Tuesday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 11 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More
Photo credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mario Hezonja
In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, plus analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight’s slate:
- Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons (-10.5), 7 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards (-4.5), 7 p.m. ET on TNT
- Charlotte Hornets (-8) at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat (-5.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
- New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls (-1.5), 8 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors (-8.5) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
- Toronto Raptors (-8) at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
- Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks (-8), 8:30 p.m. ET
- Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz (-2.5), 9 p.m. ET
- Houston Rockets (-2.5) at OKC Thunder, 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT
- Portland Trail Blazers (-9.5) at LA Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET
All data as of 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Tuesday NBA Most Public Bets
- Rockets -2.5 at Thunder: 80% of bets
- Mavericks -8 vs. Suns: 77%
- Over 230.5 in Rockets-Thunder: 75%
- Hornets -8 at Cavs: 73%
- Heat -5.5 vs. Sixers: 72%
Tuesday NBA: Injuries to Know
There are way too many injuries to highlight anything specific here; that’s what happens in the last two days with teams either out of the playoffs or locked into a specific seed.
Boston, for example, is resting seven of its top-eight players. Joel Embiid and J.J. Redick are out for the Sixers. The Utah Jazz could elect to rest some guys.
You get the point: Injuries are the key to everything tonight for the betting and DFS slates. To make things easier, we’re tracking everything here.
Tuesday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with different roles for players out of the playoff race, there’s a ton of value on tonight’s NBA DFS slate. I mean, ridiculous value.
Even a +6.0 Plus/Minus is a very valuable mark on DraftKings, and there are TEN players with a mark above +10.0. Sheesh.
Here are some of the guys at the top:
- Mario Hezonja ($5,700) at Bulls: +16.62 Projected Plus/Minus
- Jemerrio Jones ($3,400) vs. Blazers: +16.50 Projected Plus/Minus
- Robert Williams ($3,000) at Wizards: +15.17 Projected Plus/Minus
- Daniel Theis ($3,200) at Wizards: +14.68 Projected Plus/Minus
Hezonja is an auto-play if there ever was one. (More on him below.)
Just play him; trust us.
The Celtics are also going to provide a ton of value, too: They’re locked into the 4-seed in the East and will rest all of their players. No, seriously — Kyrie Irving, Al Horford, Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart, Marcus Morris and Aron Baynes.
For those at home, that’s seven of their top-eight players.
That means a ton of guys priced at the near minimum will have starting roles and playing a ton of minutes and use possessions. It’s hard to fail in those circumstances, so load up on Boston tonight.
Tuesday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently 11 player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.
One of those is Mario Hezonja to go over his 6.5 rebound prop.
Hezonja has been a DFS god of late, playing point guard for some reason for the Knicks and putting up ridiculous lines. He put up a 16-16-11 triple-double two games ago — in Houston, of all places — then followed it up with a 30-6-5 line at home against the Wizards.
He’s expected to play point again tonight, and he’s been getting huge minutes for a Knicks team that’s trying to get to July as quickly as possible. They’ll likely let him do his thing again tonight, and he’ll get a Bulls team that’s missing most of its players and ranks 28th in rebound rate this year.
#SuperMarioOvers is a real thing tonight.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Tuesday NBA Staff Favorite Bets
Matt Moore: Lakers +9.5 vs. Blazers
Lost in the hubbub about the Nuggets’ tank job on Sunday was this: The Blazers almost lost, at home, to a team that was openly trying to tank and that beat them two days before.
That’s a bad look.
C.J. McCollum is still getting the rust off and Alex Caruso, of all people, has been red-hot for whatever you call this goulash of pathetic the Lakers roster is comprised of right now.
These guys play hard, regardless of talent, and it turns out that matters a lot.
Rob Perez: Wolves +8 vs. Raptors
I absolutely do NOT trust Nick Nurse saying “nobody is sitting tonight.” I trust that this is factually correct, but he does not specify how many minutes the starters will play.
This is beyond a meaningless game for them, so I don’t expect the main rotation guys to be in there for anything more than 20 to 25 minutes. There’s no reason to justify keeping them in there longer.
The Raptors’ bench could still start for half the teams in the league, but I’ll take eight points during the final home game of the season on Fan Appreciation Night any day of the week.
John Ewing: Hornets -8 at Cavs
Charlotte is trying to sneak into the playoffs while Cleveland has been eliminated from postseason contention for a while.
Teams with motivation late in the season (April) have been good bets when facing bad opponents, which means it’s been profitable to bet a team like the Hornets when they’re road favorites.
Tuesday NBA Pro System of the Day
Today, our own John Ewing spotted an interesting trend about favorites in Games 81-82 of the season. Those teams have been profitable historically:
Ewing took it even further and found better value on favorites that have seen a one-point line move in their favor, as well as road favorites. See the piece for more information.
Tuesday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Grizzlies at Pistons: The Pistons are 21-14 ATS as favorites.
- Celtics at Wizards: The under is 24-15 in Wizards home games.
- Hornets at Cavs: The Hornets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
- 76ers at Heat: The Heat are 15-23-2 ATS at home.
- Knicks at Bulls: The Bulls are 14-26 ATS at home.
- Warriors at Pelicans: The Pelicans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Raptors at Wolves: The over is 26-19 when the Wolves are dogs.
- Suns at Mavericks: The Mavs are 23-17 ATS at home.
- Nuggets at Jazz: The under is 25-15 in Nuggets away games.
- Rockets at Thunder: The under is 12-3 when the Thunder are dogs.
- Blazers at Lakers: The Blazers are 30-17-1 ATS as favorites.