Farmers Insurance Open Picks: Data-Driven Model Likes 3 Outrights, 2 Matchups

The 2026 Farmers Insurance Open tees off on Thursday from Torrey Pines Golf Courses in San Diego.

Here are my overall thoughts on the tournament, the odds board, and some betting value my model has found in the outright market as well as matchups.

These are my Farmers Insurance Open picks for this week on the PGA Tour.

Farmers Insurance Open Picks

Data-Driven Model Likes 3 Outright Winner Bets

There is a lot to like about the +3500 to +8000 section on the odds board this week for the Farmers Insurance Open. Names like Michael Thorbjornsen, Pierceson Coody, TaylorPendrith and a handful of others ended up slotting in as "just missed" options.

All of those golfers showed some value at their price tags, which typically is a sign that my model has incorrect pricing in other areas to boost any particular zone. 

It is not as if we can select every player this week when the list does extend further than a card would allow me to go, but here are a few of the names that I did decide to back on the board this week. You can see my entire card at the bottom. 

Wyndham Clark +5000

Consider this a tale as old as time. I don't know if it is me trying to repeat history of when I connected on Clark twice at 100/1 (U.S. Open and Pebble Beach), or if my model is just very quick to find value on him once his odds start to boost. Still, regardless of the reason, I saw enough at the American Express to get hooked back in for the week at 50/1 odds.

I've talked a lot throughout articles and podcasts about how we may get 75% of our rounds on the South Course, but how much less than 75% of the overall production lands there because of the need to score in your singular North opportunity.

Seven holes feature over a 20% birdie or better percentage on the North, including four par-five setups that produce almost a 15% higher birdie or better rate than on the South. There is a reason why six of the last seven winners have fired a four-under or better in their one-off round on the North, and even the sole outlier (Matthieu Pavon) still managed to land at three-under for his day.

Clark shows that upside at the North in spades, but it was his overall profile of consistency at both the North and the South that pushed me fully into this direction.

Here were the only names to land top-40 for all North/South scoring returns.

The floor is going to be lower than some of these 50/1 choices on the board, but I do believe the ceiling is higher than most. Inside of purely the outright market, we should be shooting for that win equity.

Garrick Higgo +6500

What would a weekly Action article be without me highlighting a golfer from my UNLV alma mater? At some point, I want to know whether I can be paid NIL dollars for all the promotional work I do for the school.

Garrick Higgo ended his 2025 season by posting results of fourth, fourth, second and seventh. Anyone who reads my articles weekly will know that I believe this amounts to nothing more than giving the sportsbooks ammunition to tank pricing and get players into suboptimal ranges relative to their expected win rates. Once a sportsbook sees the form, you are never going to get the price you believe you are in the outright market. It doesn't mean they won't still win at an inferior price, but it is the sad truth of why so many of us sometimes miss out on victories.

It could be the layoff in this spot of being out of sight and out of mind. Perhaps it is the subpar course history. However, Higgo's opening price in the 60s did make me take a swing on a golfer who massively excels from a data perspective on the North Course. My model ranked him second for Expected Birdies and ninth for Weighted Scoring.

Nicolai Hojgaard +6600

I unloaded on Nicolai Hojgaard here in 2024 during his second-place finish against Matthieu Pavon. Hojgaard probably needed a break last season after the close call (I know I did with him), but we are both back and ready to see him climb the leaderboard in a tournament tailor-made for his game.

My model ranked Hojgaard as the fourth-rated player in this field on similar Poa greens/putting on any green complex between 0-15 feet. The return is accompanied by an 18th-place grade when diving into proximity from 200+ yards, a total that raises his baseline by nearly 80 spots when including other distances. Consider that particular metric crucial since almost 34% of second shots occur from 200+ this week.

There is a reason Hojgaard opened in the 60s this week, but low penalty courses for wayward drives that reward distance will always be his calling card for high-end success.

Data-Driven Model Likes 2 Matchup Bets

Andrew Novak (-125) over Tony Finau

I once thought this was a spot where Tony Finau would win and wrote about it yearly. Now, I view this as a situation to fade him because of the course history returns that are boosting his price point.

Is it possible that Finau enters Torrey Pines and finds something? Of course! We see this happen yearly for countless players, but it is not as if the current metrics are going to show anything close to what the long-term data suggests for him in my model.

Finau's top-25 grades for California/Poa and Weighted Scoring at similar courses are more influenced by history than by recent results. When that ends up being the case for a golfer, you typically get reduced pricing and more volatility than meets the eye for head-to-head wagers.

Finau's upside is going to surpass his safety if you are looking for markets to play him in this week, but I like this spot because it also delivers an underrated Andrew Novak, who was my fade of the week at the American Express against Johnny Keefer. No Pete Dye should be a massive boost for someone that looked solid for two of three days.

Sami Valimaki (-110) over Mackenzie Hughes

I am going to start this by saying I don't trust Sami Valimaki whatsoever. I understand that isn't a great sales pitch for a matchup wager. However, betting is about finding these gross spots where you can number-grab an edge. Countless attempts at similar answers should yield results over time, even if individual endeavors run the risk of implosion.

Valimaki's five-over at the Nicklaus track last week is a thing of nightmares. We are talking about a performance that landed him nearly 10 shots below average production. There is no way to shake that fear, but I am going to view that as a one-off performance for someone who has rendered back-to-back top-45 finishes at this course over the past two seasons.

Hughes' data shows a golfer with a very limited ceiling because of his poor proximity numbers and weak driver. My hope is that even if Valimaki underperforms, we can win a missed-cut versus missed-cut battle. If both overperform, Valimaki's ceiling is a lot higher.

For all the talk and fear of Valimaki not showing up, the deeper metrics still like him a lot more than they probably should this week. Sometimes you have to close your eyes and trust the data.

2026 Farmers Insurance Open Outright Winner Picks

• Jake Knapp (+5000)
• Wyndham Clark (+5000)
• Will Zalatoris (+5200)
• Garrick Higgo (+6500)
• Nicolai Hojgaard (+6600)
• Akshay Bhatia (+10000)
• Austin Smotherman (+25000)