How NBA Playoffs Series Odds Prices Have Changed Heading Into Game 2
Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors.
Series prices are a fantastic way to extract some value out of the NBA Playoffs — especially during the first round, and especially on underdogs or mispriced favorites.
Only one underdog won Game 1 on Saturday and Sunday, so most of the market is horrible if you like the higher seed — but there’s plenty of value to be gleaned if you like the opposing side.
A notable value play may be on the Nets, who only fell via buzzer beater in a nail-biter on Sunday afternoon. The odds for each team to win the series opened at roughly a pick ’em in what prognosticators indicated would be the most contentious series in the first round. Some books had the Nets as favorites.
Then, sharp bettors moved the line in favor of Boston shortly after open.
Heading into Game 1, the Celtics were -130 favorites to advance at FanDuel. A tight win on Sunday was good enough to lengthen their odds to -205.
The Nets’ odds conversely jumped to +184 at FanDuel after Game 1 — up from +110. Sharp and big moneyed bettors promptly dropped the market back down to +172.
The only underdog to win Game 1 was the Timberwolves, who dominated almost wire-to-wire in their win over the Grizzlies in Memphis and pushed their series odds from its open at +260 at FanDuel to +105.
That’s an increase of implied probability of over 21%. The Timberwolves had a roughly 28% implied probability to win the series last week — now, that’s surged to 49%.
The Grizzlies had been -300 favorites to win the series prior to Saturday.
Every other favorite won, including the Jazz, the only road favorite on the docket on account of Luka Doncic’s injury. Utah are now -620 to win the series after having opened at -215. They’re also -220 favorites to win Game 2.
The Bucks had the most precipitous change in odds from -700 to -3000 despite a shaky Game 1 win.
The Warriors (-550), Heat (-770), 76ers (-550) and Suns (-3500) all saw their series odds move drastically after Game 1 wins. The 76ers in particular had opened as -175 favorites, but large-scale injuries in the Raptors camp has oddsmakers giving Philadelphia a roughly 85% chance of winning the series.
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