Our Group of 5 experts from the Big Bets on Campus podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, return for another moneyline underdog parlay.
When paired together, these two G5 'dogs pay out at over 6-1.
Let's take a look at our college football predictions and NCAAF picks in our Group of 5 moneyline underdog parlay for Week 4.
East Carolina +200 vs. BYU
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -245 |
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
By Joshua Nunn
I was researching East Carolina in the preseason, and I wanted to fall in love with the Pirates as a surprise team in the American.
While I couldn’t get there in the preseason, they’ve fixed some of the issues I was concerned about.
For starters, quarterback Katin Houser has been a pleasant surprise, completing 72% of his passes with five touchdowns to one interception. He’s protecting the football while spreading the ball around, as five players already have eight or more catches on the season.
The Pirates lost their bell-cow running back from last season, shifted to a pass-heavy approach, and it’s working. They’re executing in the red zone and converting on third down. They’re accumulating scoring drives and capitalizing on them.
Meanwhile, the defense has been lights out against the run, allowing just two yards per carry while ranking 10th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed. As a result, opponents are converting just 32% of their third-down opportunities.
You can see in the film from the second quarter of the North Carolina State game that the Pirates are flying to the football, tackling well, and creating turnovers.
BYU’s numbers are phenomenal, but the Cougars’ stats are skewed by their lower-level strength of schedule, as they amassed huge box score differentials against Portland State and Stanford.
I don’t think we know enough about BYU yet to make the Cougars seven-point favorites in a cross-country road game.
Schematically, the Cougars want to run the football, and East Carolina will stack the box. Bear Bachmeier will have to throw the ball here, and he has been holding on to the ball for way too long, which could lead to plenty of negative plays against the Pirates’ front.
This is a rare opportunity for East Carolina, hosting a Power Conference program in its building. I think the Pirates come out ready, torch BYU’s untested secondary, and create Havoc on defense.
Southern Miss +135 vs. Louisiana Tech
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 51 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Louisiana Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 51 -110o / -110u | -160 |
We here at the Group of 5 Deep Dive love Southern Miss.
We love the coaching upgrades, not just with Charles Huff as head coach, but also with offensive coordinator Blake Anderson working with quarterback Braylon Braxton.
The defense could be excellent in the secondary if everything gels.
Through three games, Southern Miss is 2-1, winning back-to-back games (Jackson State, App State) after losing to Mississippi State in the season opener by 17, a loss that looks much better after a few weeks.
The Golden Eagles’ defense looks significantly improved, especially following their three-interception performance last week.
Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech looks like a clear overachiever through three weeks.
Although they shut out Southeastern Louisiana, hung around with LSU for three quarters in a respectable 23-7 loss, and blew out New Mexico State, I still don’t see the Bulldogs playing well for the rest of the season.
The passing game is a mess. I don’t like either quarterback, as Trey Kukuk is averaging -0.33 EPA per Dropback while Blake Baker is completing less than half of his passes (although he’s more of a risk taker).
Southern Miss defensive coordinator Jason Semore is going to set a few traps for either of these quarterbacks. Plus, he knows how to handle dual-threat quarterbacks, which is important considering Louisiana Tech’s two quarterbacks can do damage with their legs.
I expect Semore’s defense to bottle up Louisiana Tech’s designed quarterback runs while bringing complex pressure packages, forcing either of these quarterbacks to process quickly and beat the Golden Eagles over the top.
I don’t believe either quarterback can do that, and I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup.
