Read our UFC Mexico City predictions for this live event on Saturday from Arena CDMX in Mexico City. As is the new normal, the prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with a 9:00 p.m. main card.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Mexico City Moneyline Projections
UFC Mexico City Prop Projections
Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Regina Tarin
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:15 p.m. ET
The first bet I made this week was an attempt to fade Ernesta Kareckaite. That bet fell through (after picking up a ton of CLV) due to Sofia Montenegro being forced to withdraw from the card, but I'm sticking to my guns with a bet on her replacement, Regina Tarin.
Ironically, Montenegro earned her way to the UFC by replacing Tarin's scheduled Contender Series bout, but both women are now officially a part of the promotion.
Tarin is an undefeated 21-year-old prospect with six finishes in her seven pro wins, training out of BoneBreakers MMA in Mexico City alongside David Martinez among others. She's primarily a striker, and was in camp for a scheduled Muay Thai bout in Mexico City this week before getting the call up to the UFC.
Due to being in camp, I'm far less worried about the short-notice nature of this fight at extreme elevation. Plus, she lives and trains in Mexico City, so if anything she should be better prepared for the conditions than Kareckaite.
The reason I'm so keen on fading Kareckaite is how she's amassed her 6-2 record. Somehow, her last four wins have all come via split decision — which is both incredibly fortunate and also makes her hard to bet on as a favorite.
She's a high-volume striker who does little damage, which means even a couple big shots from her opponent can potentially sway rounds against her. With Tarin being a dangerous striker and finisher, she could easily steal two rounds here — especially with a raucous local crowd going crazy when she has positive moments.
The best line on Tarin is presently +152 at FanDuel, but I'd take her at any plus-money line.
Pick: Regina Tarin +152 (FanDuel)
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes
John Lanfranca, Action Network Contributor
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:45 p.m. ET
Javier Reyes is riding a wave of momentum as he joins the UFC main roster. His first test will be a fight against 40 year-old Douglas Silva de Andrade.
Make no mistake, even at his advanced fighting age, this is the toughest opponent Reyes has yet to face in his career. It is tempting to back the underdog in this spot, but I will simply side with this being a competitive bout that gets extended.
Reyes needs to avoid the early power shots of Silva de Andrade, but he has the tools and can push the pace to do so. Reyes will unleash low kicks and attack the body in an attempt to wear down on the veteran. Silva de Andrade will also have to be mindful of the threat of the opportunistic takedown coming his way from Reyes.
Silva de Andrade has proven incredibly durable throughout his career. His year-and-a-half-long layoff is stopping me from backing him on the moneyline, but he should make life difficult for the newcomer making his debut. Five of the last seven fights involving Silva de Andrade have gone the 15-minute distance, and I expect this bout will as well.
To insulate from potential high-altitude cardio concerns in round three, I will opt to shave 2.5 minutes off the final frame and instead play the over 2.5 rounds. Reyes most likely outworks the aging veteran, but Silva de Andrade will be much more difficult to put away than the competition Reyes faced in LFA or on Dana White’s Contender Series.
Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds -110 (bet365)
Ailin Perez vs. Macy Chiasson
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:30 p.m. ET
I projected Ailin Perez as a near-200 favorite for Saturday's tilt against fellow top-seven bantamweight Macy Chiasson, and I like her moneyline up to around -190. Moreover, I set her submission probability at +877, and would take +900 or better for Perez to finish the fight on the mat.
Perez is the smaller fighter in the matchup (5" shorter, 6" reach discrepancy) but has proven reliable at proactively grappling – averaging 9.9 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance (five times the divisional average of 1.9) while generating a 65% control rate in clinch and grappling exchanges.
While Chiasson has spent a similar amount of her own grappling time in control positions (65%), most of that time has come in controlling clinch positions as the bigger, stronger fighter; she has not faced wrestling volume like this, and has also shown either an inability or unwillingness to scramble up from bottom once she's put flat on her back.
Moreover, Perez has the better gas tank; Chiasson, who has missed weight at both 145 and 135 pounds, cuts a lot of weight prior to fights, which generally drains her gas tank for the second and third rounds of her fights; competing at 7,000+ feet of elevation in Mexico City should only exacerbate that issue.
As a result, while I like Perez pre-fight, I would also target her live odds after Round 1.
