Hawks vs. Kings Odds, Pick, Prediction: How Trae Young’s Status Determines Betting Value (January 5)

Hawks vs. Kings Odds, Pick, Prediction: How Trae Young’s Status Determines Betting Value (January 5) article feature image

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Atlanta Hawks standup Trae Young.

  • The Hawks are on the West Coast to take on the Kings on Wednesday night.
  • Trae Young's status for this game was up in the air, which hugely affects how bettors should attack the game.
  • Tyler Schmidt breaks down the matchup below and delivers his betting pick.

Hawks vs. Kings Odds

Hawks Odds-1.5
Kings Odds+1.5
Time10 p.m. ET
TVNBA League Pass
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Both the Atlanta Hawks and Kings have been struggling to put together wins this season, but at least this game should be highly entertaining. This matchup features the highest total on the slate at 231 points.

Despite the high total, I think there is value on the line. However, this bet is completely dictated on if Trae Young is able to suit up for the Hawks tonight.

Let's break down both sides of this matchup.

Hawks Continue to Struggle Despite Trae Young's Dominance

After playing in the Eastern conference finals last season, the Hawks have been one of the more disappointing teams this season. Despite the extended postseason field with two extra play-in spots, the Hawks are still on the outside looking in right now. They are currently 16-20 this season and sit 12th in the standings.

Not only are the Hawks playing poorly this season, they have really struggled recently. They have lost 10 of their past 14 games and covered the spread in just three of their past 11 games. On the season they have failed to cover the spread in 22 of their 36 games. They also struggle on the road with an 8-11 record while failing to cover the spread in 12 of those 19 games.

The Hawks are in the middle of their longest road trip of the season. They have lost a few pieces along the way as John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic are both in the COVID protocols. Cam Reddish and Trae Young are both questionable to play tonight; Reddish sat in their last game, but it is hard to see Young missing action especially when the Hawks are struggling.

Young scored a career-high 56 points Monday as he shot 17-for-26 from the field and 7-for-12 from 3-point range. He made all 15 of his free throws and even added 14 assists. He is a crucial part of this team and they desperately need him healthy moving forward. Young is second in the league in scoring with 28.4 points per game and third in the league in assists with 9.5 per game. This game completely changes if Young is unable to play tonight.

Where Young has really excelled is in the third quarter. He is averaging 8.1 points per game in the third quarter, which is the third-highest mark in the league. The Hawks as a team average 29.8 points per game in the third quarter, which ranks second in the NBA. Their matchup against the Kings presents a phenomenal spot. They rank 27th in Defensive Rating and 28th in points allowed with 113.9 per game. If Young can go, the Hawks should fill it up.

Kings in Tricky Back-to-Back Spot 

The Kings are playing the second night of a back-to-back as their game last night against the Los Angeles Lakers went down to the wire. They lost 122-114 to bring their record down to 16-23 this season as they have lost nine of their last 16 games.

Like the Hawks, the Kings are not playing well recently whatsoever. They've had troubles covering the spread this season as they have failed to cover the spread in 22 of their 39 games. Also similar to the Hawks, the game total has been nearly identical going 51% under and 49% over. It is tough to find value on the total in this matchup for both teams. The total is also 50/50 over and under in their 12 games as favorites.

The Kings have some COVID protocols issues and injuries of their own. Both of their starting frontcourt players, Richaun Holmes and Chimezie Metu, are out and Terence Davis sat out last night due to injury. The Kings have been starting Damian Jones at center and Marvin Bagley III at power forward. Regardless of who starts, the Kings have still allow the most points in the paint this season at 53.0 per game.

De'Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton continue to be the leaders of this young Kings squad. Fox leads the Kings in points averaging 20.6 per game. This is the third-straight season Fox has averaged more than 20 points per game. Haliburton seems to do the rest leading the Kings in assists and steals, while also scoring 13.3 points per game. These two guards will need a big game once again tonight and to push the pace as the Hawks only rank 19th in Pace this season.

Unlike the Hawks, the Kings third quarters have been very poor. They average 26.4 points per game in the third quarter, which ranks 21st in the league. Coming out for the second half is a crucial part of the game and the Hawks clearly have the edge. The Kings better make some better halftime adjustments tonight. That all usually comes down to the coaching staff.

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Hawks-Kings Pick

This game all depends on the status of Young. I would wait until we hear that news before placing a bet on this game. There are two options that I like depending on Young's status:

  • If Trae Young plays, I love the Atlanta Hawks Third Quarter line. I would imagine it will be close to a PK or maybe a slight lean to the Hawks -0.5, but that is my favorite bet if Young is able to play tonight.
  • If Trae Young doesn't play, I would take the Sacramento Kings moneyline. The line is currently at even-money. If you anticipate Young being out ahead of time, you can certainly take this line now. However, I am going to wait until we get the Trae Young news before taking a bet on this game.

Pick: Hawks Third Quarter OR Kings Moneyline (+100)

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Nick Sterling
Jun 22, 2024 UTC