The Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves will face off in Game 1 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Wolves are 6.5-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Timberwolves -6.5), with the over/under set at 210.5 total points. Minnesota is a -275 favorite to win outright, while Golden State is +220 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks on Tuesday, May 6.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Picks, Prediction for NBA Playoffs Game 1
My Timberwolves vs. Warriors Game 1 best bet is on Minnesota to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Timberwolves -6.5 (-110)
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Odds for Tuesday, May 6
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 210.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 210.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves spread: Timberwolves -6.5
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves over/under: 210.5 total points
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves moneyline: Warriors +220, Timberwolves -275
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves best bet:Timberwolves -6.5 (-110)
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Game 1 Preview
Spread
This bet terrifies me. First off, I only make this line Timberwolves -5.4. It opened -6, and is starting to approach -7 as of this writing. The Wolves have taken all the money, and I fear the value may be gone now.
Second, take a look around! All three home favorites lost Game 1. It’s either going to be A.) of course the Timberwolves won, not all four home favorites were going to lose, or B.) of course the Wolves lost, all the home favorites lost!
Road teams coming off a Game 7 with less than three days' rest against an opponent with more than four days' rest are 5-19 SU and 8-16 ATS (33%) after the Nuggets beat this trend.
If a team was on the road for the previous Game 7, they are 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS in those circumstances. Will two teams beat that trend?
Minnesota lost the season series against Golden State, but most of it was played months ago before the Jimmy Butler trade, and both teams are different now.
The Warriors’ offense is mediocre, but somehow still had a better halfcourt rating against Houston than the Wolves did against the Lakers in Round 1. That’s another concerning sign for the Wolves.
Over/Under
No play on the total, I make this right around the number, and we need to see how the matchups fit first.
The Wolves might overwhelm Golden State's defense, or the Warriors’ 3-point shooting and motion offense might catch the Wolves’ defense off guard.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Betting Predictions for Game 1
Timberwolves -6.5
I will very hesitantly play Wolves -6.5, but -7 is a hard stopping point for me. I still like the trend and matchup for the Wolves, but the market is starting to get ahead of things.
Naz Reid Over 10.5 Points
The Warriors don’t really have a great matchup for Reid on the perimeter or inside.
If Draymond Green is playing small-ball, he’ll have Gobert a big percentage of the time, and likely takes Julius Randle for long stretches.
Reid will wind up with Quentin Post or Jimmy Butler, and both should present an advantage for Reid’s scoring.
Brandin Podziemski Over 11.5 Points
Podziemski will be able to score comfortably in this series against drop coverage from Gobert, and likely gets the smaller Mike Conley or Donte DiVincenzo matchups.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Game 1 Best Bets
- Timberwolves -6.5 (-110)
- Naz Reid Over 10.5 Points (-115)
- Brandin Podziemski Over 11.5 Points (-120)
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Betting Trends
