Pacers vs Bucks Prediction, Picks Tonight | NBA Best Bet for Wednesday

Here's everything you need to know about Pacers vs Bucks on Wednesday, Jan. 3 — our expert Pacers bs Bucks prediction and betting picks for today.

We will once again be treated to a meeting between two of the best offenses in basketball when the Pacers play host to the Bucks in the second leg of a home-and-home. It was the Pacers who once again took out Milwaukee on New Year's Day, giving them three wins in four tries against the Eastern Conference powerhouse, but the Bucks are hot and showing no signs of slowing down — making this anyone's game.

Let's get to our Pacers vs Bucks prediction and pick.

Pick: Bucks -3 | Play to -4

The Pacers may have an excellent track record against the Bucks when it comes to their defensive play, particularly on the perimeter, but for the season they're ranked just 27th in defending the 3. As the 28th-ranked defense in the game, you'd expect nothing less, though Indiana does have a slight advantage at the rim, where they rank 12th thanks to the efforts of Myles Turner and Jalen Smith. That certainly comes in handy against a team like Milwaukee which is equally as dangerous inside of four feet, and if you can benefit from some missed 3s then you can certainly find a path to victory.

Indiana's home/road splits are even more notable than Milwaukee's. While the Bucks' success from deep is around one point better at home, the Pacers' 3-point percentage grows by nearly seven percentage points when shooting on their home rims. This is a trend worth noting considering they're an impressive 3-1 against Milwaukee despite shooting just 28.3% from deep in four contests, though it's certainly understandable given the Bucks' top-five 3-point defense.

The injury report is slightly less damning than the Bucks', but both Andrew Nembhard and Bruce Brown are listed as questionable for this tilt. That could really call the Pacers' backcourt depth into question with T.J. McConnell and Bennedict Mathurin asked to play big minutes.

The Bucks are up against it here in more ways than one. Not only have the Pacers owned them this season in their four meetings, including the In-Season Tournament semifinal, the Bucks have also had a hard time playing away from home. They're a stunning 16-3 in Milwaukee, but just 8-6 in road games.

One of the big reasons for this is the fact that the Bucks, who thrive from downtown, have seen a dip in their 3-point shooting on the road. They've also shot just 29.9% from 3 in their four meetings with Indiana, which is a difficult way to live when you're up against the top offense in the NBA.

Making matters even worse here for Milwaukee is that Khris Middleton is in danger of missing this game with a questionable tag. The Bucks are saying he's dealing with a left wrist sprain and may also sit due to his ongoing recovery from knee surgery, which is certainly daunting, though his shooting numbers have been more or less stable of late so it's anyone's guess how big of a deal this really is.

It's hard to find any nuance in a matchup between two teams that can score the ball this well, particularly when we've already seen it four times. We can safely say that if either team can gain a leg up from the 3-point arc, then they will win convincingly, though given both team's struggles from deep in these meetings it's hard to pick a winner.

With that said, the Pacers' defense is clearly inferior when it comes to defending the 3-point line, even though they've done a great job against Milwaukee this season. Much like our handicap of the Knicks and Bucks on Christmas Day, sometimes you have to bet on shooting variance to kick in and the season-long numbers to finally come into play.

Indiana is giving up a ton of open looks from deep, and I do not expect the Bucks to keep missing them in this matchup — even on the road. They're favorites here for a reason, and I also do think the injuries mounting in the backcourt could come into play here for Indiana.

Pick: Bucks -3 | Play to -4