UEFA Champions League Winner: Polymarket Predictions, Odds

The UEFA Champions League semifinals continue next week with two exciting matchups that will draw the eyes of millions of soccer fans.

Catch the action on Tuesday, May 5th, with Atlético Madrid heading to Emirates Stadium to take on Arsenal. The second leg kicks off on Wednesday, May 6th, as Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) faces Bayern Munich at Allianz Arena.

From there, the two winning teams will play in The Grand Final on Saturday, May 30th at Puskás Aréna in Budapest, Hungary. Think you know who will go all the way? Well, here's what Polymarket traders are saying.

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UEFA Champions League Winner Polymarket Odds

Most Traded UEFA Champions League Winner Outcomes

To say the "UEFA Champions League Winner" market is popular would be an understatement. The Grand Final is still a month away, yet trading volume has already eclipsed $250 million, and traders are fairly split on which team will end up as the champion.

Bayern Munich currently sits at 32% (~$6.3 million), PSG at 31% (~$8 million), and Arsenal at 29% (~$7.3 million). Atlético Madrid may be down at 9%, but traders are targeting the value of its "Yes" contracts, evidenced by ~$24.6 million in volume.

UEFA Champions League Winner Prediction Market Analysis

Deciding who will come out on top in this clash of titans is a daunting task, but there are some notable storylines that should help traders navigate their options.

At this point, many believe that Arsenal is the frontrunner, including the Opta supercomputer, which gives them the highest title probability at ~39%. For those who may not know, Opta determines this by simulating every league game several thousand times.

Viktor Gyökeres and Martin Ødegaard lead a stacked lineup that showed well in the team's 1-1 draw against Atlético. Arsenal's chances of returning to the Champions League final for the first time since 2006 may ultimately rest on health. Kai Havertz seems doubtful to return next week, and both Bukayo Saka and Eberechi Eze were only fit enough to come off the bench last game.

Meanwhile, PSG has a strong chance of winning the Champions League for the second consecutive year. The team's electrifying 5-4 win over Bayern certainly made a statement as the pace of their counter-attack, led by Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembélé, exploited Bayern on numerous occasions. Unfortunately, PSG will be without Achraf Hakimi next game, meaning Bayern should have an easier time beating them out wide.

Bayern showed its resilience despite losing its last game, climbing back from a 5-2 deficit without manager Vincent Kompany. With Hakimi being ruled out and Kompany returning, the team might just have the tactical advantage it needs to take down the reigning champs.

While perhaps the weakest squad of the remaining four, Atlético is always a threat to make some noise under the tutelage of a manager like Diego Simeone. The team rebounded well in the second half to draw with Arsenal, coming a post away from pulling off the win. On the other hand, Atlético will have to find its groove at Emirates Stadium to move on, but it already lost 4-0 there during league play earlier this season.

Overall, we think buying "Yes" contracts is a solid bet for Bayern, PSG, or Arsenal. That said, we'd recommend Arsenal the most, as its "Yes" contracts are slightly cheaper at ~29 cents than PSG (~31 cents) and Bayern (~32 cents) despite being a favorite according to Opta and soccer pundits.

What's more, the roster is quite strong regardless of injuries and has the easiest path to The Grand Final. Additionally, with nearly a month between Champions League games, there will be time for possibly Havertz, Saka, and Eze to return to full strength.

When Will This Market Conclude?