The Boston Celtics (43-22) and Oklahoma City Thunder (51-15) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Thunder are 6.5-point favorites over the Celtics on the spread (Thunder -6.5), with the over/under set at 217.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -270 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Boston is +220 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Celtics vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, March 12.
Celtics vs Thunder Prediction, Pick
- Celtics vs Thunder pick: Celtics +6.5 (-108)
My Thunder vs Celtics best bet is on Boston to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Celtics vs Thunder Odds
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -108 | 217.5 -108o / -112u | +220 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -112 | 217.5 -108o / -112u | -270 |
Celtics vs Thunder NBA Preview
Basketball fans appear to be poised for an elite defensive battle in this matchup, as no other teams are generating stops like the Celtics and Thunder this season.
Boston boasts the NBA's best scoring defense and is giving up a league-low 107.2 points per game.
The Celtics haven't had all the same key defensive pieces that helped them finish last season with the league's second-best scoring defense, but it remains dominant.
The Celtics cleared cap space by trading Jrue Holiday to the Trail Blazers and lost Al Horford to the Warriors in free agency ahead of 2025-26.
Jaylen Brown and Derrick White have anchored their defense just fine without the aforementioned players.
Now, Boston could be set to ascend to another level with the face of its franchise back in action.
Jayson Tatum made his season debut earlier this month after recovering from the torn Achilles that he suffered during last year's postseason. The 28-year-old wing can raise the Celtics' ceiling on both ends of the floor as long as he's healthy.
Whether he can make a significant impact on Thursday's game against the reigning champs on a minute restriction remains to be seen, though. He's still finding his rhythm and is averaging 19.7 points on 39.3% shooting, while logging 27.0 minutes per night through three outings this season.
Oklahoma City has had its own injury woes during its title-defense season.
The Thunder are giving up the second-fewest points per game (107.9) and rank fourth in points per game (118.8), even though Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Isaiah Hartenstein have all missed 12 or more games this campaign.
Williams, a 2025 All-Star, has missed a whopping 40 games due to a lingering hamstring injury.
Oklahoma City still has other players who can get the job done, though.
Chet Holmgren is having a career year with personal bests in points (17.3) and rebounds (9.0) per game.
The Thunder's efficient and hard-nosed style of basketball never changes, regardless of who's available. That could make it difficult for Boston to avoid dropping its third straight game to the home team.
Nikola Vucevic (finger) is out for the Celtics, and Payton Pritchard (neck) is probable, while Tatum (conditioning) and White (knee) are questionable.
Williams (hamstring) and Hartenstein (calf) are out for the Thunder.
Celtics vs Thunder Predictions, Betting Analysis
There's been speculation that Tatum might get the day off for load management purposes after playing in three straight games, but that doesn't change the fact that Oklahoma City is on a terrible run against the spread.
The Thunder are riding a six-game winning streak, but have failed to cover the spread six times during that stretch — and the Celtics are one of the last teams you want to have that problem against.
Boston is 8-5 against the spread as a road underdog this season and has covered in two of the three games Tatum appeared in.
If you believe that the Celtics can cover without Tatum like me, this line makes a lot of sense.
Whether he'll play or not is a coin toss, but I'm banking on him lacing up in a competitive game, and then he'll rest against the Wizards on Saturday.
Pick: Celtics +6.5 (-108)
