Oregon vs Washington State Odds, Prediction & Picks | How to Bet Pac-12 Battle
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Quarterback Bo Nix of the Oregon Ducks.
Oregon vs Washington State Odds
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -115 | 60.5 -115o / -105u | -1200 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -105 | 60.5 -115o / -105u | +750 |
With both teams coming off of a loss, the Washington State Cougars will travel to Autzen Stadium to take on the Oregon Ducks this weekend.
Oregon just played in an instant classic but came up just short against Washington. Meanwhile, Washington State had one of the more baffling losses of Week 7, falling to Arizona by 38 points.
These two teams have very efficient offenses, and I think we'll see both units show up on Saturday, leading me to my favorite bet in this game.
Read on for Oregon vs. Washington State odds, picks and predictions in this Pac-12 betting guide for Saturday, October 21.
Oregon almost picked up a huge victory on the road against Washington last week but came up just short in the end.
The path is still there for the Ducks to get to the Pac-12 Championship and potentially even the College Football Playoff if things break right. However, that starts with winning every game from here on out.
The Oregon offense went into Washington last week as one of the top units in college football and once again did not disappoint, putting up a 96th-percentile Success Rate and 91st-percentile EPA per Play.
On the season, Oregon ranks second in Success Rate and 4th in Points per Opportunity.
The Ducks are also second-best in the country at preventing Havoc offensively, so this Washington State defense won’t be able to give Bo Nix too much trouble in terms of pressure.
Oregon’s rushing offense is the primary mismatch in this game. As mentioned, Washington State has not found a way to stop the run this year. Well, Oregon is third in Rushing Success Rate, first in Rushing PPA and seventh in explosiveness on the ground.
The Ducks also rank fifth in Passing Success Rate and 25th in Passing PPA, so Oregon should have a good chance to put plenty of points on the board in this matchup.
This unit has been relatively strong on the defensive end as well. Washington was an exception last week with its stellar offense led by the Heisman Trophy favorite in Michael Penix Jr., but Oregon’s defense still ranks 34th in Success Rate and 55th in Finishing Drives.
This team will also match up well against Washington State’s pass-heavy offense, entering this matchup ranked 27th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, ninth in Passing EPA Allowed and 22nd in passing explosiveness allowed.
Washington State had been rolling to start the year, but after starting off 4-0, it has now dropped two games in a row.
The UCLA loss was excusable because the Bruins appear to have a great defense, but the Arizona loss last weekend was much more baffling and has me reconsidering what this team even is.
Arizona didn’t just beat Washington State. The Wildcats absolutely railroaded the Cougars.
Playing at home, the Cougars put up a Success Rate in just the 22nd percentile and -0.73 EPA per rush. On the other side, Arizona had an 84th-percentile Success Rate as it cruised to a 44-6 victory.
This season, the Cougars rank 31st in Offensive Success Rate and 47th in Finishing Drives. Passing at the 11th-highest rate in college football, they have put up the 20th-best Success Rate and 35th-best PPA.
While the pass game is efficient down to down, it's not overly explosive. The Cougars rank just 83rd in pass explosiveness.
On the defensive side of the ball, Washington State ranks 64th in Success Rate but 99th in Finishing Drives. It's struggled to create Havoc on this side of the ball this year, ranking 85th in that area.
The passing defense for Wazzu has been stronger than the rushing defense. The Cougars rank 44th in Defensive Passing Success Rate and 87th against the run.
They also struggle against explosive plays in both facets, ranking 100th in explosiveness allowed overall.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington State and Oregon match up statistically:
Washington State Offense vs Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 52 | 45 | |
| Line Yards | 127 | 64 | |
| Pass Success | 20 | 9 | |
| Havoc | 76 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 47 | 54 | |
| Quality Drives | 81 | 15 |
Oregon Offense vs Washington State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 3 | 86 | |
| Line Yards | 1 | 75 | |
| Pass Success | 5 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 58 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 99 | |
| Quality Drives | 1 | 87 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 97 | 23 |
| PFF Coverage | 37 | 31 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 4 | 56 |
| Middle 8 | 19 | 2 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.9 (29) | 26.2 (55) |
| Rush Rate | 43.9% (122) | 46.9% (98) |
Oregon vs Washington State
Betting Prediction & Picks
I believe the outcome of this game will all come down to how Washington State’s offense can bounce back from last week’s miserable performance. If the Cougars struggle once again, the Ducks will walk all over them.
Oregon’s offense should pose a mismatch for this Washington State defense. I expect the Ducks to put plenty of points on the board this week, just as they've done all season.
While last week’s game against Arizona was highly concerning, I think Washington State will at least be able to post a modest offensive output in this game.
The spread is a touch too high for me to want to lay the points with Oregon, so I'm instead going to go with the over at 59.5 points.
These two teams typically play in higher-scoring matchups. The Ducks will get theirs on offense, but I think Washington State will be able to score enough to get this total over.
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