2026 Farmers Insurance Open Picks: 4 Bets Our Expert Loves This Week

The Farmers Insurance Open is routinely one of the toughest events on the PGA Tour. I've always found that the tougher the course, the easier the event is to handicap. Birdie-fests like last week often turn into putting contests, and putting is the toughest statistic to predict on a week-to-week basis.

We had a couple of golfers in contention last week at The American Express. Matt McCarty was lurking on the leaderboard all weekend, and Si Woo Kim held a 2-stroke lead at one point on Sunday. Ultimately, there is no slowing down the freight train that is Scottie Scheffler. After a brilliant final round, he now has seven wins in his last 14 starts. His numbers are starting to look more like a video game than real life.

Let's try to find our first winner of the season this week at Torrey Pines.

Where is The Farmers Insurance Open?

Farmers Insurance Open Course Preview: Torrey Pines Golf Course

In order to accommodate a large field with limited daylight this time of year, we have another course rotation for this week's event. This one will be a little easier to follow than last week, as there are only two courses. Each golfer will play the Torrey Pines North Course and the Torrey Pines South Course before a cut is made after the second round. Then, the final two rounds will be played at the South Course.

The North Course is a Par 72 that measures 7,258 yards. It played much tougher than expected last year, but is typically one of the 15 easiest courses on tour. The fairways are generous, the greens are large (6,000 square feet), and the greens feature bentgrass. Golfers will need to take advantage of their one round on the North Course, as it provides more scoring opportunities than the South Course.

The South Course is an absolute brute. It is a Par 72 that measures 7,765 yards. It is regularly one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. Despite it's length, the fairways are quite narrow (28 yards wide), and the greens are quite small (5,000 square feet). To make matters worse, golfers will have to deal with thick rough if they miss the fairway. Even when they make it on the greens, it's still difficult. The greens feature poa annua, which can be very bumpy and unreliable. This is one of the most driver-heavy courses golfers will play all season, so we can bump up off-the-tee metrics this week.

In terms of the statistics that I am targeting this week, I am looking at Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Driving Distance, Strokes Gained Approach, Proximity from 200+ Yards, Bogey Avoidance, and Strokes Gained Around the Green. I don't mind looking at putting on poa annua, but we have a pretty small sample size when it comes to pure poa annua greens on the PGA Tour.

2026 Farmers Insurance Open Picks: 4 Bets Our Expert Loves This Week

We have some serious question marks with the three golfers at the top of the betting board this week. Xander Schauffele won in his last start, but he hasn't teed it up in over three months. It's hard to know the state of his game at the moment.

Ludvig Aberg struggled mightily last week at The American Express and ended up withdrawing. Patrick Cantlay played well last week (T13), but he hasn't won on tour since the 2022 BMW Championship.

I think we see the winner come from the mid-range of the odds board this week.

Hideki Matsuyama

+3000 at DraftKings | 4% at Kalshi

Hideki Matsuyama has never won this event, but he has made nine straight cuts here with four top-15 finishes during that stretch.

Whether or not you consider the Hero World Challenge a real event or not, it was good to see him get back in the winner's circle in December. In his first start of the year (Sony Open), he gained 8.4 strokes tee to green and finished T13.

Matsuyama has a good track record in California. He has played well on driver-heavy courses, he tends to shine on difficult courses, and he has good results on long Par 72 courses. His biggest weakness (his putter) is negated a bit, as tee to green matters more than usual this week.

Taylor Pendrith

+4000 at BetMGM | 3% at Kalshi

Taylor Pendrith is coming off a missed cut at The American Express, but it was right on the number, and he actually gained 2 strokes ball striking in his one round at the Stadium Course.

I'm not concerned in the slightest, especially since he finished T6 at the Sony Open, which isn't a course that necessarily fits his game.

Pendrith is one of the longest drivers of the ball on tour, so it's not a surprise to see his past success at this event (T7 and T9 the last 2 years). He's a good long iron player and has been a positive putter on poa annua surfaces throughout his career.

He's a great course fit at a good price.

Nicolai Hojgaard

+5500 at Caesars | 2% at Kalshi

I went back and forth between Nicolai Hojgaard and Pierceson Coody in this range, but the latter seems to play his best on easier courses. I also gave the nod to Hojgaard since he played here and finished second in 2024.

There are a lot of reasons to like Hojgaard this week. He's one of the longest hitters in the field and is excellent with his long irons.

Those who don't pay attention to the DP World Tour will miss his encouraging form, as he's posted 4 top 15 finishes in his last 5 starts, including a T4 finish at last week's Hero Dubai Desert Classic.

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen

+8000 at bet365 | 2% at Kalshi

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen is another bomber from the DP World Tour who is making my betting card this week. He's quietly worked his way up to 53rd in the OWGR, which is better than most of the golfers in this field.

He hasn't played a ton on this side of the pond, but he gained over 2 strokes tee to green in some elite fields — the US Open, the PGA Championship, and the Valspar Championship.

If you count his numbers from the DP World Tour, he's one of the best tee to green of anyone in the field. He's never played here before, but he's worth a sprinkle at +8000 after just winning in Australia last month.

When is The Farmers Insurance Open?

The 2026 American Express tees off on Thursday, January 29, 2026.

• What: 2026 Farmers Insurance Open
• When: January 29-February 1, 2026
• Where: Torrey Pines Golf Course, San Diego, Calif.
• Par: 72
• Length: 7,765 & 7,258
• Purse: $9.6 million

Where to Watch The Farmers Insurance Open?

2026 Farmers Insurance Open TV Schedule

Round 1: Thursday, January 29

• Live stream: Hulu, Disney+ (Noon to 3 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: ESPN (Noon to 3 p.m. ET); Golf Channel (3 to 7 p.m. ET)

Round 2: Friday, January 30

• Live stream: Hulu, Disney+ (Noon to 3 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: ESPN (Noon to 3 p.m. ET); Golf Channel (3 to 7 p.m. ET)

Round 3: Saturday, January 31

• Live stream: Paramount+ (3 to 6 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (1 to 3 p.m.); CBS (3 to 6 p.m. ET)

Round 4: Sunday, February 1

• Live stream: Paramount+ (3 to 6 p.m. ET)
• TV coverage: Golf Channel (1 to 3 p.m.); CBS (3 to 6 p.m. ET)

Who is Favored to Win The 2026 Farmers Insurance Open?

Xander Schauffele is favored to win the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open at +1300 odds at DraftKings.

Behind Schauffele on the odds board is Ludvig Aberg at +1650 odds to win the Farmers Insurance Open. Next up is Cameron Young at +1800, Si Woo Kim at +2250, Patrick Cantlay at +2300, and J.J. Spaun at +2400.

2026 Farmers Insurance Open Odds, Full Field

Odds via DraftKings