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Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds, Pick, Prediction: Betting Value on Dallas? (January 25)

Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds, Pick, Prediction: Betting Value on Dallas? (January 25) article feature image
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Tim Heitman/Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic.

  • The Dallas Mavericks head to the Bay Area on Tuesday night to take on the Golden State Warriors.
  • These teams have been trending in opposite directions, as the Mavs have been on a roll but the Dubs have struggled.
  • Joe Dellera shares his top bet for this game below.

Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds

Mavericks Odds +3.5
Warriors Odds -3.5
Over/Under 210.5
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks head to the Bay Area to take on the Golden State Warriors in a showdown between two teams that have gotten significantly closer in the standings over the past few weeks.

Let’s break down this matchup between two of the West’s best.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have been red-hot of late and have won eight of their last 10 games while climbing the Western Conference standings.

They finally have been healthy, and that has helped them during this stretch. For today’s contest, they will be without Sterling Brown (foot), but they have removed Frank Ntilikina (illness) from the injury report.

The Mavericks have been solid this season with the eighth-best adjusted Net Rating, +2.6, and they’ve been carried by their defense, which is fourth in the league at 106.8. But over the last two weeks, they’ve locked down the clamps even more, and they are allowing just 102.6 points per 100 possessions while securing five wins across seven games.

During this hot streak, the Mavericks have seen a sharp uptick in their rebounding rate, and they’ve secured 51.4% of rebounds available per game and 75.3% of defensive rebounds, per NBA Advanced Stats.

They have managed to limit their opponents’ second-chance opportunities,  and when this is coupled with the seventh-best allowed eFG% (51.5%), this is a lethal combo.

Unfortunately for the Warriors, not only does Dallas limit 3 point attempts, but it has the fourth-best 3-point percentage allowed at just 33.9%, per Cleaning the Glass.

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Golden State Warriors

The Warriors have tried to stay afloat without Draymond Green, but since he last played, they are just 5-6 and have scored only 103.3 points per game.

Besides Draymond, the Warriors will be without Andre Iguodala (injury management), and Klay Thompson (knee) is questionable for this game.

A major issue for the Warriors over the last two weeks is that their offense is sluggish. The offense has not been lighting the league on fire, as it’s scored 110.9 points per 100 possessions, which is about league average. Over the last two weeks, the Dubs have mustered just 108.8, 23rd in the league, per Cleaning the Glass.

It has become increasingly notable how Green’s absence hurts this offense, and it does not help that Stephen Curry is mired in one of the worst shooting slumps of his career. Curry is shooting 29.9% from 3 point range and just 35.9% from the field in January.

Those numbers are far off from his career stats of 42.9% from 3 and 47.3% from the floor.

Mavericks-Warriors Pick

This matchup pits two teams that are moving in slightly opposite directions. While the Warriors have been able to handle the “bad” teams, they have struggled against the league’s best without Green.

On the flip side, Dallas is 3-1 this month against the league’s top-10 teams in point differential, and it’s held opponents to just 94.9 points per 100 possessions in those four games, the top mark in the league since Jan. 1.

Dallas is healthy and should be able to lock down this slumping Warriors’ offense. While Curry is always able to snap out of a slump, there are no specific signs that he should be able to do so tonight, especially against this elite Maverick’s defense.

Over its last 10 games, Dallas is 8-2 straight up and 6-3-1 against the spread, while the Warriors are just 5-5 SU and 3-6-1 ATS.

Golden State is slumping, and Dallas is the healthier and better team right now,. The Mavericks are more than capable of covering this spread and even winning this one outright.

Pick: Mavericks +3.5 | Mavericks ML +130

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