The odds on whether the U.S. government could confirm the existence of aliens this year surged following an announcement by President Donald Trump about declassifying related files.
The Republican said he will instruct several government agencies to identify and release records tied to unidentified flying objects, unidentified aerial phenomena, and possible extraterrestrial life.
Almost immediately, contracts tied to a White House confirmation of aliens jumped from a 17% to a 26% probability.
If you want to get in on the action and make a prediction, Kalshi allows users in most of the 50 U.S. states to make predictions and win real money. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
US Government Confirmation of Aliens Odds
Trump wrote on his Truth Social account that the move aims to gather and make public documents on matters he described as “highly complex, but extremely interesting and important.”
The decision followed remarks by former President Barack Obama during a rapid-fire Q&A on a podcast hosted by journalist Brian Tyler Cohen. Asked whether extraterrestrials are real, Obama said that aliens are “real,” but added that he had not seen them.
“They’re not being kept at Area 51. There’s no underground facility — unless there’s this enormous conspiracy and they hid it from the President of the United States,” he said.
Obama later clarified on Instagram that during his presidency, he didn't see “evidence” of contact with extraterrestrials, though he noted that, given the vastness of the universe, life beyond Earth is likely.
Beyond that, the comments not only reignited public debate over government transparency but also moved the odds on the existence of unidentified aerial phenomena.
“Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?” is the Kalshi market involved in the discussion. Skeptics remain the majority, but contracts backing a confirmation had fallen to around 9% earlier this year and nearly tripled in value following Trump’s latest directives.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
