In 2007, a Barcelona photographer set up his camera in an away locker room at Camp Nou. A 20-year-old winger named Lionel Messi was handed someone else's baby for a charity photoshoot, and by the photographer's own account, he had no idea what to do with the kid. The baby, five months old at the time, was Lamine Yamal.
19 years later, the two finally shared a field, and it wasn't in a friendly. Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in extra time to win the 2026 World Cup, with Yamal lifting the trophy Messi couldn't get his hands on.
But the World Cup only settled one argument. According to Polymarket's Ballon d'Or prediction market, the man out front for soccer's biggest individual prize right now isn't Messi, and it isn't Yamal either. It's Harry Kane.
Ballon d'Or Winner on Polymarket
Kane's Case Keeps Getting Stronger
Kane just put together maybe the best season of his career, and it didn't stop when the World Cup ended.
What's building his case:
- Scored 61 goals in 51 games across all competitions for Bayern Munich, helping the club win back-to-back Bundesliga titles plus the DFB-Pokal.
- Finished the World Cup with 6 goals, level with reigning Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembélé.
- Helped England reach the semifinals, then beat France 6-4 in the third-place match: England's best World Cup finish since they won the whole thing in 1966.
- Would become the first English winner since Michael Owen in 2001, despite never finishing higher than 10th in the actual voting before this year.
Yamal Already Has The Trophy He Wanted
Yamal's path here looks different from everyone else's: he's the only player in this race who actually won the World Cup.
- Lifted the World Cup and the La Liga title with Barcelona in the same year, still just 19.
- Carried a preseason injury into the tournament and needed time to find his rhythm.
- Scored at the World Cup and set up other big moments for Spain along the way.
- Finished as runner-up for Best Young Player, an award that went to his own teammate, Pau Cubarsí.
Mbappé and Rodri Are Still in the Mix
Mbappé actually won the World Cup's real Golden Boot, with 10 goals: the most anyone has scored at a single tournament since 1970. His Ballon d'Or price still slipped after France lost to Spain in the semifinals.
Rodri had the opposite tournament: modest numbers on the scoresheet, but he walked away with the Golden Ball as the World Cup's best player, largely for how he ran the show for the champions.
Messi's Price Cratered
Messi didn't get the ending he wanted. He went scoreless in the final, Argentina lost with ten men on the field, and his bid for a third World Cup Golden Ball ended in the Silver Ball instead, behind Rodri.
Even so, he leaves the tournament with 8 goals and 4 assists, a second straight World Cup final at 39.
What he doesn't have anymore is the storyline. Voters tend to reward players from the winning side, and this time that side wasn't his.
Their Story Is Not Over Yet
Whatever the ceremony decides on October 26, Joan Monfort, the photographer who caught that first meeting back in 2007, already sees the poetry in it. "I think we are closing the cycle of their story," he said before the final. "I think for Messi it's perfect if he can finish his career winning the World Cup for the second time. I think he deserves it. It is a happy ending."
The World Cup wrote its own ending to that story. The Ballon d'Or hasn't written its ending yet.
