2026 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Predictions: Former Competitive Eater’s Picks

The 2026 Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest also marks the 250th anniversary of the United States of America. The event is taking place, as always, on Coney Island this Saturday, July 4.

It begins with the women's contest at 10:45 a.m. ET on ESPN3 and espn.com and concludes with the men's event on ESPN2 at noon ET and espn.com, and simulcast on ABC starting at 12:30 p.m ET.

Joey Chestnut is the 17-time champion and heavy favorite to win his 18th Mustard Belt.

Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds

Odds via FanDuel.

On the Women's side, 11-time champion Miki Sudo looks to defend her title as a heavy favorite at -1500 odds.

Odds via FanDuel.

2026 Hot Dog Eating Contest Predictions

I'm a former competitive eater who failed to qualify for this very contest in 2009, and I have a Ph.D. in mathematics. Does that make me a hot dog contest betting expert? Probably not (Editor's note: I mean, I'm not sure there's anyone else I would want to tail for my hot dog bets, you know?).

Two years ago, I hit Patrick Bertoletti to win at +1200 odds, and I'm looking to hit a few winners this year, as well.

Geoffrey Esper vs. Nick Wehry

Esper has yet to lose to Wehry in the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, and while the two were close last year with Esper beating Wehry by just two and one-eighth of a dog, part of that can be attributed to "dense buns," which caused almost everyone except the legend Joey Chestnut to come in under their over/under total, which naturally compresses the field.

Another way to look at this bet is through each eater's individual total.

At Caesars' Sportsbook, Esper's line is set at 47.5 with equal juice on either side of the bet, while Wehry's is 42.5. Traditionally, there's been about a 2.33 standard deviation among the "next four" (Patrick Bertoletti, James Webb, Esper and Wehry) in their spread of dogs eaten from the group's central point. So the margin of five would require Wehry to come in just over one standard deviation above his total and Esper to clock in just over one standard deviation below.

A five-dog gap in projected total is way too wide a margin for a -210 line, which is the line Caesars is hanging for Esper to beat Wehry. But we can do better.

Bet365 has this line at -180. They have Wehry at 44.5 juiced equally to each side, and while they don't have a total for Esper, they do have one for Webb. They have alt total milestones for Webb and Esper identical through the ladder, so we can infer Esper's total identical to Webb's, which is 48.5 juiced to the over. In other words, nearly the same 5-dog gap (probably closer to 4.75).

So, using both Caesars and bet365's totals, we can see that -180 for Esper to beat Wehry is nice value. And I'm fine with -210 at Caesars if that's all you have access to.

Pick: Geoffry Esper to beat Nick Wehry (-180 at bet365)

Telescopic Value

We all think the GOAT Joey Chestnut is going to win. But we don't want to lay -2500 or even worse in some spots. Instead, let's look at either the "Winner Without Joey Chestnut" or the "Exacta," also called the "Straight Forecast" bet, where we pick who will finish first and second in that exact order.

I've done extensive work analyzing each of the "next four" eaters, and even built a model to predict the range of outcomes of the next four.

This uses things like past Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest results, as well as a form measure that judges whether the eater has improved or gotten worse in form in contests they've performed year-over-year (YoY) relative to the next four eaters (to account for changing conditions).

When all is said and done, I'm showing Bertoletti rightly as the favorite to win after Chestnut, but the margin isn't as wide as the sportsbooks are making it out to be.

Instead, James Webb (no, not the telescope) has been on an absolute tear, improving, on average, around 3.3% YoY in like contests from last year to this year when normalized for conditions. On the flip side, Bertoletti has seen a 7% decrease in form YoY.

The two are pretty close in expectation, with Webb projected to be the winner without Chestnut around 40% of the time.

BetMGM is hanging +600 on this outcome. I love it.

Alternatively, if you're worried about Esper and Wehry, you can simply take Webb +200 over Bertoletti at Caesars.

Picks:

• Winner Without Joey Chestnut – James Webb (+600 at BetMGM)
• James Webb over Patrick Bertoletti (+200 at Caesars)

Women's Contest

Unfortunately, I don't have any bets on the women's contest right now, as the only markets being offered are on the women's winner and on Miki Sudo's total (as well as a matchup with her husband, Nick Wehry), but it is always an important contest to use as a measuring stick for totals.

Last year, "dense buns" was the theme as all the women came in under their total, and that projected forward to the men's side of the contest where everyone but Chestnut came in below their total.

This year, conditions are expected to be hot and humid, but cloud cover and a breeze might help things. We'll just have to wait and see how things play out, but here are the women's betting totals for Miki Sudo to use as a gauge for the men's contest.

I've also listed the total dogs eaten for each of the top Women's contestants last year to see if there's a trend in the field of surpassing last year or not.

Miki Sudo: 39.3 (FanDuel), 38.5 (BetMGM, juiced over), 39.5 (Caesars), 40.5 (bet365, juiced under)

Last Year:

• Sudo: 33
• Michelle Lesco: 22 3/4
• Domenica Dee: 21.5
• Tandra Childress: 16
• Katie Prettyman: 13 1/8
• Larell Marie Mele: 13