After a quiet first half, Donovan Mitchell erupted for 39 points in the second half, tying the NBA Playoff record for points in a half. More importantly, he helped the Cavaliers even the series with a 112-103 victory over the Pistons.
Now, the series shifts back to Detroit, which may just favor the Pistons, given how this series has gone. Cade Cunningham will look to lead the way again, even if he does not get much help from Jalen Duren once again.
Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Wednesday, May 13.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Cavaliers vs. Pistons Game 5
The Angle: Cade Leads Pistons to Win Despite Duren's Struggles
Cade Cunningham Over 34.5 Points + Assists
For the first time in his playoff career, Cunningham was held under 20 points as he finished with 19 points on 7-for-16 from the field. Cunningham is still the playoff leader in scoring at 29.2 points per game. He has scored 23 points in 10 of 11 playoff games thus far.
Though his average is down in the playoffs, Cunningham is still third in the playoffs with 7.5 assists per game. He has recorded 10 assists or more in three of his last five games. He has found more success facilitating in this series as his teammates made more shots compared to the series against the Magic.
As a result, Cunningham has recorded 30 points and assists in 10 of 11 playoff games. The exception was Monday night when he was held to 25 PA, but I like him to bounce back tonight at home. He has recorded 35 PA at a 73% clip and three of his four 30-point games this postseason have come at home.
He is averaging 21.1 field goal attempts and 15 potential assists per game in the playoffs. That volume in this matchup should help him to get 35 PA once again.
Pick: Cade Cunningham Over 34.5 Points + Assists
The Contrarian SGP: Mitchell Over, Duren Under, Pistons Moneyline
Donovan Mitchell 25+ Points
If you had an over on Donovan Mitchell's points on Monday, you may have been a tad bit nervous when he started 0-of-6 from the field and finished the first half with four points on 1-for-8 shooting.
I was not as concerned because Mitchell is a player that can get hot quickly and go for 15+ points in a quarter. Instead, he decided to do that in the third AND fourth quarter as he scored 21 in the third quarter and 18 points in the fourth quarter.
Mitchell has the third-highest scoring at home in NBA playoff history. However, the Cavaliers now need him to carry that over to the road. However, he did so on the road when he scored 31 points in Game 2. Mitchell is averaging 33 points per game in the series.
Mitchell now has scored 30 points in six of his last seven games against the Pistons. He is averaging 33.5 points per game over that span. He cashed his full ladder on Monday night and if he gets over 30 points again, he will flirt with it again.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell 25+ Points
Jalen Duren Under 14.5 Points
The Pistons earned the No. 1 East seed in the Eastern Conference behind an elite defense and the tandem of Cunningham and Duren. Both of them were All-Stars this season, a second appearance for Cunningham and the first for Duren. However, Cunningham has raised his game in the playoffs, but Duren has not.
Duren averaged 19.5 points per game in the regular season and scored 15 points in 79% of his games. If he didn't get there, it was usually because of foul trouble. However, in the playoffs, Duren is averaging just 10.2 points per game.
He has scored 15 points just once this postseason and fortunately for the Pistons, it was in Game 7 against Orlando, but Mitchell scored more points in a half on Monday than Duren has in this entire series.
Duren's line has dropped to 11.5 points tonight, a sign of how much he has been struggling. His better games against Cleveland have been at home, so I am moving his line back a couple of baskets in case he is feeling the home cooking a bit tonight.
However, third-string center Paul Reed has outplayed him the last two games. In a must-win situation, JB Bickerstaff might have to turn to Reed again if Duren continues to struggle.
Pick: Jalen Duren Under 14.5 Points
Detroit Pistons Moneyline
The Pistons are taking advantage of home court advantage in the East as they are 5-1 at Little Caesars Arena this postseason. The home team has won every game thus far in this series. That also tracks with how the Cavaliers have fared this postseason as they are 6-0 at home and 0-5 on the road.
The Cavaliers are averaging almost 18 fewer points (100.2) per game on the road compared to home in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pistons are allowing just 99.3 points per game and have a 104 defensive rating at home in the playoffs. They are third in defensive rating in the playoffs.
Additionally, the Cavaliers attempted six more free throws than the Pistons in Game 3 and 22 more free throws in Game 4. That came after Mitchell complained about officiating in Detroit. Bickerstaff was complaining about officiating after Game 4, so maybe the free-throw difference evens out as well. That may lead to the Pistons covering as well, but this parlay is already over +400 as is.
Pick: Detroit Pistons Moneyline
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+417)
- Cade Cunningham Over 34.5 Points + Assists
- Donovan Mitchell 25+ Points
- Jalen Duren Under 14.5 Points
- Pistons Moneyline
Compounding Angle (+1125)
- Cade Cunningham Over 34.5 Points + Assists
- Donovan Mitchell 30+ Points
- Jalen Duren Under 12.5 Points
- Pistons -3.5
