The Portland Trail Blazers (1-3) and San Antonio Spurs (3-1) will meet in Game 5 of the first round of the NBA playoffs tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Spurs are 12.5-point favorites over the Blazers on the spread (Spurs -12.5), with the over/under set at 216.5 total points. San Antonio is a -600 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Portland is +440 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Trail Blazers vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for Game 5 on Tuesday, April 28.
Trail Blazers vs Spurs Prediction
- Trail Blazers vs Spurs pick: Trail Blazers +12.5 (-110)
My Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Game 5 best bet is on Portland to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Trail Blazers vs Spurs Odds for Game 5
| Trail Blazers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 216.5 -108o / -112u | +440 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 216.5 -108o / -112u | -600 |
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Trail Blazers vs Spurs NBA Playoffs Game 5 Preview
Portland Trail Blazers Betting Preview, Analysis
If you just look at the series record, you might think the Trail Blazers are lightyears behind San Antonio. But if you actually watch the games, the Blazers have very much been in this series—except for those two 10-minute stretches where they get absolutely blown out of the universe.
It turns out, those stretches do count in the grand scheme of things, but the perception of the gap between these two teams is a bit skewed right now.
Visually speaking, the Spurs' offense hasn't looked quite as crisp as you’d expect from a top-tier contender. It’s not exactly pickup basketball, but it’s not deliberate or read-based offense either. They’re mostly just attacking individual matchups.
Now, the numbers will tell you I’m crazy—San Antonio is in the 80th percentile in the playoffs, ranking as the second or third-best half-court offense. Their spot-up and pick-and-roll efficiency has been through the roof. Ironically, it’s transition where they’ve actually struggled to execute.
San Antonio Betting Preview, Analysis
One of the biggest reasons I like Portland to hang around tonight is the rotation math.
We’re hearing a lot about Donovan Clingan seeing fewer minutes while Robert Williams III plays more, and honestly, Williams has been very good.
On the Spurs' side, Dylan Harper has been a mess to deal with, but keep an eye on the Stephon Castle splits.
Castle is a young, talented guy, but the Spurs are a different animal when he’s off the floor. In this series, San Antonio is +2.5 with him on the court. When he’s on the bench? They have a +30.9 net rating. They are winning by 31 points per 100 possessions when he is not playing.
If Portland can find a way to counter the Spurs' bench, they have a real opportunity to hang.
Trail Blazers vs Spurs Pick, Betting Analysis
This is a small play for me, but the historical data in this spot is too loud to ignore. Game 5 home favorites up 3-1 are 80-20 straight up since 2003. That’s an 80% win rate. However, they are only 46-52-2 against the spread in those spots.
When you move to favorites of more than 10 points in this situation, the cover rate drops to 39% (10-16-1 ATS). Why? Because the 3-1 lead usually exacerbates the spread. It reflects the record, not necessarily the actual competitive gap. Most 3-1 series involve a game that was a coin-flip or high-variance clutch situation.
Tonight, Portland is going to throw the kitchen sink at San Antonio because their season is on the line. It’s also likely the last game for Tiago Splitter, a coach the players absolutely love. It’s a shame they aren't going to keep him around, but I expect the Blazers to fight for him in Game 5 tonight.
Pick: Trail Blazers +12.5 (-110)
Trail Blazers vs Spurs Betting Trends
