The UFC's annual Mexico City card goes down this weekend, with a makeshift main event between former champion and Mexico native Brandon Moreno taking on Lone'er Kavanagh. Moreno was originally booked for a different opponent, but this is still an exciting flyweight bout between a former champion and an intriguing young prospect.
The 13-fight card starts at 5:00 p.m. ET on Saturday and airs on Paramount+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Mexico City odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Mexico City Predictions & Luck Ratings
Brandon Moreno (-238) vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (+195)
I've been a massive fan of Lone'er Kavanagh since his appearance on the Contender Series — in part because he paid off my +450 bet in the first fight of the 2024 season. With that said, I can't think of a tougher scenario for a short-notice fight than a five-rounder in Mexico City.
This will be the first-ever five-round fight for Kavanagh, who is coming off an upset loss to Charles Johnson last August. Kavanagh was dominating that fight before getting caught late in the second round — just like now-champion Joshua Van before him — but fading down the stretch as he did doesn't do much to instill confidence in him in a 25-minute fight.
On the positive side, Kavanagh has had a couple weeks' notice, and was preparing for a fight in early March, so he's not coming in completely unprepared. I'm not sure if that's enough given the notoriously difficult conditions in Mexico City, which feature both extreme elevation and poor air quality most of the time.
Those conditions are nothing new for Moreno, who has three prior UFC fights in Mexico City, including two five-rounders. The former champion is coming off a loss to Tatsuro Taira that was potentially an early stoppage, but he is still only 32 years old and not quite past his peak. He's also only ever lost to champions or title challengers, so this is a significant step down for him.
That makes the moneyline in this fight roughly appropriate, but I'll be looking for some version of late or live props on Moreno, who should be far better prepared for the championship rounds in this fight.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Ernesta Kareckaite (-340) vs. Sofia Montenegro (+270)
Sofia Montenegro put on one of the best fights of the season during last year's Contender Series, and impressed the UFC bosses so much that she was awarded a contract despite a split decision loss. Of course, that split decision was fairly controversial, and I personally would've scored it her way.
Ernesta Kareckaite was on the positive side of a split decision during her own Contender Series fight, and has followed that up with a unanimous decision loss and another split decision win. Kareckaite's style lends itself to close decisions, with a high-volume, low-power striking style. She also doesn't grapple much, with her clear loss coming due to being held down for extended periods by Dione Barbosa.
Her inability to clearly win rounds dates back even before her UFC career, with two pre-UFC split decision wins and a draw on her record. All in all, four of her six career wins have been disputed by the judges.
That fact alone makes it hard to see how she could be a more than three-to-one favorite against any other UFC-level opposition, especially one as violent and aggressive as Montenegro. Plus, Kareckaite's previous loss came to Dione "The Wicth" Barbosa, and Montengro's nickname "La Bruja" is Spanish for "The Witch. I'm betting that the magic continues to work against her this week, so give me the +240 on Montenegro, and possibly a point spread bet later in the week as well.
The best line is +255 at FanDuel.
Verdict: Montenegro Undervalued
