The 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage is officially in the books, and while the expanded field brought more countries and more matches than ever before, many of the tournament's biggest betting trends remained surprisingly consistent.
Favorites largely avoided disaster, draws continued to reward bettors, and goals exploded late in the group stage as teams pushed for qualification. The result was one of the more profitable and entertaining opening rounds in recent World Cup history.
Let's break down the numbers from all 72 group-stage matches.
Favorites Mostly Took Care of Business
Favorites finished the group stage with a 46-20-6 record on the three-way moneyline, winning nearly two-thirds of all matches.
The biggest favorites performed even better.
The 38 largest favorites of the group stage went 30-8-0, with none suffering an outright defeat. Those teams outscored opponents by an average of 2.16 goals per game.
The worst result among those heavy favorites came from Germany, which closed at -177 against Ecuador and settled for one of the tournament's biggest disappointments.
The opening two match days featured 40 teams closing as odds-on favorites on the three-way line. Those clubs went 26-13-1, with Turkey's loss to Australia standing as the only outright defeat.
By Match Day 3, the market became even more efficient.
The 19 odds-on favorites in the final round of group-stage matches went 14-2-3, showing that the better teams generally found ways to secure results once advancement scenarios became clear.
Draws Continue to Pay
The opening round of matches was defined by draws, and that trend persisted throughout the group stage.
We saw 20 draws in 72 matches, good for a draw rate of 27.8%.
A bettor risking $100 on every draw during group play would have finished ahead by roughly 23 units, making it one of the most profitable blind betting strategies of the tournament.
The early rounds did much of the heavy lifting.
The tournament opened with an unusually high number of stalemates, and while the pace slowed somewhat in the later stages, the draw remained one of the best-performing markets throughout the first phase.
Match Day 3 Delivered the Goals
The totals market ended up favoring over bettors.
Overs finished the group stage 38-32-2, beating closing totals by an average of 0.8 goals per game.
The real difference came in Match Day 3.
With qualification scenarios, goal differential and desperation all coming into play, overs exploded to a 16-8 record during the final set of group-stage matches.
By comparison, overs were only 22-24-2 across Match Days 1 and 2.
The aggressive approach from teams needing results created one of the most offense-heavy final rounds we've seen in recent memory.
Both Teams Found the Net
One of the strongest betting trends of the entire tournament came in the Both Teams to Score market.
The BTTS "Yes" prop cashed in 39 of 72 matches, or 56% of all group-stage games.
That mark is tied for the highest rate since 1960.
The combination of expanded fields, more attacking styles and underdogs consistently finding goals created ideal conditions for BTTS bettors throughout the tournament.
Underdogs Kept Scoring
While underdogs didn't win at a particularly high rate, they rarely went quietly.
Depending on the closing odds and classification of certain matches, between 43 and 44 underdogs scored at least one goal during the group stage.
That means roughly 60% of all underdogs found the back of the net.
The expanded World Cup format raised questions about whether weaker nations would struggle offensively against traditional powers.
Instead, the opposite happened.
The majority of underdogs managed to score, helping fuel both the over and BTTS markets while keeping matches competitive deep into the second half.
Final Thoughts
A few notes on each group from a betting perspective.
Group A: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea and Czechia.
- No game reached 4+ total goals (unders were 4-2)
- South Korea got upset by South Africa (+500).
- South Korea and Czechia were both -300 to qualify for the Knockouts pre-tournament.
Group B: Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia, Qatar.
- Group finished in order of “to qualify” odds: Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia, Qatar.
- Overs went 4-1-1 in this group, including 4-0 in Match Days 2 and 3.
- Favorites went 4-2-0 (W-D-L) in this group.
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti.
- Group finished in order of “to qualify” odds: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti.
- Unders went 4-0 in Match Days 1 and 2 in this group and then 2-0 to over in Match Day 3.
- Brazil and Morocco dominated Scotland and Haiti, winning a combined 11-2.
Group D: USA, Australia, Paraguay, Turkiye.
- Turkey was -625 to qualify for the knockout stage and went 1-0-2 in the Group Stage.
- Favorites in this group went 2-1-3 (W-D-L), with Turkiye involved in all 3 of their losses.
Group E: Germany, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Curacao.
- In Germany’s 3 games, the over went 2-0-1, with at least 3 total goals in each game.
- In Ivory Coast’s 3 games, the under went 2-0-1, posting two clean sheets.
Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia.
- Group finished in order of “to qualify” odds: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia.
- In Match Days 1 and 2, this group went 4-0 to the over and overall it went 5-1 to the over in six matches.
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand.
- This was the group of draws. In six total games, we saw 4 end in draws, including both Match Day 1 games.
- Iran had the roller coaster of emotions in Match Day 3. They ended up drawing all 3 of their Group Stage games.
Group H: Spain, Cape Verde, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia.
- Cape Verde was the biggest longshot to qualify of the 32 teams in the knockout stage. They entered the tourney at +165, 9 other teams had worse odds and were eliminated.
- On the other side, Uruauay was -1400 to qualify for the knockouts and were eliminated.
Group I: France, Norway, Senegal, Iraq.
- This group saw heavy goal scoring. Overs went 5-1, 2-0 each on Match Days 1 and 3, and the only under was by a half goal.
- The chalk group. All six favorites in this group went 6-0-0.
Group J: Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan.
- All five odds-on favorites won their games in this group, and the two games without a massive favorite both drew.
- This group saw heavy goal scoring. Overs went 5-1, 2-0 each on Match Days 1 and 3, and the only under was by a half goal.
Group K: Colombia, Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan.
- Colombia was the lone non-favorite to win their group. Favorites went 11-for-12 in winning their group.
- There were 3 results in this group in which a team won by 2+ goals — all 3 came against Uzbekistan.
Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama.
- Panama was the only country not to score in the World Cup.
- Very tight result group. All matches were decided by 2 goals or fewer.
