A lot of juice has been taken out of the event this week because of the perceived one-sided nature of the USA squad versus the Internationals.
I wish I could say something different in this article to push the narrative in a unique direction. Unfortunately, 10 of my top-12 players for pure rating are on the USA team (Si Woo Kim and Hideki Matsuyama would be your two outliers).
Those two did grade as top-six overall golfers for me on the slate, based on how they fit Medinah. There may be something worth considering that we can dive deeper into for individual matchups.
Still, the International team has the bottom-six overall names, eight of the nine bottom-tiered players for best-ball and the bottom five for alternate shot. That doesn't exactly scream optimism, especially when someone like Russell Henley likely gets sat for best-ball and doesn't even become a relevant weakness for them on the slate.
My lean is to bet any of the alt-point spreads on the USA if I wanted to get involved. Having International captain Geoff Ogilvy on the renovation of Medinah #3 could help close the gap early on in the week if the team understands the nuances of the course better, but my model's deviation for them in singles and four-ball will be tough to overcome.
Let's dive into my President's Cup picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week's event. Make sure to download the Action Network App for more picks and analysis!
President's Cup Outright Picks
Scottie Scheffler Top Point Scorer (+550)
Look, the landslide that my model projects of 19.5 – 10.5 might end up being a smidge too much because I doubt the USA squad runs optimal pairings and lineups, but this onslaught of points that the team is expected to receive opens up a weird betting board if we believe it to be anywhere near correct.
Based on my projections, the International squad would be drawing thin toward finding the top point scorer (albeit not impossible if we believe someone can catch fire). More points for the USA can start to open up more possibilities for who could land in that spot, but the redemption arc of Scottie Scheffler in these team events is a nice place to start if we believe the USA is going to take care of business at Medinah.
| Competition | Overall Record | Foursomes | Four-Ball | Singles |
| Ryder Cup | 3–6–3 | 0–4–0 | 1–2–2 | 2–0–1 |
| Presidents Cup | 3–5–1 | 1–3–0 | 2–0–1 | 0–2–0 |
| Combined | 6–11–4 | 1–7–0 | 3–2–3 | 2–2–1 |
Scheffler has been bad by all accounts throughout his career. 1-7 in foursomes, a singles record that is average. It is not the prototypical resume you would expect from modern golf's best player over the last 15 years.
For a team looking to build momentum for the Ryder Cup in 2028, getting the best player in the world involved and confident is a good place to start. I expect Brandt Snedeker to ask Scheffler to go five matches deep (if he keeps winning), making this a spot where the best player on either team might get the most opportunities to score points. That feels like a recipe for success at his inflated +550 mark at some shops.
Collin Morikawa Top Point Scorer (+2200)
I strongly believed the two best risers in production for the USA squad in four-ball formats were Collin Morikawa and Wyndham Clark. I'm optimistic the duo will get off to a strong start tomorrow and make Morikawa's event number look big heading into Friday.
Clark has more "red flags" in his profile for alternate shot than we might see from Morikawa. Wide misses off the tee and middle-of-the-pack approach play don't add the promise we see on the side for Collin, who looks like a more natural five-match starter because of his playability in both formats.
I assume the American squad is entering the event with the idea that Morikawa will play at least four matches. Win the first three and get a chance to stay in the lineup on Saturday, and you can sneak out a top-scoring mark from him at this generous price tag. None of that is to say that Clark and Morikawa won't stay tied at the hip, which I am okay if they do, but Morikawa is a high-upside producer for this team that should get his fair share of work.
President's Cup Matchup Pick
Wyndham Clark/Collin Morikawa -118 over Adam Scott/Ryan Fox
Numbers are all over the map right now for these matchups. An option like Jackson Koivun/Justin Thomas landed as the biggest favorites on the board to win on Thursday. Unfortunately, that price got decimated in about 12.3 seconds and now sits in a very proper -180 zone.
Shop around and see if you can find any outlier numbers for Thomas/Koivun to beat Nico Echavarria/Corey Conners, but for the sake of this article, let's go with Clark/Morikawa to take out Scott/Fox.
As you will see above, this isn't a perfect matchup because my model found upside for someone like Ryan Fox. I thought Fox and Lee were the two "secret weapons" for the International squad to keep this closer than expected, but that now unkept secret, plus Adam Scott's experience factor, had books releasing this number shorter than what I had proper (-147).
I am going to trust my upside numbers for Clark and Morikawa as a team and hope this general rebate price doesn't have me regretting that I faded a golfer I thought we might be able to back as a value play early in the week.
