After tonight, we will know all of the first-round NBA Playoff matchups, as the Hornets, Magic, Warriors, and Suns battle for the final two spots. The Hornets have had the Magic's number this season, and they will look to continue that with LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller leading the way.
Meanwhile, US Olympic teammates Stephen Curry and Devin Booker will look to lead their teams into a first-round matchup with the Thunder. However, it may be the role players who have a major impact on the game.
Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Hornets vs. Magic and Warriors vs. Suns tonight.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Hornets vs Magic
The Angle: Ball & Miller Help Hornets Clinch Playoff Berth
LaMelo Ball Over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists
Ball could not buy a 3-pointer on Tuesday as he went 2-for-16 from deep. Yet he led his team past Miami in a game he was fortunate not to be ejected from (or subsequently suspended). He finished with 30 points, five rebounds, and 10 assists.
Ball has pulled down five rebounds or more in each of his past four games, and he is averaging 5.4 rebounds in his past eight games against the Magic. After flirting with four to five assists for several weeks, Ball has now had six assists in nine of his last 10 games and eight assists in seven of them.
Ball has two double-doubles (+240) in that span, and he also had a game with 13 assists against the Magic this season. If he has another one tonight, he will likely clear his rebounds and assists line as well. Ball has had 13 RA in four of his last seven games against the Magic. He has also cleared this line in six of his last eight games, and he is in a good spot for that trend to continue.
Pick: LaMelo Ball Over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists
Brandon Miller 20+ Points
In a game where several of his teammates struggled from the perimeter, Miller made five of his 10 3-point attempts and scored 23 points. The 23-year-old finished the season averaging 20 points per game for the second time in three years. He has reached that mark in six of his last 10 games while averaging 19.7 points per game.
Miller has also scored 20 points in six of nine career games against the Magic. He has a 27% usage rate while shooting 47% from the field and 44% from three in those games. If Kon Knueppel continues to struggle from the field and/or gets benched again, Miller will be needed to score once again.
Pick: Brandon Miller 20+ Points
The Contrarian SGP: Bane Over & Charlotte to Cover
Desmond Bane 20+ Points
On a night where Paolo Banchero struggled from the field and Franz Wagner battled foul trouble, Desmond Bane tried his best to keep the Magic's offense afloat against Philadelphia. He scored 34 points on 10-for-16 from the field and 4-for-6 from deep. Typically, that had not been the case when Banchero and Wagner are both available, as he has averaged 16.7 points per game when playing with both of them this season.
However, he has scored 25 points or more in five of his last nine games when playing with Banchero and Wagner. Additionally, he has scored 21 and 24 points in his last two games against Charlotte. Whether Banchero and Wagner are better tonight, Orlando will need a big game from Bane to keep pace with Charlotte.
Pick: Desmond Bane 2o+ Points
Hornets -3.5
Oddsmakers are expecting a close game tonight, but all four meetings this season have been decided by 15 points or more. The Hornets have won the last three in December, January, and March. That coincides with their stretch in which they have been a top-five unit on offense and defense since the turn of the calendar year.
Charlotte has also been the better team against the spread at 50-33, while Orlando is 37-45-1 ATS this season. Now, the Hornets are surging while the Magic look dysfunctional, and Jamahl Mosley could be coaching his last game with the team with a loss tonight. If the trend of one team winning by double digits continues tonight, I'm going to bet it is because of the Hornets.
Pick: Hornets -3.5
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+750)
- LaMelo Ball Over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists
- Brandon Miller 20+ Points
- Desmond Bane 20+ Points
- Hornets -3.5
Compounding Angle (+2800)
- LaMelo Ball Over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists
- Brandon Miller 20+ Points
- Desmond Bane 25+ Points
- Hornets -9.5
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Warriors vs Suns
The Angle: Supporting Cast Will Make an Impact
Gui Santos Over 12.5 Points
The Warriors defeated the Clippers on Wednesday behind another legendary performance from Curry, who scored 27 of his 35 points in the second half. However, Gui Santos was one of the players who kept the Warriors within striking distance, setting up Curry's heroics. Santos scored 12 of his 20 points in the second half on Wednesday night.
He is averaging 17.4 points over his last nine games while scoring 15 points or more in six of them. He also scored 18 points in the last meeting with the Suns, which the Warriors also rallied to steal in the fourth quarter.
Santos has played 30 minutes in seven of Golden State's last nine games, carving out a role in Steve Kerr. His versatility should keep him on the floor tonight against a Suns team that uses a guard-heavy lineup as well. That should put him in line to score 15 points or more again.
Pick: Gui Santos 12.5 Points
The Contrarian SGP: Role Players Will Be Needed
Royce O'Neale Over 10.5 Points + Rebounds
On Tuesday, Phoenix played without Grayson Allen, who is questionable again tonight, along with Mark Williams. Royce O'Neale played 24 minutes and had seven points and eight rebounds. Given their positions and with Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks both available tonight, Allen's availability is more tied to O'Neale's minutes, but he will also be needed if Williams is ruled out.
Without Allen, O'Neale averages 9.1 points and 4.9 rebounds in 25.8 minutes per game. Averaging 14 PR per game, he has recorded 11 PR in 22 of 28 (79%) games without Allen this season as well as eight of the last 10 games. He has a 76% hit rate for the season as well.
Williams played 22 minutes on Tuesday, while Oso Ighodaro played 23 minutes but grabbed just one rebound. Despite being 6-foot-11, Ighodaro is an average or worse rebounder, averaging 4.5 rebounds per game in 20 minutes in his first two seasons. If Williams is out, Ott may need to get more minutes for O'Neale as he is a solid rebounder for a wing.
Additionally, O'Neale is an experienced playoff performer, having played in the postseason with Utah and Brooklyn. If he gets 20 minutes, he may clear this line regardless, likely on the strength of two 3s or more.
Pick: Royce O'Neale Over 10.5 Points + Rebounds
Brandin Podziemski Over 24.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
Brandin Podziemski also played a key role with 17 points, seven rebounds, and two assists in 41 minutes on Wednesday. Podziemski is one player whose minutes can fluctuate under Kerr, but he has been needed without Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody. He has scored 17 points in eight of his last 10 games without Butler and Moody while averaging 19.6 in that span.
Podziemski can also affect the game when he is not scoring, typically flirting with four to five rebounds and assists. When you add that to his scoring, he has averaged 26.3 points, rebounds, and assists in 21 games without Butler and Moody. He has cleared this line in 14 of those games as well as seven of his last 10 games.
Additionally, as one of the younger players on an experienced team, Podziemski is not subject to minutes restrictions. If he plays over 35 minutes again tonight, he will have a strong chance to record 25 PRA tonight. Both he and Santos should benefit from the attention the Suns pay to slowing down Curry tonight.
Pick: Brandin Podziemski Over 24.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+450)
- Gui Santos Over 12.5 Points
- Royce O'Neale Over 10.5 Points + Rebounds
- Brandin Podziemski Over 24.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
Compounding Angle (+1900)
- Gui Santos 18+ Points
- Royce O'Neale 15 Points + Rebounds
- Brandin Podziemski Over 24.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
