The group stage has finally come to a close at the 2026 World Cup, with 32 teams having advanced to the knockout round, which is set to commence on Sunday afternoon.
After a thrilling three rounds of group games with several players staking their claim for the prestigious Golden Boot award presented to the World Cup’s top goalscorer, I will break down the award’s futures market prior to the start of the Round of 32.
Let's dive into my Golden Boot Award predictions and World Cup picks.
2026 World Cup Golden Boot Polymarket Odds
- Lionel Messi — 38 Cents
- Kylian Mbappe — 26 Cents
- Erling Haaland — 8 Cents
- Harry Kane — 5 Cents
- Vinícius Júnior — 5 Cents
Lionel Messi — 38 Cents
It is far from surprising to see Argentina’s Lionel Messi atop the Golden Boot futures’ market. The 39-year-old currently stands at 38 cents on Polymarket to win the award after having netted five in the team’s first two contests.
La Albiceleste’s free-roamer put on an absolute masterclass in the team’s 3-0 victory in its opener versus Algeria. Messi scored all three goals, which resulted in his passing Germany’s Miraslov Klose as the World Cup’s all time top goalscorer.
While it appeared that Messi would run away with the Boot after he scored twice over Austria, the star forward was left out of the starting lineup in the third group game versus Jordan, since Argentina is in a prime position in the knockout round draw.
Now that Messi remains at a total five goals scored in the 2026 World Cup thus far, he has far more value in the Golden Boot futures’ market to win the ever-evasive award.
Kylian Mbappe — 26 Cents
France center forward Kylian Mbappe currently sits as the second favorite to win the Golden Boot prior to the start of the Knockout Round.
In the nation’s first match, the Les Bleus’ superstar put on an masterclass in the team’s 3-1 victory over Senegal.
After a scoreless first half for France with Mbappe only having managed one touch in the opposition half in the match’s first 45 minutes, coach Didier Deschamps made some adjustments in the team’s attack placing Michael Olise into a central role.
France’s locker room adjustments paid off big time as Olise split the Senegalese backline with a beauty of a diagonal through ball through the center of the box that led to Mbappe burying one into the corner of the net.
In the 96th minute of stoppage time, Mbappe received the ball from 30 yards out and unleashed a spectacular strike that finessed its way past Senegal's Mendy into the corner of the net.
Following his remarkable performance, the French star dazzled in the team’s second match versus Iraq, once again delivering two wonderful goals in another dominant victory.
Despite having made just 17 World Cup appearances for France, he has scored 16 goals, trailing Messi as the second leading World Cup goalscorer of all time.
In France’s final game of group stages in a 4-1 victory over Norway, Mbappe failed to find the back of the net with the team’s 29-year-old right-winger Ousmane Dembélé having recorded a hat trick increasing his total World Cup goal count to four.
Following his three-goal performance, you can also back Dembélé to win the Golden Boot Award at 7 cents on Polymarket.
One can back Mbappe to win the Golden Boot at 27 cents on Polymarket, which still presents some solid value given his not scoring in France’s third matchup at the World Cup.
Erling Haaland — 8 Cents
There is a massive drop off in the Golden Boot futures market after Mbappe as Norway superstar striker Erling Haaland currently stands at 8 cents on Polymarket to reign supreme.
Norway’s premier goalscorer scored two goals in each of his first two contests in the team’s first two victories over Iraq and Senegal, respectively.
Given that Norway accumulated six points with two wins prior to its third group round contest versus France, manager Ståle Solbakken made the decision to sit Haaland considering the nation’s solid standing prior to its Round of 32 matchup.
While Haaland appeared to be a top contender following his first two World Cup matches, the Manchester City star slipped down the futures board quite substantially leaving quite the gap between Messi/Mbappe and the rest of the field.
That said, you can now back Haaland to win the Golden Boot at a far better number given that he's not playing in Norway’s third game of group stages.
Harry Kane — 5 Cents
England forward Harry Kane sits right alongside Haaland in the Golden Boot futures market prior to the Three Lions’ Round of 32 matchup to kick off the Knockout stage.
After finding the back of the net twice in the team’s 4-2 victory over Croatia in its opening World Cup match, Kane failed to do so in the second round of group games in a rather surprising 0-0 result versus Ghana.
In England’s final matchup in group stages, he found the back of the net once to increase his total World Cup goal count to three as we head into the Round of 32 on Sunday afternoon.
While he remains behind several footballers including Messi and Mbappe amongst several others, the Three Lions remain one of the favorites to win the World Cup which likely will result in Kane having far more opportunities to score than the majority of Golden Boot contenders.
In addition to England’s likely deep run into the later rounds of the World Cup, Kane is one of the premier penalty takers in the entire world which is an inherent edge upon considering which footballers have an edge in the Golden Boot futures market.
On Polymarket, you can back the English captain to win the Golden Boot at 5 cents which presents some decent value if England to go the distance.
Vinícius Júnior — 5 Cents
Brazil striker Vinícius Júnior is one of my favorite sleepers to win this award, having scored four goals in the team’s three group round contests.
Viní Jr scored one goal in each of Brazil’s first two group stage matches versus Morocco and Haiti, respectively.
The Brazilian star put on a masterclass in the third game of group rounds, having buried two goals in a 3-0 victory over Scotland with the youngster now having scored four goals heading into the Round of 32.
While many had concerns about this Brazil bunch heading into the World Cup with its vast struggles over the past few renditions, I placed a +1200 futures wager on them to reign supreme as I saw massive potential in a squad boasting exceptional athleticism and versatility on the pitch.
Behind the efforts of its superstar youngster Viní Jr, I view Brazil as a club that most are sleeping on as we head into the Knockout Rounds.
If Brazil is to finally break through from its struggles over the past few World Cups, it will be on the back of its premier goalscorer in Vinícius Júnior.
I view Vinícius Júnior as one of the best value wagers on the entire Golden Boot futures’ board, and you can bet on him to win the award at 5 cents on Polymarket.
