Five NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday Night
Joe Camporeale- USA Today Sports
Wednesday features a nine-game NBA slate, which means we’ve got plenty of opportunity to find exploitable prop bets. The FantasyLabs Player Props tool has currently identified six prop bets with a Bet Quality of 10 and an additional 19 props with a Bet Quality of at least eight. As usual, make sure to check back with the Props tool throughout the day since it is updated regularly to account for any breaking news and changes in projections.
Here are five props that stand out to me on tonight’s slate, featuring players in games that start at 7:30, 8, 8:30, and 10:30 p.m. ET.
Grizzlies PG Andrew Harrison over 13.5 points (-125)
8 p.m. ET
The Grizzlies have been a disaster recently, but they appear to be in a wonderful spot tonight against the Phoenix Suns. They currently have a Vegas implied team total of 109.75 points, which represents an increase of nearly 11 points when compared to their season average (98.8). The Suns have also been a dumpster fire defensively without Tyson Chandler this season, allowing opponents to average 119.3 points per 100 possessions. To put that in perspective, the Warriors only average 114.1 points per 100 possessions, so facing the Suns without Chandler essentially turns every team into one of the best offenses in league history. Harrison has served as one of the Grizzlies’ offensive focal points of late, posting a usage rate of at least 25.4 percent and exceeding 13.5 points in three of their past four games.
Rockets SG Eric Gordon under 15.5 points (-143)
10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Gordon is expected to make his return for the Rockets after missing three straight games with an illness. That said, he’ll be rejoining one of the deepest rotations in the league, which means the Rockets will be able to ease him back into the lineup if they so desire. Gordon has also seen a decrease in offensive responsibilities since the beginning of the season, resulting in fewer than 15.5 points in each of his past six games before the illness.
Celtics SG Jaylen Brown under 14 points (-125)
7:30 p.m. ET
Brown has seen a decrease in playing time recently, playing 26 minutes or fewer in two of his past three games. He’s currently projected for just 25.6 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Player Models, which will make it tough for him to exceed 14 points against a solid Hornets’ defense. Brown has only exceeded 14 points once in his past five games, and that came against the defensive disaster known as the New York Knicks.
Suns SG Devin Booker under five assists (-114)
8:00 p.m. ET
This game is an extreme pace-down spot for the Phoenix Suns. The Grizzlies have played at the slowest pace in the league this season, averaging roughly six fewer possessions per game than the Suns. That should result in fewer opportunities for Booker to rack up assists, which is something he’s only mildly adept at doing anyway. He’s posted fewer than five assists in three of his past four games, and his usage rate of 31.4 percent this season suggests he’s much more inclined to shoot the ball than pass it.
Pelicans PG Rajon Rondo over 7.5 points (-125)
8:30 p.m. ET
Betting on Rondo to do anything but pass the ball seems a bit crazy, but I think there’s value with the over at this number. Rondo has played 36 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s averaging 10.8 points per 36 minutes so far this season. The Spurs will likely do everything possible to try and stop the red-hot Anthony Davis from beating them, which could also result in a few additional shot attempts for Rondo in this contest.