The Dallas Mavericks (5-13) and Miami Heat (11-6) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EST from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Heat are 8.5-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Heat -8.5), with the over/under set at 241 total points. Miami is a -350 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Dallas is +275 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mavericks vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Monday, November 24.
My Mavericks vs Heat Prediction
- Mavericks vs Heat pick: Kel'el Ware Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-110, FanDuel)
My Heat vs Mavericks best bet is on Kel'el Ware over 20.5 Points + Rebounds, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Mavericks vs Heat Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -105 | 241 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -115 | 241 -110o / -110u | -350 |
Mavericks vs Heat NBA Preview
The Miami Heat are back!
This is the high end of what I expected coming into the season, in which I took Erik Spoelstra as a longshot future to win Coach of the Year and bet the Heat over 36.5 wins with an alt over 39.5 wins, and a sprinkle at 45.
There's a non-zero chance this is a 48-win team that's a top-five seed, which I think is ultimately the formula for Spo to win his first Coach of the Year award following the conclusion of the Jimmy Butler saga.
Miami, at 11-6, is fourth in the Eastern Conference, with a 7-1 home record this season and four straight wins heading into tonight.
They're also 6-6 against teams .500 or better, which is tied for fourth in the Eastern Conference.
The Dallas Mavericks, at 5-13, are going in the other direction. They're 2-12 against teams .500 or better, and also 7-11 against the spread.
The really worrying sign is that Dallas is just 1-3 on the road, which means they've played 14 of 18 at home and are still where they are.
Miami, at 12-5 ATS, is the second-best such team in the league.
The Heat have the NBA's third-best ATS record at home, 7-1, behind New York and Phoenix.
To make matters worse — we think — for Dallas, Tyler Herro (ankle/foot) is expected to make his season debut tonight.
Andrew Wiggins (hip) and Nikola Jovic (hip) missed Sunday's win in Philly. Both statuses will be updated during the afternoon.
Terry Rozier (Feds) is still out.
Anthony Davis (calf), Kyrie Irving (knee), Dereck Lively (foot) and Dante Exum (knee) are all out for Dallas. Brandon Williams (back) is questionable to play.
Mavericks vs Heat Prediction, Betting Analysis
I like Kel'el Ware over 20.5 points + rebounds, which I'm surprised is still the number available right now.
I get that Bam Adebayo is back, and that Herro is returning, but due to the lack of bigs, Ware — statistically — should be Herro-proof.
His role will be essential regardless, because he's the team's only true center aside from Bam, who now toggles between the four and five.
Ware is over 20.5 PR in eight straight, and he's gotten 23, 34 and 36 PR in the games since Bam has returned, probably because Adebayo leads the NBA in defensive boxouts per game with 2.7.
He looked more like a tall man than a big man before the last week or so, but he's been playing like a real deal man in the middle as of late.
With no AD and Lively, he should eat again, and this has ladder potential.
Pick: Kel'el Ware Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-110, FanDuel)
Spread
I'm not betting either side of the spread in this matchup.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline as well.
Over/Under
My Heat vs Mavericks betting prediction is on Kel'el Ware to go over his Points + Rebounds total.
