The Charlotte Hornets (2-1) and Miami Heat (2-1) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. The game will broadcast live on FDSSE.
The Heat are 6-point favorites over the Hornets on the spread (Heat -6), with the over/under set at 241.5 total points. Miami is a -230 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Charlotte is +185 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Hornets vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, October 28.
My Hornets vs Heat Prediction
- Hornets vs Heat pick: Bam Adebayo Over 9.5 Rebounds (-120)
My Hornets vs Heat best bet is on Bam Adebayo over 9.5 rebounds, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Hornets vs Heat Odds
| Hornets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 241.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 241.5 -110o / -110u | -230 |
Hornets vs Heat NBA Preview
This is not sustainable, but let's put these metrics out here anyway.
Through the first week of the NBA season, here is where the Heat rank in the following categories:
- Points: 3rd
- Pace: 1st
- Offense: 10th
- Defense: 4th
- Net rating: 3rd
The Hornets are 1st, 6th, 2nd, 10th, and 2nd, respectively.
Sustainable? Maybe somewhat, maybe not at all.
However, with both teams, I bet the over on win total this season, needing Miami to get Over 36.5 wins, and Charlotte over 25.5.
The reason for Miami is mostly what we've seen. Erik Spoelstra is back to an elite coach level, which he largely hasn't been since the 2023 NBA Finals.
Also, a roster that is more complementary to one another — with one of the most complementary stars in the league in Bam Adebayo leading the way — and Tyler Herro being out always opens up opportunities for everyone else, as it has for years.
More on that at a later date.
As for Charlotte, they're more talented than meets the eye — less so without Brandon Miller — but still a team that makes sense on paper. You have a dynamic playmaker, shooting, pace, and the right coach to lead this team to outperforming expectations.
Injury-wise, no Herro or Kasparas Jakucionis for Miami. Charlotte will be without Miller, Josh Green and Grant Williams.
Hornets vs Heat Prediction, Betting Analysis
Adebayo's scoring is up and down, so I typically look for other props to bet on him.
Last game, I was on his rebounds under, which looked good until deep into the third quarter, when the Knicks couldn't buy a bucket outside of Jalen Brunson.
This time, I'll actually flip and take his over. He's struggling to score the basketball, but will be potent with this shot diet if he just starts hitting shots.
On the glass, however, he's Over 9.5 in two out of three games and is going up against the hard-playing Moussa Diabate-Ryan Kalkbrenner center rotation.
Given the pace, he'll have a lot of rebounding opportunities, even if this could be a sweat.
Plus, although Kel'el Ware starts, he has yet to log more than 23 minutes. If this hits 10.5 rebounds or is juiced beyond -140, I question its worth.
Elsewhere, the Hornets' Collin Sexton has been a semi-Heat killer over the years. He is averaging 18 points against Miami for his entire career, going Over 17.5 points in six of eight games.
Sexton has scored 21 and 20 in his last two, coinciding with Miller's injury, when he's seen an uptick in usage. At 18.5, I might pass on it, but there's still a 17.5 out there on DraftKings.
Pick 1: Bam Adebayo Over 9.5 rebounds (-120, bet365)
Pick 2: Collin Sexton Over 17.5 points (-131, DraftKings)
Heat vs Hornets Betting Trends
