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Thursday’s NBA slate features just five games, but the FantasyLabs Player Props tool has still identified a handful of potentially exploitable props, with nine currently having a Bet Quality of at least nine out of 10.
Here are three props that I’m eyeing on tonight’s slate.
Celtics SG Jaylen Brown under 14 points (-143)
8:00 p.m. ET | TNT
Brown is coming off a 21-point game on Monday, but that came with Kyrie Irving out of the lineup. Irving will make his return today for the Celtics, which means that Brown should return to his normal role. He’s finished below 14 points in five of his past seven games, with another just missing the cut at 15. The only time Brown has really gone off with Irving in the lineup recently has been against the Knicks, who have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league since losing Kristaps Porzingis for the season. Minnesota isn’t a great defensive team, but they will be extremely well rested after not playing since last Friday.
Spurs PF LaMarcus Aldridge under 8.5 rebounds (-125)
10:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Aldridge has finished with more than 8.5 rebounds just once in his past 12 games, with the lone execption coming against the Phoenix Suns. There is a chance that he sees some additional minutes at center today with Pau Gasol out with an injury, but that has only had a marginal impact on his rebounding numbers (per 82games.com):
- 65 rebounds per 36 minutes at power forward
- 68 rebounds per 36 minutes at center
Aldridge grabbed only five boards in his most recent game with the Warriors, and the current 11.5-point spread suggests that Aldridge could spend the fourth quarter on the bench watching a blowout.
Heat PG Goran Dragic under 17.5 points (-114)
7:30 p.m. ET
The Heat are nearing full strength, with Tyler Johnson rejoining the rotation on Monday and Wayne Ellington expected to rejoin the rotation today. That should have a negative impact on Dragic, and that’s been reflected in his usage rate over the past three games. He’s been at 21.7 percent or fewer in all three of those contests and has failed to crack 17.5 points in each game as a result. Today’s game against the 76ers should also be a tough one on for Dragic: The 76ers currently rank fifth in defensive efficiency, and Miami’s resulting implied team total of 105.25 is the fourth-lowest mark on today’s slate.
Top photo: Jaylen Brown; credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports