As I do each and every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card.
My primary goal here is to simply discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.
I will write most of these up after betting them, which I log immediately on the Action App. For reference, I'll note what I'd still play each to.
Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my nine favorite Week 4 spots along with eight others that just missed the cut for various reasons. If you're looking to bet on nothing but good teams, you must have made a wrong turn at some point.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 9-7 (56.25%)
- Overall: 178-130-2 (57.8%)
Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Saturday's Week 4 slate.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Miami (OH) +3.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Wisconsin -9 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | UConn -20.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Eastern Michigan +3 |
  | 4 p.m. | Duke -3 |
  | 4:15 p.m. | Northern Illinois +21.5 |
  | 4:30 p.m. | Temple +24 |
  | 6 p.m. | Kansas -12 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Louisiana Tech -2.5 |
Miami (OH) +3.5 vs. UNLV
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
This was the first bet I placed this week, as I've been itching to fade the undefeated Rebels.
When it comes to 3-0 resumes, UNLV has one of the worst you'll see with wins over Idaho State (by seven as a 30-point favorite), a dreadful Sam Houston team and the corpse of UCLA by seven — which looks even worse after what New Mexico did to the Bruins, who actually outperformed UNLV (which could easily be 1-2 or 2-1 statistically).
Conversely, Miami (OH) enters this nonconference clash at 0-2, but both losses came against Big Ten teams on the road.
From a strength of schedule perspective, Miami ranks in the top 10 nationally, while UNLV ranks outside the top 175, including FCS teams. That's an enormous discrepancy.
I expected the rebuilt Miami offense to struggle early in the season, but it actually showed more progress sooner than I expected at Rutgers.
Don't let the 45-17 final score fool you; that game was pretty competitive. Rutgers finished with only 50 more net yards and actually lost the yards-per-play battle, 8.4-5.5.
Anthony Colandrea has played very well at quarterback for the Rebels, but again, keep in mind the level of competition. He has a great deep ball but can struggle in the intermediary range, which is where the Miami (OH) defense will force opposing signal-callers to work by design.
To wit, in 2024, Colandrea finished with 11 Big-Time Throws to two Turnover-Worthy Plays on his deep balls, but that ratio plummeted to 1:10 in the short to intermediary range.
Expect the RedHawks to force a few takeaways in this one.
Additionally, this is a weird spot for the Rebels, who have to travel west to Oxford for a noon local kick (9 a.m. body clock) coming off a bye with another bye on deck prior to the start of league play. I could see a flat effort.
On the other side, Miami (OH) — which is also off a bye — should come in focused for its home opener in search of its first win of the season.
Lastly, UNLV will likely shoot itself in the foot too often, as the Rebels come into this game averaging 111 penalty yards per game (135th nationally). They will also likely lose the field-position battle against an elite special teams unit.
Notable Nugget
Miami head coach Chuck Martin is 42-29-1 ATS (59.2%) as an underdog, including 24-15-1 (61.5%) as a single-digit pup with an average cover margin north of four points.
Projection: Miami (OH) +0.3
Pick: Miami (OH) +3 or Better
Wisconsin -9 vs. Maryland
12 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
I'm assuming Billy Edwards returns at quarterback on Saturday for the narrative revenge game against his former team. That's certainly not a guarantee, but I'm hearing positive progress reports.
I might buy out of some of my Wisconsin positions if Edwards can't go on Saturday. That said, his familiarity with Maryland's defense can help with prep regardless of whether he plays.
The offensive line is also in much better shape after getting left tackle Davis Heinzen out of the lineup in addition to seeing the return of senior center Jake Renfro last week.
I'm not only looking to buy the dip on Wisconsin after it got waxed (as expected) with a backup quarterback in Tuscaloosa, but I'm also itching to fade a Maryland team that hasn't played a soul to date.
The Terps' strength of schedule ranks outside of the top 200 nationally, with three home games against NIU, FAU and Towson, with the two contests against FBS opponents being closer than the final score indicates.
A +6 turnover margin against the Owls certainly helped.
This will also mark the first road start for true freshman quarterback Malik Washington.
He's played well so far against subpar competition, but we've seen countless inexperienced quarterbacks struggle in this spot already this season.
This will serve as a significantly stiffer test and environment, especially considering he won't have any help from a nonexistent rushing attack that ranks 129th nationally in EPA per Rush (just 3.5 yards per carry) despite facing a hilariously easy schedule of opponents.
I expect plenty of third-and-longs against one of the most improved pass rushes in the country.
That spells trouble for an offense that has converted less than a third of its third-down attempts (111th nationally) against a bunch of lower-level competition, especially considering Washington's numbers have dropped precipitously under pressure (6-for-18 passing).
The offensive line will also still be a major deficiency during league play.
Notable Nugget
Mike Locksley has consistently fallen flat as a road underdog, with an ATS record of just 12-22 (35.3%), failing to cover by an average of five points per game.
Among all active FBS coaches, only Rich Rodriguez and Clay Helton have been less profitable in that spot.
Projection: Wisconsin -12
Pick: Wisconsin -10 or Better
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UConn -20.5 vs. Ball State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
I had to get my weekly CBS Sports Network game in here.
The Huskies have been snake-bitten so far this season, with back-to-back road losses in overtime (against Syracuse and Delaware) after leading in the final minute of regulation in both. They could easily be sitting at 3-0.
Now, they get to come home and take out their frustrations on a bad Ball State ball club that will be playing its third road game in four weeks, with the other two coming against Auburn and Purdue.
The Cardinals, who picked up their first win of the season last week by five at home over FCS New Hampshire, are probably dying to get to their bye week before hosting Ohio to start MAC play.
Additionally, this is just a great matchup on both sides of the ball for UConn.
The Huskies feature an electric passing attack led by quarterback Joe Fagnano and star wide receiver Skyler Bell. Those two spearhead an aerial assault that ranks in the top 10 nationally in EPA per Pass and Pass Success Rate.
That's precisely how you want to attack the Ball State defense, which has some solid pass rushers, but is simply void of talent on the back end at both linebacker and safety.
That group ranks in the bottom 15 nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, while allowing opposing quarterbacks to combine for 71-for-107 passing (66.4%) for 870 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions — and that includes a home game against New Hampshire.
The Cardinals attempt to compensate for their lack of secondary talent by preventing explosive plays, but Fagnano will happily pick them apart underneath.
I don't see how Ball State gets any stops outside of maybe a few random sacks, but the UConn pass protection has been outstanding to start the year, even after losing two stud tackles.
So, the question becomes, can Ball State's offense score enough points to keep up or at least stay within this number? I highly doubt it.
The Cardinals have a miserable run-first offense led by Kiael Kelly, who converted back to quarterback after moving to wide receiver and cornerback last season. They can't throw the ball, boasting passing outputs of 87, 71 and 105 yards in their first three games.
That's not ideal against a Huskies defense that has some weakness at the cornerback position, which Delaware exploited last week in Newark.
UConn defensive coordinator Matt Brock is extremely underrated in terms of devising unique game plans tailored to each opponent on a weekly basis. I fully expect him to have his guys ready to load the box and take away the Ball State rushing attack, leaving them essentially helpless.
My one concern (besides potential UConn fatigue following two heartbreaking overtime losses) would be Ball State eating up clock to limit possessions, which makes covering three touchdowns a bit more of an arduous task.
Still, this is too good a spot and matchup to pass up.
Plus, UConn does have a competent backup quarterback if this one gets out of hand, which could help limit the chances of a potential backdoor.
Projection: UConn -22.9
Pick: UConn -21 or Better
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Eastern Michigan +3 vs. Louisiana
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Back to the well with Chris Creighton as an underdog.
Eastern Michigan should have covered every number against Kentucky last week if not for a clear missed offsides, a bizarre late fake punt, poor fourth down variance and a Kentucky field goal that banked in from 50-plus in the second half.
While the Eagles ultimately lost by 25, they amassed 461 total yards of offense on the road against an SEC defense that had held Ole Miss to six fewer the week prior on the same field in Lexington.
Eastern Michigan's offense actually has some real juice with quarterback Noah Kim.
The same can't be said for its defense, which I expect to struggle immensely this season. The Eagles rank near the bottom of FBS in almost every possible category, but I'm not sure Louisiana can take full advantage.
The Ragin' Cajuns lost their original starting quarterback, Walker Howard, to an injury.
That opened the door for Daniel Beale, who struggled as a true freshman in 2024 despite limited action. He finished last season 13-for-30 passing for 126 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
This year hasn't gone much better.
Beale relieved Howard in the opener against Rice and went 0-for-6 passing in a home loss to Rice in which ULL scored only 12 points.
In the following week against McNeese State, Beale threw for only 86 yards on 22 attempts against an FCS school that gave up 42 to Weber State last week. While Louisiana won that game 34-10, that final is a bit misleading, as it was 20-10 late in the fourth quarter before two short field touchdowns, including a fumble return.
So, did the offense make any progress last week against Missouri? Absolutely not.
Louisiana decided to use two quarterbacks in Columbia with Beale and sophomore Lunch Winfield, who is more of a dual-threat. That pair combined to complete 2-of-14 passes for four yards. That's not a typo.
Louisiana somehow scored 10 points thanks to a tipped pick and one long run. If you remove that run, it had 37 total yards on the other 36 plays. In the second half alone, it ran nine plays for -2 yards.
The offense is completely broken.
Give me the more desperate home team searching for its first win on its home field, where it was last embarrassed by Long Island. I like what I saw last week from the offense again, and the defense showed some real fight following a few schematic and lineup changes.
Louisiana will have success on the ground with Bill Davis and company.
Still, Eastern Michigan has the more reliable offense and better quarterback in addition to the superior coach, who should find a way to pull out a close one by winning in the margins in typical EMU fashion with solid special teams and mistake-free football.
Notable Nugget
Louisiana is 4-12 straight up in one-score games under head coach Michael Desormeaux.
Projection: Eastern Michigan +0.2
Pick: Eastern Michigan +3 (-120) or Better
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Duke -3 vs. NC State
4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
It's time to buy the dip on Duke following two losses against Illinois and Tulane. If the Blue Devils want to even sniff some of their high preseason expectations, they absolutely need this game.
Well, I believe they'll at least get back on track against an NC State team that has raced out to a 3-0 start but has looked shaky at times in all three close victories against East Carolina, Wake Forest and Virginia.
I've liked some of the things I've seen from the Wolfpack offense. Still, the defense has taken a major step back after the talent drain in the offseason, in addition to the loss of highly respected defensive coordinator Tony Gibson, who left to take the Marshall head coach position.
It's also worth noting the Wolfpack will have to make do without stud defensive end Sabastian Harsh in the first half due to a targeting suspension. That's a big loss.
Duke has had a more challenging schedule and has been the unluckier team in terms of turnovers, fourth-down variance and other areas. The Blue Devils finished with a -5 turnover margin against Illinois and even had three failed field-goal attempts (one blocked and one failed snap) in a seven-point loss at Tulane.
The Blue Devils don't have the same coverage chops as last year, as they haven't found adequate replacements for cornerback Josh Pickett (now with the Broncos) and future NFL safety Terry Moore (currently injured).
Still, they should at least slow down running back Hollywood Smothers, the engine of NC State's offense.
I'm buying low on a desperate Duke effort that may have some overdue regression headed its way.
Notable Nugget
NC State hasn't won in Durham since 2008.
Projection: Duke -4.1
Pick: Duke -3 or Better
Northern Illinois +21.5 at Mississippi State
4:15 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
Under head coach Thomas Hammock, if you just bet NIU as an underdog and faded as a favorite, you'd have a lot more money in your pocket.
He looks to grind games down to a crawl with long, clock-bleeding drives, especially in the role of a large underdog. As a result, it's a very tall task to build a significant margin against the Huskies.
This is also an ideal situational spot for NIU, which will have 15 days off before this game kicks off, following its last appearance in College Park a couple of Fridays ago, where it achieved another successful cover as a large pup.
That break should be helpful for a team that had so much turnover in the offseason from a roster and coordinator perspective.
Additionally, Mississippi State might not be entirely focused on this potentially sleepy spot against a MAC opponent. At 3-0 on the season, the Bulldogs might be peaking ahead to their next two games against Tennessee and Texas A&M.
What exactly does that mean? Well, they could come out a bit flat.
They also might have spent this week preparing more for those opponents. They also might not want to show as much on tape and/or pull their starters sooner than usual with a big lead, especially since they've already suffered a few key season-ending injuries on both sides of the ball.
The NIU offense has plenty of holes, but the electric running back duo of Telly Johnson and Chavon Wright will do just enough on the ground to keep the chains moving to help bleed the clock, while the defense looks pretty feisty once again.
Notable Nugget
As I alluded to above, no coach has more drastic ATS splits in the underdog vs. favorite role than Hammock.
Against FBS teams, Hammock has gone just 5-21-1 (19.2%) ATS as a favorite compared to 24-11-1 (68.6%) as an underdog. That includes a 7-2 ATS mark (77.8%) when catching more than two touchdowns with an average cover margin of more than eight points.
The Huskies even pulled off a few outright upsets in those games against Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, in addition to a few other near scares.
Projection: Northern Illinois +19.4
Pick: Northern Illinois +21 or Better
Temple +24 at Georgia Tech
4:30 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
Yup, I'm going back to the well with the Owls after last week's disaster.
Georgia Tech has some service academy vibes under head coach Brent Key and quarterback Haynes King. The Yellow Jackets are a run-heavy, slow-paced team that has consistently thrived in the underdog role but hasn't enjoyed as much success as a favorite with its grinding style.
This is also just a difficult spot for the Ramblin' Wreck, who are fresh off a last-second upset win over Clemson via a 60-yard field goal.
Can they avoid the dreaded letdown against Temple after hearing their praises get sung all week? Possibly, but they likely won't want to run King much, which is such an enormous part of their offense.
While I don't think they're in danger of getting upset and repeating what happened in 2023 at home against Bowling Green and Boston College, I do believe they could be a bit flat and look to get out of dodge with a 17-to-20 point win without outstanding offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner needing to show much or exposing King to too many hits.
It's worth noting that Tech does have an excellent backup quarterback.
Still, I just couldn't pass up taking the Owls in the same ballpark as last week, especially considering Temple has almost no home-field advantage and Tech doesn't have a material one, especially for a game like this.
This will also be a much easier test for the Owls from an overall talent standpoint, especially in terms of tempo and talent.
This is also not an elite Georgia Tech defense. Last week, Temple simply couldn't get into its offense or find anything easy against the elite Oklahoma front.
However, quarterback Evan Simon should have more time in the pocket, and the backs should have more success on the ground in this matchup.
This could mark the top of the market on Georgia Tech, so I'm happy to sell here even if it requires backing the Owls in back-to-back weeks.
Tech's two FBS wins — Clemson and Colorado — might ultimately speak more about its opponents than many believe at this moment.
Plus, it's not like they completely dominated the Tigers, who finished with more yards and averaged over one yard more per play (lost turnover battle 2-0).
Notable Nugget
Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key has a superb 15-6 ATS (71.4%) record as an underdog, covering by nearly 10 points per game on average.
However, he's just 4-6-1 ATS as a favorite against FBS competition, failing to cover by nearly eight points per game. That includes a 2-5-1 ATS mark in home games with a handful of outright losses.
Projection: Temple +22.8
Pick: Temple +24 or Better
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Kansas -12 vs. West Virginia
6 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
This is probably the most obvious situational spot on the board and one I had circled before the season.
I'm sure Kansas has had this circled all offseason as well, after it started Big 12 play in 2024 with a loss in Morgantown in a game it led by 11 with four minutes to go in regulation before a monumental collapse.
Following a thrilling comeback victory over rival Pitt in overtime, West Virginia now must travel to Lawrence to take on a Kansas team fresh off a bye.
Not only should the Jayhawks come in fresher (the high-tempo 'Eers ran a ton of plays last week to boot) with additional time to prep for this matchup with an elite head coach in Lance Leipold, but they will also boast a much better injury situation.
While West Virginia has lost three key offensive contributors in recent weeks, Kansas should arrive at the stadium almost entirely healthy — even at linebacker, which bodes well in this particular matchup against the run-first Mountaineers.
The West Virginia offense is struggling due to a poor offensive line and some key injuries.
I don't see the Mountaineers having much success on the ground against a much more athletic Jayhawk front that ranks in the top-20 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and EPA per Rush allowed. Until a late broken run, they really held an extremely dynamic Missouri rushing attack in check.
The way to attack the Jayhawks' defense is through the air after the departure of two All-American cornerbacks. Still, I don't think West Virginia has the personnel to consistently exploit those deficiencies on the back end.
And if it's failing quickly with its tempo, it may wear down late.
In regard to Kansas, that extra prep time should really help quarterback Jalon Daniels and his new receivers build more chemistry and work on timing after he missed the spring with an injury.
And looking under the hood, the underlying, more predictive early-down metrics are pretty encouraging for the Jayhawks on both sides of the ball. The late-down success should begin to follow suit.
The West Virginia defense, which seems to have hit on several lower-level transfers, has been a very pleasant surprise under new defensive coordinator Zac Alley. However, the dam should eventually break here, especially with the threat of Daniels' legs.
Keep in mind that West Virginia lost, 17-10, on the road at Ohio in a game where it recorded three interceptions. The Bobcats finished with nearly 200 more net yards.
The West Virginia offense is just not where it needs to be at the moment, with Rich Rod even benching starting quarterback Nicco Marchiol last week and bringing in two others before going back to Nicco in the end to lead the crazy comeback in the final minutes in a game where Pitt helped them out with 14 penalties.
Lastly, expect Kansas to win the field-position battle throughout the night with a much better overall special teams unit at the moment.
Notable Nugget
Rich Rodriguez is the least profitable road underdog among all active head coaches, with a 15-27 ATS record (35.7%).
Projection: Kansas -13.7
Pick: Kansas -13 or Better
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Louisiana Tech -2.5 vs. Southern Miss
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
I'm not buying all of the Southern Miss love.
Yes, the Golden Eagles took care of business last week against Appalachian State, but they also benefited from three interceptions on goal-to-go situations in the first half, including a fluky one they returned 99 yards for a touchdown.
That led to the Mountaineers benching their quarterback for the second half, which didn't help matters. It was undoubtedly a misleading result, as was the final score against FCS Jackson State in a relatively even game statistically.
The Golden Eagles can't run the ball and struggle to stop opposing ground games. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech has the much stouter defense (only allowing 12.3 points per game) that even gave LSU fits at times in Baton Rouge.
It has been more of a struggle on the offensive side for the Bulldogs' modified Air Raid attack, but they seemed to find something last game after finally making a quarterback change.
JUCO transfer Trey Kukuk originally came out of nowhere to win the starting job. My first thoughts were that they must have struck gold, but it was clear from the first drive that he wasn't the best candidate to run this type of offense. His primary contributions came with his legs, as he's a very dynamic athlete.
However, the other two quarterbacks on the roster (who both played last year) were clearly much more equipped to run the offense.
Consequently, head coach Sonny Cumbie decided to start Blake Baker under center last week, which led to a 49-point outburst against New Mexico State. They still used Kukuk as a runner in certain packages, which I believe is the best approach. It's worth noting Kukuk is questionable with an injury, as is starting cornerback Cedrick Woods, which I am monitoring.
The Bulldogs ended up rushing for 354 yards on a whopping 63 carries while holding the Aggies to just 28 yards on 16 attempts.
I'll take the better defense at home with the more reliable rush offense and defense.
I also think the Bulldogs might be a bit undervalued after the recent quarterback shakeup, while the Golden Eagles may be on the other end of the spectrum after a couple of misleading final scores.
Lastly, it wouldn't shock me if we didn't get an entirely focused effort from Southern Miss for this nonconference clash following its first conference victory in nearly two years.
Projection: Louisiana Tech -3.7
Pick: Louisiana Tech -3 or Better
Other Potential Week 4 Targets
Purdue vs. Notre Dame
Purdue (+25.5) looks intriguing against Notre Dame, which is in a spot where we constantly see teams come out flat after marquee-ranked losses.
Top-25 teams on a losing streak of two-plus games are 29-66-1 ATS (31%) in the next game since 2005.
The Irish might also have a few key injuries. Boilers or nothing here.
UAB vs. Tennessee
The same can be said for Tennessee against UAB (+38.5).
Top-15 teams favored by more than 30 following a loss in a top-15 matchup are just 9-22 ATS (29%) since 2005, failing to cover by nearly a touchdown per game. We saw Clemson and Texas come out flat in this same scenario earlier this year.
With that said, Tennessee has generally put it on teams the week after losing to Georgia, and I'm not sure how UAB gets any stops. I might need a few more points to get involved.
James Madison vs. Liberty
Time to buy low on Liberty (+9.5)?
The double-digits got taken out before I could get involved, but this might be the very bottom of the market on the Flames, who have looked awful from the jump.
JMU does come off a bye week, so I'm curious to see if they alter their QB rotation plans at all.
Arkansas State vs. Kennesaw State
Kennesaw State (+5.5) catches Arkansas State — which doesn't profile as a great favorite — in a pretty juicy spot.
The Red Wolves are fresh off an in-state rivalry game with Arkansas and a hard-fought loss vs. Iowa State. Will the focus and energy be there for a nonconference affair at the smallest stadium in FBS? I have my doubts.
The Kennesaw offense matching up with the Arkansas State defense is a hilarious matchup. The Owls look like a good ML or Round Robin piece.
Georgia State vs. Vanderbilt
Georgia State (+26.5) has some quarterback uncertainty. Believe it or not, TJ Finley is likely now QB1 at his sixth school but is a bit banged up.
The Panthers are in a good spot against a Vandy team coming off an upset win of South Carolina, with a brutal SEC schedule ahead.
The Commodores also don't profile as a great favorite due to their style.
However, Georgia State did shockingly upset them last season, so maybe there will be extra focus. I probably need 28 to get involved as a result.
BYU vs. East Carolina
ECU (+6.5) catches a BYU team that hasn't really played anybody yet, coming across the country for a nonconference clash in a tough place to play, especially for a true freshman quarterback.
The Pirates have looked better than I had expected so far and will face a BYU defense that might have some looming turnover regression after last season's stellar campaign.
ECU is definitely live here.
Michigan State vs. USC
USC (-18.5) catches a potentially shorthanded Michigan State team that will head out West for an 11 p.m. local kick.
That's not ideal, especially against this explosive Trojan passing attack, given some of the issues Sparty has had in coverage.
My only concern is USC might just take its foot off the gas with road games against Illinois, Michigan, Notre Dame and Nebraska looming on deck.
USC 1H might be worth a look depending on the final Michigan State injury report.
SMU vs. TCU
TCU (-7) comes off a bye week for the battle for the Iron Skillet against an SMU team that embarrassed it, 66-42, last season. I'm sure the Horned Frogs have had this game circled.
The Mustangs have just looked sloppy all season and are dealing with a number of bumps and bruises.
Quarterback Josh Hoover should carve up an SMU back end that has taken a major step back this season.
