The official announcement of Brazil’s 26-man roster by manager Carlo Ancelotti generated an absolute media firestorm across South America. The source of the frenzy? The inclusion of 34-year-old superstar Neymar after much speculation about injuries and internal disputes. With the World Cup in full throttle now the question is: will Neymar play even a single game during the tournament?
At Polymarket, traders are trying to figure out Ney’s true chances of entering the field.
Polymarket Odds
The Positive Sentiment on Neymar
Currently, traders believe Neymar will most likely play in the World Cup, with Yes shares trading at a very high price. Keep in mind that, for this market to resolve to Yes, the Brazilian superstar doesn't need to be on the starting squad.
Any on-field appearance as a player will qualify, in regulation, stoppage time, extra time or for a penalty shootout. Otherwise, the market will resolve to no.
The market thinks that it is highly unlikely that Carlo Ancelotti will not include Neymar for at least one match, as the manager took a major risk including him on the final World Cup list over younger, fully fit players.
The Contrarian Take on the Brazilian Superstar
As it stands, the No share appears as a long shot, but some traders are finding value in that contrarian take, and their main argument relies on Neymar’s absence from Brazil’s opening match.
Brazil and Morocco kicked off their World Cup participation on Saturday, June 13. The match ended in a draw and will most likely be crucial in determining the final positions of Group C. While Neymar was on the bench supporting his teammates, journalists already knew that he was not selectable to enter the field as he still is navigating the final stages of recuperation from a right calf injury that he sustained in mid-May.
Contrarian traders believe that time is against Neymar, and that his injury might be even more serious than the Brazilian team has claimed. According to many news outlets, Carlo Ancelotti plans to keep him sidelined during the group stage to prevent further injuries. As the World Cup progresses and matches become more physically demanding, the No shares might see a price spike.
But this position is highly risky. National teams tend to keep information very close to their chest. If Neymar is making an appearance, the news would break minutes before the match. Contrarian traders will have to be precise with their timing if they want to cash in on their shares before Ney steps onto the pitch at soccer’s biggest stage.
What Is Setting Back Ney?
Neymar’s main enemy is his health. He has not suited up for the national team since 2023 following a grueling anterior cruciate ligament tear and subsequent setbacks. That’s why local analysts and former footballers deemed his call-up an impossible gamble.
Ancelotti chose the Santos forward over healthy, high-performing Premier League stars like Chelsea’s Joao Pedro, igniting a fierce public debate.
The Potential Outcome
The strategic implementation of Neymar depends entirely on how Brazil performs without him. If the lightning-fast frontline of Vinícius Junior, Raphinha, and Endrick completely dominates the early stages, the technical staff will have absolutely zero incentive to rush Neymar back and risk a long-term muscle tear.
After the draw with Morocco, if Brazil fails to deliver a much-anticipated multi-goal victory against Haiti, then Neymar’s presence will be needed to secure qualification to the next round.
Despite all the drama, Neymar remains the country’s all-time top scorer, and his addition has proven psychologically beneficial for both the team and the fans. Even if he is not fully recovered, Ancelotti might depend on his skills to win a tough game.
