College Football Betting Pace Report: 3 Overs for Week 13, Including Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt

College Football Betting Pace Report: 3 Overs for Week 13, Including Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt article feature image
Credit:

Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Hendon Hooker.

It’s the final week of the regular season in college football. It’s an incredibly busy week with 65 FBS games being played throughout the week.

There’s plenty to keep an eye on from a totals perspective heading into the final week, especially in the SEC with the “Battle Line Rivalry” between Missouri and Arkansas, the “Iron Bowl” between Alabama and Auburn, and an in-state battle between Vanderbilt and Tennessee.

If you’re new to this piece, we take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, plays per minute and more. Using those metrics, along with a look at the weather and key injuries, the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.

Before we dive in, let’s take a look at where each team sits in terms of plays per minute and plays per game after Week 12.

Now, let’s dive into the totals.

Missouri vs. Arkansas

Missouri Odds +14.5
Arkansas Odds -14.5
Moneyline +475 /  -675
Over/Under 62.5
Time Friday | 3:30 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Battle Line Rivalry commences on Friday afternoon as Missouri travels to Fayetteville to take on Arkansas. Missouri became bowl eligable last weekend, beating Florida in overtime in Columbia to get to 6-5 on the season.

However, Eli Drinkwitz’s defense is one of the worst in college football. Missouri is allowing 6.1 yards per play, ranks 109th in Success Rate Allowed, and 111th in EPA/Play allowed.

Most of the Tigers’ issues have come against the run, where Missouri is allowing 5.3 yards per carry, which is 113th in college football. The Tigers are also 119th Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 109th in rushing explosiveness allowed, and 122nd in EPA/Rush allowed.

So, facing an Arkansas offense that is running the ball 62.5% of the time and carrying the ball for 4.9 yards per carry is a terrible matchup for it.

With how bad Missouri’s defense has been this season, the Tigers have been forced to throw the ball very often.

Connor Bazelak hasn’t been very effective this season, averaging only 6.7 yards per attempt. However, throwing the ball is how teams beat Arkansas’ defense. The Razorbacks are allowing 7.9 yards per attempt, rank 59th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 76th in passing explosiveness allowed, and 61st in EPA/Pass allowed.

TOUCHDOWN MISSOURI

Connor Bazelak to Niko Hea for the 41 yard TD#Florida #Missouri

pic.twitter.com/9y7aQWjRgd

— Sideline CFB (@SidelineCFB) November 20, 2021

Both Arkansas and Missouri play at above-average tempos, with Arkansas ranking 33rd in plays per minute and Missouri ranking 56th in the same stat. So, if Arkansas goes up early in this game, it will force Missouri to push the tempo, creating a very fast-paced game.

I have 76.5 points projected for this game, so I think there’s some value on over 62.5 points.

Pick: Over 62.5

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Alabama vs. Auburn

Alabama Odds -19.5
Auburn Odds +19.5
Moneyline -1250 / +750
Over/Under 55
Time Saturday | 3:30 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Iron Bowl doesn’t have much luster this year with Auburn sitting at 6-5. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t value on the total.

Alabama’s offense, not surprisingly, has been unbelievable with Bryce Young under center, as he’s one of the favorites to win the Heisman right now.

Alabama is gaining 6.7 yards per play, ranking 14th in Offensive Success Rate, and third in EPA/Play.

Young is averaging 9.8 yards per attempt and has a 92.5 passing grade with 23 big-time throws and only seven turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.

He’ll have another fantastic matchup on Saturday against an Auburn secondary that ranks 107th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 85th in EPA/Pass allowed.

BRYCE YOUNG WITH A ROCKET 🚀#CFB

pic.twitter.com/K937zCCjCo

— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) November 20, 2021

This will be the second start of the season for Auburn’s TJ Finley, who wasn’t that effective in his first start of the season against South Carolina, averaging 5.9 yards per attempt.

The problem is the Tigers will have to rely on Finley to throw the ball on Saturday because Alabama’s front seven is first in EPA/Rush allowed and 15th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

This is only Finley’s second start of the season, but the Alabama secondary is having some major issues right now. The Crimson Tide are 48th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 73rd in explosive passing allowed, and 62nd in EPA/Pass allowed.

Auburn also plays at an above-average tempo, running 2.42 plays per minute, which is 34th in college football. So, if the Tigers get down early, it’s going to force them to play fast and throw the ball down the field against a below-average secondary.

I have 64.7 points projected for this game, so I think there’s some value on over 55.5 points.

Pick: Over 55.5

Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee

Vanderbilt Odds +31
Tennessee Odds -31
Moneyline +2500 / -8500
Over/Under 62.5
Time Saturday | 3:45 p.m. ET
TV SEC Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Josh Heupel’s fast-paced Tennessee offense looks to finish the season strong against in-state rival Vanderbilt on Saturday.

Tennessee plays the fastest tempo in the country, running 2.95 plays per minute, and its offense has been humming. The Volunteers are averaging 6.2  yards per play and rank 16th in Offensive Success Rate.

With Hendon Hooker under center, Tennessee’s ground game has been incredible, as it’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry, ranks sixth in Rushing Success Rate, and 22nd in EPA/Rush.

So, given the fact that they’re running the ball 56.8% of the time, the Volunteers should be able to run the ball all over a Vanderbilt defense that hasn’t been able to stop anything this season.

Vanderbilt is 108th in EPA/Rush allowed, 111th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, and 111th in Defensive Line Yards. So, it’s no wonder the Commodores are allowing 5.5 yards a carry.

Vanderbilt’s pass defense is just as bad as its front seven, ranking 123rd in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 101st in EPA/Pass allowed.

So, Hooker and the Tennessee passing attack, which ranks 46th in Passing Success Rate, should be able to move the ball with incredible ease at their lightning-fast tempo on Saturday.

a thing of beauty 🤩

📲 https://t.co/nc4oPnWpa3 pic.twitter.com/dE3anMHyNl

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) November 21, 2021

Offensively, Vandy has struggled to move the ball this season, considering it’s 126th in Offensive Success Rate.

However, it’s been ripping off some big plays. The Commodores are 48th in explosive plays, which is exactly how teams attack Tennessee’s defense that ranks 93rd in explosive plays allowed. So, Vanderbilt could put 20+ points on the board in garbage time.

I have 73.1 points projected for this game, so I think there’s some value on over 62.5 points

Pick: Over 62.5

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