Thursday NBA Odds & Betting Pick for Clippers vs. Warriors: Golden State Getting Too Much Love After First Win?

Thursday NBA Odds & Betting Pick for Clippers vs. Warriors: Golden State Getting Too Much Love After First Win? article feature image

Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images. Pictured: Steph Curry

  • The Warriors are a home favorite over the Clippers in Thursday night NBA action (10 p.m. ET, TNT).
  • Steph Curry and Golden State upset the Lakers on the road on Tuesday night, and the Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard tonight and perhaps the whole season.
  • Still, Joe Dellera thinks the market is giving the Warriors too much credit after their opener, and breaks down his Warriors vs. Clippers bet below.

Clippers vs. Warriors Odds

Clippers Odds+3.5
Warriors Odds-3.5
Over/Under222.5 (-110 / -110)
Time10 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Clippers look to kick off their season against a Warriors team that just upset the Lakers to begin their campaign.

While the Clippers sustained a deeper playoff run than the Warriors last year, it was not without consequence as they likely will be without superstar Kawhi Leonard for the bulk of, if not, the entire season.

Will the Warriors start the season with two victories against the teams from L.A., or will the Clippers do what the Lakers could not?

Los Angeles Clippers

As I mentioned before, the Clippers will be without Leonard as he recovers from a torn ACL. They also will be without Serge Ibaka, who remains out due to back surgery.

The Clippers are a bit retooled from last season and I think it's relevant to discuss their roster changes:

Additions: Eric Bledsoe, Isaiah Hartenstein, Justise Winslow, Keon Johnson (21st overall)

Subtractions: Patrick Beverley, Patrick Patterson, Rajon Rondo, Daniel Oturu

The addition of Bledsoe (31) is interesting and one that was necessary. He replaces both Beverley (33) and Rondo (35), who were older and more likely to miss games.

While Beverley may have been a slightly better on-ball defender than Bledsoe, in today's NBA on-ball pressure is less important compared to team defense.

In that respect, Bledsoe is better when switching and playing off-ball defense. This type of defender should benefit the Clippers more considering Paul George can always be deployed in a one-on-one capacity if it is absolutely necessary.

The Clippers ran a bit cold during the preseason, only draining 31.5% of their 3-point attempts, per Cleaning the Glass. However, I don't envision this to be a lasting issue considering they led the league in 3-point percentage last season with a blistering 41.8%.

While the loss of Beverley could hurt this number a bit, the Clippers should still be elite from 3-point range with Marcus Morris Sr., Luke Kennard, Reggie Jackson, Terance Mann, George and Nicolas Batum all topping 40% from 3-point range last season.

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Golden State Warriors

The Warriors showed up on Tuesday night and defeated the Lakers by seven to kick their season off with a win.

They will remain without Klay Thompson and James Wiseman and the status of Jonathan Kuminga (strained patella tendon) is up in the air, per our Action Network Injury Report.

One takeaway from the Warriors' season opener is their barrage of 3 pointers — 41% of their shots came from 3-point range and they sank 35.9% of them.

This is despite Curry shooting just 2-of-8 from 3 and Damion Lee making just 1-of-5. The shot selection the Warriors want is there and they have the ball movement to continue getting good looks.

The big development for the Warriors is the rise of Jordan Poole. His role has continued to increase since his rookie season. After the All-Star Break last season, he averaged 14.4 points per game in 23.4 minutes.

He has plenty of opportunities to secure a significant role while the Warriors await Thompson's return.

Clippers-Warriors Pick

This is a fun matchup, and it'll be good to see the Clippers back in action. This could be a shootout between two teams that rely on the 3-ball.

I'm turning to the spread rather than the total, though.

When underdogs play their first game of the season against a team who has already played, they are 25-13-1 ATS.

I think the Warriors are slightly overvalued in this spot against the Clippers and I'll back the road dogs to cover.

Pick: Clippers +3.5

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Doug Ziefel
Jun 23, 2024 UTC