The NBA playoffs are ongoing, but several teams are already looking toward the future and the upcoming NBA Draft lottery.
Think you know which NBA team will have the luxury of picking first overall? If so, consider trading on prediction markets.
To get started, sign up at Kalshi and trade based on which team you believe will win the 2026 NBA Draft lottery.
If you're new to Kalshi, you can use any of our links to claim our exclusive sign-up offer: Trade $10, Get $10! This welcome bonus can be used to be on a variety of different prediction markets ranging from sports to politics!
While all sports drafts are important, the NBA draft has the slimmest margin for error. There are only two rounds, meaning each pick can make a huge impact.
Of the 14 teams that failed to make the playoffs, which has the best chance to pick first overall? Let's dive into the possibilities below.
Which Team Has The Best Chance To Win The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery?
Kalshi traders feel the Brooklyn Nets (15%) have the best chance of winning the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery. The Indiana Pacers (14%) and the Washington Wizards (14%) aren't far behind, and the uncertainty about which team will actually win has opened the door to finding great trading value in this market.
"Yes" contracts for those wishing to trade Brooklyn are only 15 cents, with Indiana and Washington around the same price at 14 cents. Since every winning contract pays $1, every correct "Yes" contract for any of these top-three teams will payout nearly 7x.
The Nets, Pacers, and Wizards each have a 14% chance to win. The Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings aren't far behind at 11.5% apiece, and the Memphis Grizzlies fall in line at 9%.
Overall, there's value to be found all over this Kalshi market with 11 teams trading between 4-15%.
How Does The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery Work?
The 2026 NBA draft lottery will be conducted in a way that discourages teams from full-on tanking, even though the worst regular-season records still have the best mathematical probability of winning the first overall pick.
All 14 NBA teams that have missed the playoffs have a chance to win the top selection. Essentially, there are 1,000 unique four-number combinations that can be drawn from 14 ping pong balls (numbered 1-14). The worse a team's record, the more four-number combinations it will receive.
The top four picks are selected first. If a four-number combination of a team that has already been awarded a pick is drawn, the result is omitted, and a redraw takes place. Once the top four have been chosen, the remaining teams receive picks 5-14 in reverse order based on regular-season record.
When Will This Kalshi Market Conclude?
This market is set to close and expire after the Pro Basketball Draft Lottery officially happens on Sunday, May 10th, 2026. On the market page itself, Kalshi has stated that it will close by Monday, May 25th, 2026, at the latest, but it would be surprising if it took that long to settle.
Kalshi also provides a list of sources that could be used to verify the outcome, including AP, ESPN, Fox Sports, The Wall Street Journal, and the Governing League
