This New York Liberty team is one of the best WNBA teams I can remember, and the best way to bet on that holding true this season is backing their Head Coach, Sandy Brondello, to win WNBA Coach of the Year.
The available odds are limited in the market, but I like this at +1200 at BetMGM A LOT, and would play this down to +700. This is a combination of a chance to break records, having a talent pool that strays from winning other awards, and seeing a thin competition pool against her this year.
Let's start with the chance to break records. The NY Liberty are currently 7-0 on the season. The WNBA record for wins is 34-6 by the Las Vegas Aces just two seasons ago. If the Liberty stay healthy, they project to be favorites in AT LEAST 40 of the 44 games.
The only teams with power ratings that would possibly justify a home favorite against the road Liberty would be the Aces, who have struggled to start the season, and the Lynx, who have already dealt with numerous injuries. We already saw the Liberty close at -5 in Indiana against the Fever when Caitlin was healthy.
We also need to factor in the added games to the schedule. We now have a 44-game season, so breaking 34 is very likely. Although the win percentage may not be as high, the total wins are likely to be the most in WNBA history.
The reigning champions from last season are bringing back their entire core in Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones. Factor in the growth of Leonie Feibich and the addition of Natasha Cloud, and this team has five stars in this league. While they are so good, it also mitigates the chance that any individual player stands out enough to win the MVP or Defensive Player of the Year award. Stewie is in the top 5 mix for WNBA MVP, but she is overshadowed by Napheesa, A'ja, and Caitlin, who are all more individual engines of their franchises.
Ultimately, the competition pool is relatively small. The Atlanta Dream's Karl Smesko is atop the odds, Stephanie White, who took over the Fever, and Nate Tibbetts, who is at the helm of the Mercury's hot start. None of the prospects for these coaches deters my confidence in Brondello. All three teams mentioned above are already dealing with injuries to key players: Griner for ATL, Clark for IND, and Thomas for PHX. This should limit their team's upside over the next few weeks.
"Get Down On It," with Brondello at BetMGM.
