The New York Mets host the San Diego Padres on September 18, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Padres vs Mets Prediction
- Padres vs Mets picks: Over 8.5 (play to 9.5)
My Padres vs Mets best bet is Over 8.5 (play to 9.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Mets Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 9 -105o / -115u | +105 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 9 -105o / -115u | -125 |
Padres vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Randy Vasquez (SDP) | Stat | RHP Jonah Tong (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-6 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 3.72/5.59 | ERA /xERA | 8.49/5.40 |
| 4.94/5,62 | FIP / xFIP | 6.06/4.57 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 1.71 |
| 1.4 | K-BB% | 1.9 |
| 39.1 | GB% | 34.3 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 101 | Location+ | 86 |
Sean Paul’s Padres vs Mets Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Can Tong Turn it Around?
The Mets' rotation is undergoing a youth movement. Brandon Sprout, Nolan McLean, and Jonah Tong are now drawing starts for a squad that desperately needed a boost in the rotation.
Two of the three have looked dominant: McLean and Sprout. However, Thursday’s starter, Tong, is having a tougher time transitioning from the minors.
Tong failed to finish the first inning in his last outing versus the Rangers, boosting his ERA to 8.49. The highly touted 22-year-old also posted a 5.40 xERA and 6.06 FIP through his first three big league outings.
The issue for Tong is walking hitters. He's issuing 5.40 free passes per nine and walked four hitters versus the Reds and three versus the Rangers. You could chalk some of that to the adjustment to the bigs and nerves, sure. But I'm a bit worried about Tong's fastball performing like it did in the minors.
The Mets' offense is the only reason they still have a playoff spot as of now. New York is hitting at the right time, ranking fourth in MLB with a 133 wRC+ over its past 21 games.
They have no shortage of power, ranking in the top six in homers with 31 and in isolated power with a .187. Juan Soto and Pete Alonso are providing the power supply. Soto has eight homers in his past three weeks, and Alonso has gone yard six times. While Francisco Lindor isn't hitting for power, he's gotten on base at a .400 clip. When Lindor sets the table for the big boppers, it can lead to some crooked numbers.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Contact Kings
If the regression ever sets in for Padres starter Randy Vasquez, this might be the game. He's somehow skated around a 5.59 xERA and a 4.94 FIP to keep his ERA at 3.72. It's a miracle that Vasquez hasn't dealt with more issues, given that he strikes out 5.18 batters per nine while walking 3.38.
The Padres' offense has shown gradual improvement over the last month. They rank 13th in MLB with a 110 wRC+, which is a major boost compared to them ranking outside the top-20 for much of the last two months. Even during their struggles, the Padres didn't strike out often, and their strikeout rate is at 21.1% over their past three weeks.
I'm a bit surprised that San Diego can rank as a top-half of the sport with Manny Machado posting a 60 wRC+. That's why lineup depth is so valuable and the Padres adding Ramon Laureano and Ryan O'Hearn added two more solid bats to an already deep lineup.
The Padres have also found their power stroke, ranking 11th with a .170 ISO and 12th with 27 home runs. The best sign is Fernando Tatis Jr. finally rediscovering his power. He seemed to be stuck on 18 homers for nearly a month, and he's drilled five in his last 20 games. If Tatis is hitting for power, the Padres become a very dangerous team.
Padres vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
I want the over here. We're looking at the Mets — who have the scariest top-three hitters of any team in baseball and the Padres — who seem to be just scratching the surface of their offensive upside.
On the flip side, I have zero faith in either pitcher. While Tong posted a 1.43 ERA in 22 minor-league outings, he only pitched in two games above AA, making him very green. He still needs to refine his command and his elite changeup loses potency if he's not commanding his fastball.
I still view him as a work-in-progress. But I can't back Vasquez, either. I have no clue how he's evaded regression, but the Mets have the plate patience and power to destroy the unimpressive righty.
Pick: Over 8.5 (play to 9.5)
Moneyline
No play.
Run Line (Spread)
No play.
Over/Under
I like the over.
Padres vs Mets Betting Trends
