Updated Daytona 500 Betting Pick: The Driver Who’s Way Undervalued Entering Monday’s Restart

Updated Daytona 500 Betting Pick: The Driver Who’s Way Undervalued Entering Monday’s Restart article feature image
Credit:

Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott and Erik Jones

  • After the 2020 Daytona 500 got delayed on Sunday due to rain, sportsbook reposted odds on all 40 cars to win.
  • One pick stood out to PJ Walsh right away after surveying the updated odds.
  • Walsh details why he's targeting one of the Toyota drivers who will start toward the back of the pack after the weather-delayed race gets underway at 4 p.m. ET on FOX.

Thanks to rain, the Daytona 500 was postponed until 4 p.m. ET Monday after completing just 20 of 200 laps. Because this race is NASCAR’s most high-profile event, sportsbooks have reopened Daytona 500 odds, providing bettors another opportunity to find value on this race.

Interestingly, some sportsbooks have been aggressive in adjusting their odds based on the current running order.

However, making significant adjustments to odds at a superspeedway race often isn’t correct, especially when you’re only 10% of the way through a race. Elite drivers toward the back of the field can often make a run to the front quite easily at tracks like Daytona — something that isn’t true at most other racetracks.

With that in mind, let’s look a pack of drivers who present betting value heading into Monday’s restart.

[If you’re looking for a few Daytona 500 longshots, check out Nick Giffen’s two favorites, both of which still have value entering Monday’s restart.] 

Daytona 500 Betting Picks

Top Toyota drivers Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Erik Jones and Christopher Bell all dropped to the back of the pack at the beginning of the race on Sunday. It was a very clear coordinated move to run together and stay out of trouble until the end of the race.

But not all sportsbooks seem to be aware of this. I’m looking to target these drivers if their odds drastically differ from where they closed on Sunday.

Again, remember: We’re only 10% of the way through the race.

Here’s where these five Toyota drivers — plus Clint Bowyer, who’s another top-tier driver at the back — closed in terms of odds on Sunday:

  • Kyle Busch: 9-1 odds
  • Denny Hamlin: 9-1 odds
  • Martin Truex Jr.: 11-1 odds
  • Erik Jones: 28-1 odds
  • Christopher Bell: 50-1 odds
  • Clint Bowyer: 25-1 odds

There’s one driver presenting quite a lot of value based on where sportsbooks re-posted his number.

Jones, despite closing at 28-1 and making a strategic move to the back, is currently 40-1 at Westgate, a number that I bet this morning in Vegas. I like Jones down to 35-1; at that price, you’re still getting a nice bump based on his closing number.

As I mentioned above, Jones is 33rd in the running order, but is perfectly fine when the race resumes. If you can find deflated odds on any of these six aforementioned drivers at your book, I’d recommend making some additions to your Daytona betting card before the race gets underway at 4 p.m. ET.

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