WM Phoenix Open Betting Guide: 5 Picks Our Expert Loves This Week

Justin Rose was not on my radar last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. He's one of the more interesting golfers on tour, as he'll randomly have these ceiling weeks out of nowhere. He'll go months without a strong finish, then he'll run away with an event or contend at a major (he nearly won the Masters last year). We are still looking for our first outright win of the season, but we will get there.

For those keeping track at home (I always love to be transparent), we are down 13 units to start the season. If you are new to betting on golf outrights, you always have to keep the bigger picture in mind. You might only hit a few winners all year and still end up being profitable. As hard as it can be, you can't stress about the short-term results. You have to zoom out and focus on the ultimate goal — being profitable in the long run.

We have one of my favorite events of the year on tap this week — the WM Phoenix Open. I've been to the event a couple of times and can assure you, it lives up to the hype. It's an environment unlike any other on the PGA Tour.

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Where is the WM Phoenix Open?

WM Phoenix Open Course Preview: TPC Scottsdale

TPC Scottsdale is a desert course that measures 7,261 yards. It's not the longest course on tour, but it's certainly not a short course when you consider the fact that it's a Par 71. This is one of the most driver-heavy courses that golfers will play all year. In 2025, the field hit driver on 90% of non-Par 3 tee shots. For reference, the tour average is 69%. Focusing on good drivers of the ball certainly makes sense this week, especially since you need to find the fairway to go for the Par 5s in two shots.

Good iron play is also critical this week, as you can find yourself in a lot of trouble if you aren't accurate with your approach shots. The greens are large (7,100 square feet) and fairly easy to hit in regulation, but you have to find the correct tier of the greens if you want to give yourself good birdie looks. Over the years, good ball strikers have had a ton of success at this event. The greens feature bermudagrass overseeded with poa trivialis.

I'm not a course history truther, but I do think it matters more than usual this week. Statistically speaking, TPC Scottsdale has the fifth most predictive course history of any course on the PGA Tour. Additionally, this event has an atmosphere unlike any other in professional golf. The event is expecting 700,000+ fans this week, and a lot of alcohol will be consumed.

Essentially, this is as close to a Happy Gilmore event as you are going to see in real life. Being able to calm your nerves in the crazy atmosphere will be a huge benefit.

2026 WM Phoenix Open Picks

We faded Scottie Scheffler the last time he teed it up and naturally, he made us pay for it.

After winning The American Express, he has now won seven of his last 14 events. This is a run that we haven't seen on the PGA Tour since prime Tiger Woods.

I'd love to bet Scheffler this week, but I can't stomach an outright in golf at +240. The one positive with Scheffler playing this week is that he improves the odds of everyone else in the field.

Si Woo Kim

+2800 at Caesars | 4% at Kalshi

We haven't seen Si Woo Kim play this well and this consistently for a very long time. He's made 10 straight cuts with no finish worse than T21 during that stretch.

He's played in each of the last three events, finishing T2 (Farmers Insurance Open), T6 (The American Express), and T11 (Sony Open). He's not a bomber, but he continues to gain strokes off the tee thanks to his accuracy.

Playing from the fairway at TPC Scottsdale is a huge advantage, especially on the par fives. He used to struggle mightily at this event, but he has finished T26 or better in each of his last four appearances. I love the form, the course fit, and the price this week.

Ben Griffin

+3300 at bet365 | 3% at Kalshi

According to my model, Ben Griffin is the second-best golfer in the field this week.

There's a massive gap between Scheffler and the rest of the field, but Griffin has been playing some tremendous golf over the last 12 months. During that stretch, he's picked up three wins and a ton of top-10 finishes. He's added distance off the tee, which has turned him into a complete golfer.

He's elite on approach, around the green, and on the green, so I don't see his form slipping anytime soon. He's made both of his cuts at this event in his career, and he's a much better golfer now than he was in those years. This is an extremely fair price.

Brooks Koepka

+4500 at BetMGM | 2% at Kalshi

Before last week's event, I told everyone that I wanted Brooks Koepka to make the cut but have a middling finish. Even more, I wanted him to show some good ball striking.

I got everything I asked for, as Koepka gained over four strokes on approach while making the cut and finishing T56. I don't think Torrey Pines is a good golf course for him, but TPC Scottsdale is one of his favorite stops on the PGA Tour. He loves the course, and he loves the atmosphere.

He's made five straight cuts here with two wins and a third-place finish. He seems more motivated than ever, which is scary for everyone else in the field.

Matt Fitzpatrick

+5000 at Caesars | 2% at Kalshi

If you only pay attention to the PGA Tour, you won't notice that Matt Fitzpatrick has been in elite form over the last five months.

In a six-event stretch on the DP World Tour, he had four top-6 finishes, including a win at the DP World Tour Championship.

His statistics look solid across the board, so don't be surprised if he goes on a big run this year on the PGA Tour.

I like the idea of betting him early before his odds crater. He has a decent track record at this event, posting three top-30 finishes in four appearances.

Rasmus Hojgaard

+6600 at BetMGM | 1% at Kalshi

The only downside with betting on one of the Hojgaard twins is that you are going to be kicking yourself if the other one wins. While I think both are viable this week, I'll side with the one who has two more career wins (Rasmus).

He's a good driver of the ball, he's excellent with his irons, and he's one of the best putters in the world. It's only a matter of time before he picks up his first win on the PGA Tour.

In his debut at this event last year, he finished T12.

When is WM Phoenix Open?

The 2026 WM Phoenix Open tees off on Thursday, February 5, 2026.

• What: 2026 Waste Management Phoenix Open
• When: February 5-8, 2026
• Where: TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Ariz.
• Par: 71
• Length: 7,261
• Purse: $9.6 million

Where to Watch The WM Phoenix Open?

2026 WM Phoenix Open TV Schedule

Round 1: Thursday, February 5

• Live stream: Hulu, Disney+ (Noon to 3 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: ESPN (Noon to 3 p.m. ET); Golf Channel (3 to 7 p.m. ET)

Round 2: Friday, February 6

• Live stream: Hulu, Disney+ (Noon to 3 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: ESPN (Noon to 3 p.m. ET); Golf Channel (3 to 7 p.m. ET)

Round 3: Saturday, February 7

• Live stream: Paramount+ (3 to 6 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (1 to 3 p.m.); CBS (3 to 6 p.m. ET)

Round 4: Sunday, February 8

• Live stream: Paramount+ (3 to 6 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (1 to 3 p.m.); CBS (3 to 6 p.m. ET)

Who is Favored to Win The 2026 WM Phoenix Open?

Scottie Scheffler is favored to win the WM Phoenix Open at +210 odds at DraftKings.

Behind Scheffler on the odds board is Xander Schauffele at +2000 odds to win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open. Schauffele was the favorite entering last week's tournament, the Farmers Insurance Open, but failed to make the cut.

Other notable favorites include Hideki Matsuyama at +2600, and Cameron Young, Ben Griffin, and Sam Burns all at +2700.

WM Phoenix Open 2026: Odds, Favorites

Odds via DraftKings as of Monday