In 2007, a Barcelona photographer set up his camera in an away locker room at Camp Nou. A 20-year-old winger named Lionel Messi was handed someone else's baby for a charity photoshoot, and by the photographer's own account, he had no idea what to do with the kid. The baby, five months old at the time, was Lamine Yamal.
Almost two decades later, those two are about to share the field for the first time, not in a friendly, but in a World Cup final.
And according to Polymarket's Ballon d'Or 2026 prediction market, the man who once looked lost holding that baby is still the one to beat for football's biggest individual prize.
With more than $8 million already traded on the outcome, Messi sits clearly ahead of the field, with Yamal a distant but real second. Bayern Munich's Harry Kane and France's Ousmane Dembélé trail well behind, priced more as outside possibilities than real threats.
Messi's Case Keeps Getting Stronger
Argentina's captain has spent this World Cup doing what he's done for two decades: making it look inevitable. He's the tournament's top scorer, sits one assist off the lead, and put in a semifinal display against England. All that at 39.
What's building his case:
- Leads the tournament in goals, along with Kylian Mbappé, but with four assists to go with them.
- His semifinal masterclass against England, featuring a pair of assists.
- Chasing a third World Cup Golden Ball and a ninth Ballon d'Or, both totals nobody else is close to.
- Would win the award while based outside Europe for a second time, after doing it once already with Inter Miami in 2023.
At 39, he's also playing some of his most relaxed football in years. After the England win, he said he's simply trying to enjoy the ride rather than chase one final trophy out of desperation.
Yamal Isn't Out of It
Yamal's route to a first Ballon d'Or is narrower, but it's not closed.
He's already won a European Championship and three league titles before turning 20, and a strong final could shift things fast.
- Has racked up 56 career goals so far.
- Carried an injury into the tournament and needed time to find his rhythm.
- Has scored 24 goals in 2025–2026 across all competitions for FC Barcelona, including one at the World Cup.
Kane and Dembélé Aren't Impossible, Just Unlikely
England and France are already out, which hurts Kane and Dembélé.
Voters have historically favored players who go deep in the tournament, and neither gets that chance now. Kane's club form at Bayern Munich keeps him in the mix on paper, and Dembélé had a strong season too, but both need the Messi-Yamal storyline to fade, and that's a long shot.
The Ballon d'Or Just Reminded Everyone Where He Plays Doesn't Matter
Days before the final, the organization behind the Ballon d'Or published a short piece addressing a question fans kept raising: does it matter that Messi now plays in Major League Soccer, not Europe?
The answer was no.
There's been no geographic restriction since 2007, and Messi remains the only player in the award's modern era to win it while based outside Europe. The timing wasn't lost on anyone, since the piece landed right alongside his semifinal masterclass.
Their Story Is Not Over Yet
Whatever happens Sunday, Joan Monfort, the photographer who caught that first meeting, already sees the poetry in it: "I think we are closing the cycle of their story," he said this week. "I think for Messi it's perfect if he can finish his career winning the World Cup for the second time. I think he deserves it. It is a happy ending."
Messi may be closing his own chapter. Yamal is just getting started on his.
