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Where Will DeMar DeRozan Sign? Polymarket Odds

Where Will DeMar DeRozan Sign? Polymarket Odds article feature image
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Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images. Pictured: DeMar DeRozan.

DeMar DeRozan has scored more points than all but a handful of players from his generation, yet the one thing missing from his résumé is a championship ring. At 37, with free agency thinning out this deep into August, that search just picked up a jolt from a trade that had nothing to do with him. Traders on Polymarket noticed right away.

DeMar DeRozan Free Agency: Where Things Stand

He's been available since the Sacramento Kings bought out the final year of his contract earlier this offseason, paying him roughly $10 million to part ways instead of carrying his full $25.7 million salary. That payout gives him some room to be picky, which may explain why he hasn't jumped at a minimum-salary offer.

Reports say DeRozan wants access to one of the league's mid-size exceptions rather than settle for the roughly $3.9 million veteran's minimum. Factor in his age, a limited three-point shot, and a game built around isolation scoring, and it's not hard to see why a six-time All-Star is still unsigned this late in the summer.

Denver Nuggets Become the DeMar DeRozan Frontrunner

That changed, at least on the trading floor, after Denver shipped Peyton Watson to Cleveland as part of a five-team deal this week. The Nuggets needed another scorer to cover Watson's minutes, and since they're the only team sitting in the league's second luxury-tax apron, signing a free agent at the minimum salary is close to their only option for adding talent.

Denver has pulled well ahead on price, sitting above every other outcome in the field. But the trading volume tells a slightly different story: Cleveland, the team that just landed Watson from Denver, has actually drawn more money than any other team in this market, despite carrying a much lower probability. The more obvious basketball fit stays with Denver: DeRozan next to Nikola Jokić gives him his best shot yet at a ring, while Jokić gets a scorer who doesn't need the ball funneled through him to be effective.

Could Miami, Boston, or Washington Land DeRozan?

Miami keeps coming up in DeRozan rumors, but the Heat reportedly want to hold onto their exception money rather than spend it on a 37-year-old wing, which has kept their share of the market in the single digits, close to Golden State and the Clippers.

Washington and Cleveland trail even further back.

Boston is a different story. A pair of Bleacher Report writers have separately floated the Celtics as DeRozan's best fit, arguing his midrange scoring could absorb some of the shot-creation load Jaylen Brown carries in the postseason. Grant Hughes, writer from Bleacher Report, said: "DeRozan remains a specialist in the self-created two-point jumper." It's a believable fit on paper, though Joe Mazzulla's offense leans heavily on three-point shooting, and nobody knows if DeRozan would take a smaller bench role on a true contender.

Whatever comes next, the market's message so far is straightforward: Denver has the edge, but a player still chasing his first ring, at this stage of his career, is exactly the kind of story that can flip on a single phone call.

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Pablo PlanovskyVerified Action Expert

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