financial systems with innovative prediction markets.
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2025 Nobel Peace Prize Odds, Favorites
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | +270 | 27% |
| International Court of Justice | +670 | 13% |
| Mediterranean Sea Rescue organizations | +733 | 12% |
| Yulia Navalnaya | +1010 | 9% |
| Doctors Without Borders | +1150 | 8% |
| Greta Thunberg | +1566 | 6% |
| Donald Trump | +2400 | 4% |
| Vanessa Nakate | +3233 | 3% |
The leading favorite is Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERR), a network of roughly 10,000 volunteers who distribute medicine, food, and shelter amid the war that broke out in the African nation in 2023 — considered by the United Nations (UN) to be the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophe.
The ERR holds a 27% chance on Kalshi. Next comes the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN’s main judicial body responsible for settling legal disputes between states, with a 13% probability. The ICJ has gained significant prominence in recent years due to conflicts such as the war in Ukraine and the deepening crisis in the Middle East.
With a 12% chance, users can find the Mediterranean Sea Rescue organizations. This group represents various organizations engaged in rescuing thousands of asylum seekers and refugees who attempt to cross from Africa to Europe each year in search of a better future.
The worsening of global wars and humanitarian crises has also intensified the work of Doctors Without Borders, the NGO that provides medical assistance in more than 70 countries. It stands at 8% to win the award.
Among individual nominees, Yulia Navalnaya — widow of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, whose death in prison in February 2024 sparked international outrage — leads with a 9% chance. Since her husband’s death, Navalnaya has continued his human rights and anti-corruption work.
Further down the list is Donald Trump, who seeks to become the fifth U.S. president to win a Nobel Peace Prize, following Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter, Woodrow Wilson and Theodore Roosevelt. The Republican leader has repeatedly said he deserves the honor, though his odds sit at just 5% on Kalshi.
Sharing similar odds is Greta Thunberg, the Swedish activist known for her climate change advocacy and, more recently, her peace activism regarding the conflict in Gaza. Other names with lower chances include Ugandan climate activist Vanessa Nakate, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Belarusian activist Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
